US embassy cable - 05MANILA5126

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 005126 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR PM, S/CT, INR/EAP, EAP, EAP/RSP, AND EAP/MTS 
NSC FOR GREEN 
SECDEF/OSD/ISA/AP FOR ALLEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2015 
TAGS: PTER, PREL, ASEC, PINS, MOPS, RP 
SUBJECT: S/CT AMBASSADOR CRUMPTON'S TALKS WITH GRP OFFICIALS 
 
REF: A. MANILA 5004 
 
     B. MANILA 5018 
 
Classified By: (U) Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Paul Jones 
for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
1.  (S/REL AUSTRALIA) SUMMARY.  Philippine Foreign Secretary 
Romulo and Executive Secretary Ermita told visiting S/CT 
Ambassador Crumpton they are optimistic about peace talks 
with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), believing MILF 
Chairman Murad has the ability to sell an agreement to his 
rank and file.  However, despite the MILF leadership's 
apparent commitment to fight terrorism, elements of the MILF 
continue to provide sanctuary to Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and 
Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) terrorists.  Philippine analysts 
believe the JI in the Philippines has split into two 
coordinated, but separate factions.  The bomb-making training 
provided by the faction associated with Dulmatin and Patek 
has given the ASG significance beyond its limited numbers, 
and there are worrying signs of efforts to construct vehicle 
borne explosive devices and interest in chemical-biological 
weapons.  The radical Rajah Solaiman Movement (RSM) is a 
concern, as well as Saudi-origin terrorist financing.  Armed 
Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Vice Chief of Staff Vice 
Admiral De Los Reyes sees the Balikatan 02-1 "Basilan model" 
of civil-military operations and improved counterterrorism 
training as a template for other counterterrorism efforts. 
Executive Secretary Ermita praised the USG rewards program as 
an effective tool in efforts to track down terrorists.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C/REL AUSTRALIA) In a series of October 21 meetings, 
Counterterrorism Coordinator Ambassador Henry Crumpton, 
accompanied by Charge Jones, met all major figures in the 
GRP's counterterrorism community.  Meetings included 
discussions with Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita, 
Secretary of Foreign Affairs Alberto Romulo, Armed Forces of 
 
SIPDIS 
the Philippines (AFP) Vice Chief of Staff Vice Admiral 
Ariston De Los Reyes, Philippine National Police (PNP) Deputy 
Chief for Operations Avelino Razon, and officials at the 
National Intelligence Coordinating Agency (NICA) and the 
Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG).  (See 
reftels for reporting on Charge Jones' and Ambassador 
Crumpton's meetings with President Arroyo and Secretary of 
National Defense Cruz.) 
 
PROGRESS IN MILF TALKS 
---------------------- 
 
3.  (C/REL AUSTRALIA) Secretary of Foreign Affairs Romulo 
told Charge Jones and Ambassador Crumpton that MILF and GRP 
negotiators were "almost there" on the issue of ancestral 
domain, and forging ahead on other issues, with the mutual 
sense that self-government was the key to a solution.  Romulo 
signaled out Malaysia, but also Indonesia and Brunei, for 
their positive roles in supporting the peace process.  He 
said he believed the question of governance could be 
addressed as part of federalism in the charter change 
process, and Chairman Al Hadj Murad had the ability to sell a 
peace agreement to the MILF rank and file. 
 
4.  (S/REL AUSTRALIA) Executive Secretary Ermita separately 
praised the MILF leadership for being "reasonable."  During 
the last six to eight months, the MILF as a whole had been 
"very cooperative" against JI and ASG operatives, manifesting 
a commitment to combat terrorism.  Nonetheless, MILF 
elements, particularly those associated with the Special 
Operations Group (SOG), continued to provide sanctuary to 
terrorists. 
 
5.  (S/REL AUSTRALIA) Ermita observed the designation of the 
Communist Party of the Philippines/New People's Army 
(CPP/NPA) as a terrorist organization had had a strategic 
impact, cutting off the CPP/NPA's ties to foreign funds. 
Although not yet ready to designate the MILF as a terrorist 
organization because of the peace talks, Ermita said he was 
using the threat of designation as "a sword of Damocles" to 
encourage the MILF to negotiate.  He claimed the MILF 
leadership was "scared stiff" of the prospect of being 
designated as terrorists. 
 
INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY: 
PHILIPPINES FACES MULTIPLE TERRORIST THREATS 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C/REL AUSTRALIA) An overview briefing at NICA 
highlighted the multiple threats confronting the GRP. 
Uncertain economic conditions had led to growth in the 
CPP/NPA insurgency.  Although the number of ASG terrorists 
had declined, JI influence and training had given the ASG 
significance beyond its limited numbers. 
 
7.  (S/REL AUSTRALIA) According to NICA analysts, the JI 
organization in the Philippines has split into two separate, 
but coordinated, factions: one, the Philippine-based JI unit 
Wakallah Hudeiba or WAHUD, and another, smaller spin-off 
grouped around Dulmatin and Patek.  This second faction had 
provided short courses on improvised explosive devices (IEDs) 
to the ASG, RSM, and elements of the MILF's SOG, indicating 
these groups were now collaborating. 
 
