US embassy cable - 05MANILA5130

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MANILA 005130 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, DRL 
 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PINS, SOCI, KDEM, RP 
SUBJECT:  THE INC AND EL SHADDAI: TWO PHILIPPINE RELIGIOUS 
GROUPS WITH POLITICAL CLOUT 
 
1.  (U) This message is Sensitive but Unclassified -- Please 
protect accordingly. 
 
2.  (SBU) Summary:  The Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) and the 
charismatic El Shaddai Catholic group are politically active 
and their leaders retain significant influence on national 
politics.  This influence was highlighted by a highly- 
publicized joint statement issued by the two groups on 
October 20 that called for an end to political bickering. 
Candidates from political parties across the spectrum 
actively seek the two groups' endorsement because their 
members are more likely than other groups to vote as a bloc 
and are therefore a strategic swing vote in close electoral 
races.  Continuing voter registration by overseas Filipinos, 
among whom these groups have a large following, has the 
potential to further increase INC and El Shaddai influence 
in the years ahead.  End Summary. 
 
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Religious Leaders Call for End to Political Bickering 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
3.  (U) On October 20, two of the Philippines' most 
influential religious groups issued a rare joint statement 
on the political situation.  The statement issued in the 
names of INC Executive Minister Erano "Ka Erdie" Manalo and 
El Shaddai leader Mariano "Mike" Velarde appealed to 
administration and Opposition leaders to "end the political 
bickering that has been going on for months" for the sake of 
the national interest.  They called on politicians to focus 
instead on "the pressing needs of our people," which they 
said were being neglected as a result of the ongoing 
political turmoil.  The statement received widespread 
publicity.  Many politicians, including President Arroyo, 
publicly noted the statement, thanking the INC and El 
Shaddai for their effort to end the political turbulence in 
the country. 
 
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A High Degree of Political Influence 
------------------------------------ 
 
4.  (SBU) The statement and the reaction to it highlighted 
the influence that the INC and El Shaddai maintain in 
Philippine politics.  Before every election, candidates from 
most parties actively seek the endorsement of these two 
groups.  Both the INC and El Shaddai consistently have been 
active in supporting candidates and are believed to vote as 
a bloc in elections, though the extent of the groups' impact 
on actual electoral outcomes is debated.  Most observers 
agree, however, that their support can be decisive in close 
races.  Of the two, INC members are believed to be more 
likely to vote as a bloc (see paras 7-11). 
 
5.  (U) The combined voting bloc of INC and El Shaddai 
members is estimated at two to three million nationwide, 
according to pollsters and political analysts, but some 
estimates run much higher.  Local pollsters say that El 
Shaddai has an estimated total membership of three to four 
million and the INC of two to four million.  However, the 
2000 Census only recorded 1.8 million INC members, up from 
1.4 million in 1990, so the more conservative estimates are 
probably correct.  El Shaddai's numbers are not 
disaggregated from those of Roman Catholics in the national 
census. 
 
6.  (U) Membership numbers alone do not account for the 
INC's influence.  The INC has gained power and influence far 
beyond its size by using its endorsements strategically. 
Filipino political analysts say that local politicians often 
instruct their followers to support the presidential 
candidate endorsed by Erano Manalo in return for INC support 
in their own races, in effect multiplying a small INC vote 
into a larger vote nationally (El Shaddai endorsement of a 
candidate has a similar impact).  As a result, the INC bloc 
is a strategic swing vote at the national level, especially 
in multiparty electoral contests for the Senate.  Political 
observers say that at the local level, especially in Luzon, 
the INC-endorsed vote can determine the fate of a candidate. 
 
----------------------------- 
Swing Votes = Electoral Clout 
----------------------------- 
 
7.  (U) The late Ferdinand Marcos and his wife Imelda 
brought the INC into a position of prominence alongside the 
dominant Catholic Church and various Protestant churches. 
The Marcoses paid periodic visits to the INC headquarters in 
Quezon City and were regulars at Erano's birthday 
celebrations.  Consequently, the INC supported Marcos, even 
directing members to vote for him in the 1986 elections 
(this seriously divided the church, and many members voted 
for Corazon Aquino despite the directive). 
 
