US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4443

UNCLAS TAIPEI 004443 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
DEPT FOR EAP/TC, INR/EAP 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TW 
SUBJECT:  DPP Candidates Suffer Setback 
 
 
1.  Recent newspaper polling indicated that southern DPP 
candidates have suffered a serious setback in terms of 
popularity after the opposition exposed a picture of former 
Presidential Office Deputy Secretary-general Chen Che-nan 
gambling with former KRTC Vice Chairman Chen Min-hsien in a 
Korean casino.  The photo suggested not only that Chen Che- 
nan has been lying about his relationship with Chen Min- 
hsien, but also buttressed the opposition's allegations 
about Chen Che-nan's role in the KRTC scandal.  Although 
Chen Che-nan has been expelled by the DPP, allegations 
against him of corruption have exposed DPP candidates to an 
increased challenge in the upcoming 3 in 1 elections. 
 
2.  According to a China Times poll conducted on October 
26, compared to last month, the popularity of DPP 
candidates in Chiayi City and Pingtung County dropped 
sharply. In Chiayi City, DPP mayoral candidate Chen Li- 
chen's popularity dropped from 30 percent to 19 percent 
whereas KMT candidate Huang Min-hui's popularity increased 
from 29 percent to 38 percent.  Regarding the candidates' 
chances of winning, 28 percent of the respondents believe 
the KMT candidate will win whereas 14 percent believe the 
DPP candidate will win. 
 
3.  This new election trend breaks the previously tense 
neck-to-neck race in the Chiayi mayoral election.  KMT 
Chiayi City Chapter officials said although the polling 
result is encouraging, they will continue campaigning hard 
since 34 percent of the voters have not decided for whom to 
vote.  DPP Chiayi City Chapter officials said that they are 
still optimistic about the election, noting that DPP 
supporters only really reveal their preferences at the 
voting booth. 
 
4.  In Pingtung County, DPP candidate Tsao Chi-hung's 
popularity dropped from 23 percent to 16 percent while the 
popularity of KMT candidate Wang Chin-shi and independent 
candidate Soong Li-hua remain unchanged at 19 percent and 
11 percent respectively.  Regarding the chances of winning, 
21 percent of the polled still said they would bet on the 
DPP candidate winning whereas 9 percent of the polled would 
bet on the KMT and 9 percent would bet on the independent 
candidate. 
 
5.  It is worth noting that the percentage of Pingtung 
voters who said they would not cast ballots has increased 
from 6 percent to 13 percent.  Election analysts pointed 
out that the increase coincidently equates with the 
decrease of DPP candidate's popularity, noting the increase 
was mostly comprised of strong Pan Green supporters that 
feel disappointed with what they see now as a corrupt DPP 
administration. 
 
 
THIELE 
 
PAAL