8.  (S/REL AUSTRALIA) The February 2004 Superferry 14 bombing 
and the February 2005 "Valentine's Day" bombings in Mindanao 
and Manila indicated terrorist bomb-making skills were 
becoming more sophisticated, employing cellphone detonators, 
a JI signature.  The discovery of 600 kilograms of explosive 
materials in Manila shortly after the "Valentine's Day" 
bombings indicated terrorist interest in constructing a 
vehicle borne IED using methodology similar to the 2002 Bali 
bombing.  A clear terrorist interest in chemical-biological 
weapons, revealed by the discovery of "cookbooks" during an 
October 2003 raid on a Cotabato safehouse used by Taufiq 
Rifqe, and a growing predisposition towards jihadist language 
and martyrdom were additional worrying signs.  Given this 
evidence, NICA analysts expressed strong skepticism about the 
claim of some observers that the JI had shifted its approach 
from Jihad to Islamization. 
 
9.  (S/REL AUSTRALIA) In a separate discussion of the JI 
terrorist threat, PNP Deputy Director General (three-star 
equivalent) Razon noted cultural, linguistic, and racial 
similarities allowed JI terrorists from Indonesia to slip 
easily into the Philippines through its porous back door and 
blend in with the local population in Mindanao.  (Note. 
Chief Superintendent Ismael Rafanan, Director of the PNP's 
Intelligence Group, observed JI operatives, in order to 
counter successful GRP efforts to monitor their cell phones, 
had begun using couriers in some areas.  End Note.) 
According to Razon, President Arroyo is focused on this 
threat, and had directed an increased PNP presence in 
southern Filipino ports to screen arriving passengers.  He 
noted GRP officials had better contacts in Malaysia than in 
Indonesia, where "the set up was different."  Razon said his 
goal was to improve ties with his Indonesian counterparts. 
 
10.  (S/REL AUSTRALIA) Vice Admiral De Los Reyes, the AFP 
Vice Chief of Staff, stated the growth of the RSM, composed 
of radicalized Christian converts to Islam, was one of the 
AFP's greatest concerns.  The ability of RSM adherents to 
"blend in" made them much more dangerous than their Muslim 
counterparts.  RSM members perpetrated the 2004 Superferry 14 
attack and were involved in the 2005 "Valentine's Day" 
bombings.  Separately Malacanang Undersecretary Ric 
Blancaflor noted the RSM numbered roughly 300 radicals, i.e., 
approximately one percent of the broader Balik Islam 
movement, which did not espouse terrorism.  Echoing De Los 
Reyes' concerns, Blancaflor observed that RSM members were 
literate and urban, operating in financially independent and 
self-sustaining cells, with some operatives having training 
in JI camps in Mindanao. 
 
11.  (S/REL AUSTRALIA) Philippine officials noted their 
continuing concern about Saudi-origin terrorist financing 
coming into the Philippines under the cover of donations to 
mosques, orphanages, and madrassahs.  Although three Saudi 
nationals suspected of being couriers had been detained on 
separate occasions, Saudi Ambassador Wali had intervened in 
each case to secure their release.  PNP Chief Superintendent 
Rafanan admitted the GRP had limited understanding of the 
scope and nature of the terrorism financing problem in the 
Philippines, conceding it was a "work in progress." 
 
SUCCESS OF THE "BASILAN MODEL" 
AND INCORPORATING LESSONS LEARNED 
--------------------------------- 
 
12.  (C/REL AUSTRALIA) AFP Vice Chief of Staff De Los Reyes 
noted the success of the "Basilan model" in the Philippines, 
i.e., the combined use of civil-military operations and 
improved counterterrorism training to take back the former 
ASG stronghold of Basilan during exercise Balikatan 02-1. 
Socio-economic conditions continue to improve on the island, 
proving the importance of humanitarian affairs/civil affairs 
in the fight against terrorism.  US support had helped a lot 
in this, and other counterterrorism efforts, De Los Reyes 
said.  Ambassador Crumpton agreed Basilan represented the 
template -- socio-economic and tactical -- of a successful 
counterterrorism operation. 
 
13.  (S/REL AUSTRALIA) The AFP Deputy Chief of Staff for 
Intelligence (J2), Rear Admiral Danga, observed that the 
difficult terrain in central Mindanao, coupled with the 
sanctuary provided by some MILF commanders, continued to 
hamper operations against ASG and JI operatives.  However, 
the AFP was incorporating the lessons learned from its past 
operations, and hoped to employ US-supplied proximity fuses 
to good effect once intelligence identified an appropriate 
target. 
 
COUNTING THE VOTES FOR ANTI-TERRORISM LEGISLATION 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
14.  (C/REL AUSTRALIA) Undersecretary Blancaflor, who is 
shepherding the Arroyo Administration's efforts to pass a 
comprehensive anti-terrorism bill, was cautiously optimistic 
about its chances of passing.  Although he expected 
Opposition Senators to grandstand, 16 out of 23 Senators had 
signed the committee report endorsing the draft legislation, 
and Senate President Drilon supported its passage.  In the 
236-member House, Blancaflor predicted nine CPP/NPA party 
list members, 30 Opposition Congressman, and 12 Muslim 
Congressman would oppose the bill.  Another 50-60 
pro-Administration lawmakers for various reasons likewise 
opposed its passage; however, Blancaflor predicted these 
Congressmen would fall into line once pushed by Speaker De 
Venecia. 
 
PRAISE FOR USG REWARDS PROGRAM 
------------------------------ 
 
15.  (S/REL AUSTRALIA) Executive Secretary Ermita praised the 
USG rewards programs, saying "Jesse James posters work."  He 
cited the example of ASG leader Hamsiraji Sali, whose first 
cousin had led Scout Rangers to his hideout.  The publication 
of the $10 million reward for the JI terrorist Dulmatin had 
generated a lot of publicity and stimulated efforts to track 
him down, Ermita said, calling the USG rewards effort "quite 
effective." 
 
 
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Jones