8.  (SBU) Since 1986, both groups have been active in 
supporting candidates in elections.  When the INC and El 
Shaddai effectively endorsed Arroyo in May 2004, they 
probably played a decisive role in electing her.  Arroyo 
defeated her closest rival (Fernando Poe Jr., who was also 
seeking the groups' endorsement) by a mere 3.5 percent of 
votes cast -- or slightly more than 1.1 million votes. 
 
9.  (U) The INC supported Estrada even after his removal 
from the presidency and arrest in 2001, and was expected to 
support the Opposition candidate against Arroyo in 2004. 
However, the failure of the Opposition to unite under either 
Senator Lacson or Poe contributed to the INC's pragmatic 
decision to opt for Arroyo. 
 
10.  (U) At least nine of the twelve Senate candidates 
endorsed by the INC in 2004 were elected, although its 
members' votes were not necessarily the decisive factor. 
Observers credited INC votes for a half dozen Senate-seat 
victories in the 2001 elections. 
 
11.  (U) During the 2001 mid-term elections, INC members 
formed an estimated three percent of voters -- compared to 
84 percent for Catholics and one percent for the Catholic El 
Shaddai (this figure, lower than its estimated 3.2 percent 
share of the electorate, is probably because voters 
identified themselves as Catholics rather than El Shaddai, 
not because fewer of them voted) -- and INC's voting bloc 
was estimated 80 percent solid, translating into 800,000 to 
one million votes.  Days before the elections in May 2001, 
soldiers surrounded the INC's headquarters in Quezon City 
after intelligence officials heard reports of a coup being 
planned there.  In reaction, the INC removed its endorsement 
of some candidates who were part of the pro-Arroyo People 
Power Coalition.  Arroyo went to the INC's headquarters the 
next day to apologize, thus successfully restoring the INC's 
support for her candidates. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Snapshots of Political Influence 
-------------------------------- 
 
12.  (U) There is considerable anecdotal evidence that 
places a spotlight on the influence of the INC and El 
Shaddai.  According to press reports, for example, while he 
was a senior police officer Senator Panfilo Lacson faced a 
dilemma over how to fire a controversial police colonel who 
was an INC member.  "Lacson had to go to the central INC 
headquarters to secure permission to fire [the officer]," 
according to an INC member quoted in the press.  During the 
2001 elections, observers noted that Lacson made it a point 
to call on the INC leadership in every locality he visited 
on the campaign trail. 
 
13.  (U) President Arroyo is often present at El Shaddai 
celebrations and rallies.  In addition, Vice President Noli 
de Castro, Speaker Jose de Venecia, Senator Manuel "Mar" 
Roxas and former president Estrada (who was temporarily 
allowed out of house arrest for the event) all attended the 
recent El Shaddai Anniversary and Brother Mike's birthday 
celebration on August 21.  Brother Mike is the "spiritual 
adviser" of former president Estrada's family and of First 
Gentleman Mike Arroyo.  Secretary of the Department of 
Environment and Natural Resources Michael Defensor is also 
known to maintain close ties to the INC. 
 
14.  (SBU) Political support for the government has brought 
apparent rewards.  For example, the 1998-2001 Estrada 
cabinet included two influential INC members.  El Shaddai's 
spokesperson Mel Robles is Administrator of the Light Rail 
Transit Administration.  President Arroyo also awarded a 353- 
million peso (USD 6.3 million) housing loan grant to Brother 
Mike's Amvel Land Development Corporation in November 2004, 
a move criticized by some as politically motivated. 
 
15.  (U) In addition, Velarde -- or "Brother Mike" as he is 
popularly known -- has been active in recent efforts to 
bring together the Opposition and President Arroyo in an 
effort to end the political turmoil.  Together with other 
influential figures, Brother Mike is calling for an early 
presidential election in 2007 and for Arroyo to form a 
coalition cabinet in the meantime.  Velarde had previously 
also proposed a referendum on whether Arroyo should finish 
her term, which is scheduled to run through 2010. 
 
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Background:  The Iglesia ni Cristo 
---------------------------------- 
 
16.  (U) Felix Y. Manalo founded the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) 
in 1914.  He died in 1963 and his fifth son Erano ("Ka 
Erdie") was elected as his successor and is now the 
Executive Minister of the church; his grandson Eduardo is 
Deputy Executive Minister.  They and sixteen other senior 
ministers compose the Church Council, which issues edicts 
ranging from personal behavior to which candidates to vote 
for in elections.  The INC is modeled after the Seventh Day 
Adventist and Christian and Missionary Alliance churches. 
It uses the Tagalog language in all its services.  The INC 
is known throughout the Philippines for its large white 
Romanesque-style churches, which are spotlessly clean and 
surrounded by high walls. 
 
17.  (SBU) Pasugo ("God's Message"), the church's official 
publication, asserts that the INC is the "one true" 
Christian church.  INC believes that the Christian Church 
"apostatized" after the first century, and that Felix Manalo 
-- God's "last messenger" and the fulfillment of Biblical 
prophecies -- restored the church to its original purity. 
It has an authoritarian, highly centralized structure and is 
extremely wary of outsiders.  (Note:  An INC member who is 
poloff's acquaintance was extremely evasive about discussing 
specifics about the church; he would only assert that the 
INC does not mix church and state, and that it is not 
beholden to any political party or group.  End Note.) 
 
18.  (U) The INC has a media presence to spread its message. 
It owns Eagle Broadcasting Corporation, and broadcasts 
religious programs on DZEM-AM radio station and the Net-25 
television station.  INC also owns and operates New Era 
University (which has multiple branches) and a hospital in 
Manila. 
 
----------------------- 
Background:  El Shaddai 
----------------------- 
 
19.  (SBU) El Shaddai (Hebrew for "God Almighty") is a 
Catholic charismatic renewal movement established in 1984 by 
Brother Mike Velarde.  El Shaddai had its beginnings in a 
religious radio program on Brother Mike's DWXI AM station in 
August 1983, when he shared his "miraculous healing" from 
heart disease.  A year later, Brother Mike formally 
organized the El Shaddai DWXI "Prayer Partners Foundation 
International" as an institution to support the broadcasts 
of the station.  The aim of El Shaddai is to revive the 
"true Christian spirit" of the Catholic faith.  Brother 
Mike's preaching of "miracles and healing" popularized El 
Shaddai.  El Shaddai sometimes has had a tricky relationship 
with the Roman Catholic hierarchy (the church respects 
Brother Mike, but is worried that he at times makes 
unapproved statements on doctrine, politics, etc.). 
 
20.  (U) The movement eventually evolved into a weekly 
gathering of thousands of Filipinos for prayer, healing, and 
worship broadcast on national TV.  It is now considered the 
largest Catholic charismatic group in the Philippines, and 
claims to have more than 200,000 card-carrying "covenant" 
members, as well as five million "non-covenant" members 
worldwide who regularly attend prayer meetings.  El Shaddai 
has congregations in the USA, Canada, Hong Kong, the Middle 
East, Italy, and Japan, among other places. 
 
21.   (U) Brother Mike's deputy and heir-apparent is his son 
Franklin, who is Chairman and Executive Coordinator of El 
Shaddai.  Another son, Rene Velarde, is one of two members 
that the El Shaddai-backed party-list group "Buhay" ("Life" 
in Tagalog) has in the House of Representatives. 
 
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Comment 
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22.  (SBU) The INC's and El Shaddai's high degree of 
political influence appears set to continue in years to 
come.  Most signs indicate that both groups continue to grow 
in size and -- as with the October 20 statement -- every 
indication is that the groups will continue to try to exert 
influence on the political scene.  Both groups should also 
benefit as increasing numbers of Overseas Filipino Workers 
(OFWs) register to vote (they had the chance to vote for the 
first time in 2004, but only did so in limited numbers). 
Given the fact that over eight million Filipinos live and 
work overseas, the votes of OFW INC and El Shaddai members 
could significantly increase the two groups' respective 
influence in national politics in the years ahead. 
 
JONES