US embassy cable - 05MINSK1352

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001352 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, BO 
SUBJECT: Grodno Trip A Success, Attracts Attention 
 
Ref: A) Minsk 1327, B) Minsk 1003, C) Minsk 1078 
 
Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Poloffs visited 10+ opposition candidate 
Aleksandr Milinkevich's hometown of Grodno on October 25. 
Due to the usual government harassment, the independent 
press has become largely internet based and hopes Western 
countries will continue with plans to broadcast radio news 
to Belarus.  Opposition activists, though sharing different 
views, claim to be united behind Milinkevich and the 
ousting of Lukashenko while the Union of Belarusian Poles 
(UBP) continues to struggle against the GOB and its new UBP 
leadership.  Poloffs, at the request of the local ideology 
officer, also spoke with the mayor, who claimed that Grodno 
has few problems.  End Summary. 
 
Independent Press Goes Electronic 
--------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Poloffs arrived in the western city of Grodno on 
October 25 and, similar to emboffs' visit to Slutsk (ref 
A), were followed by a police vehicle throughout the visit. 
Pol Chief first met with representatives of the independent 
press.  Due to the authorities' strong restrictions and 
interference, most of the independent news has become 
internet based.  Irina Chernyavka of Belgazeta complained 
that her news site only reaches a few demographic groups, 
primarily students, because the blue-collar workforce and 
pensioners usually do not own computers or are unfamiliar 
with the internet.  The government also owns the 
communications monopoly Beltelecom and the BKGB has a 
special department that monitors Belarusian cyber space. 
Following the closure of a Grodno-based internet site and 
the arrest of a local creator of cartoons mocking 
Lukashenko (ref B), the local authorities unofficially 
introduced a new rule that all people must present their 
passports before using computers at internet cafes and 
libraries. 
 
3. (C) Not long into the meeting, two men entered the room, 
introduced themselves as regional ideology officers and 
asked to be present during the meeting.  One of the men was 
using a video camera.  Nikolai Markevich, editor of the 
troubled Den' newspaper, kindly told the men it was a 
private meeting and that they could wait outside.  The 
ideology officers promptly left and waited in the hallway. 
 
4. (C) Markevich and his colleagues noted the importance of 
radio broadcasts from Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and Latvia 
because they would be able to reach the villages in the 
border area where residents only receive state-media and 
are subjected to non-stop propaganda.  According to 
Chernyavka, most government news is inaccurate because 
businesses, universities and other institutions are afraid 
to give the GOB accurate information for fear of attracting 
unwanted attention. [Comment: Markevich also blamed the 
delay in independent press development on cooperation 
between Belarus and Russian secret services and the 
laziness of American bureaucrats.] 
 
Political Cooperation? 
---------------------- 
 
5. (C) Pol Chief met with members of the local Belarusian 
Popular Front (BPF), United Civic Party (UCP), Belarusian 
Party of Communists (BPC), and the Belarusian Social 
Democratic Party Gramada (BSDP).  Even though the various 
representatives rarely meet in such a large group, they 
claimed to be in contact with each other and united in 
support for Milinkevich.  Yuri Istomin of the UCP admitted 
that UCP members were upset that Lebedko did not win the 
single candidate bid, but despite this, his local group is 
dedicated to supporting Milinkevich.  Vladimir Kisilevich, 
whose BSDP party supports Aleksandr Kozulin, disagreed and 
considered the Congress of Democratic Forces as only the 
first step towards choosing a true single candidate.  All 
agreed that elections would not be free or fair and, 
therefore, they must begin mobilizing citizens for street 
actions.  Sergei Malchik of the BPF predicts that after the 
2006 elections, opposition supporters will face massive job 
loss as they did after the 2001 elections.  Therefore, if 
10,000 people do not protest in Grodno and 100,000 do not 
protest in Minsk, the opposition will lose and be forced 
underground. 
6. (C) The activists disseminate information about 
opposition politics and regional problems via Narodnaya 
Volya and the Polish-financed newspaper Niva. [Note: On 
October 31, Grodno police confiscated from Istomin 3,500 
copies of Narodnaya Volya.  To date they are still in 
police custody.] They were printing bulletins, but the BKGB 
confiscated most of their materials.  However, they are 
currently working on another bulletin issue as well as some 
leaflets, hoping to print at least 20,000.  Malchik noted 
that the Grodno opposition would soon assign each person 
his/her duties for the information campaign ahead of the 
elections.  Istomin noted that the biggest problem would be 
reaching rural residents in the villages and on farms. 
 
Poles Still Facing Pressure 
--------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Pol Chief had lunch with Union of Belarusian Poles 
(UBP) journalists Andrei Pisalnik and Andrei Pochubot. 
Pochubot spoke about the GOB's control over the media and 
noted its interference in foreign news transmissions.  On 
October 24, the Polish-based television channel Pulsar was 
to air a program on the GOB's treatment of the UBP. 
However, as the program was about to begin, the channel 
became scrambled.  Pochubot called the local private 
broadcasting company Garant and was told that the Ministry 
of Information had ordered Garant to scramble the 
transmission. 
 
7. (C) The two activists told stories of the GOB's campaign 
against the UBP.  Even though 90 percent of Grodno's Poles 
still support the ousted leader Angelica Boris (ref C), the 
authorities would not allow her to assume her position as 
chair of the UBP.  Fearful of any reprisals from Boris 
sympathizers, the authorities have placed police officers 
around UBP headquarters, the House of Poles.  Schools are 
teaching less Polish to students and the authorities still 
refuse to accept any petitions from the UBP.  Pisalnik 
thanked the opposition parties for their support, which 
showed many non-Polish residents that the authorities were 
at fault, not the UBP.  Pochubot and Pisalnik themselves 
have been in and out of jail and/or heavily fined for their 
journalistic and UBP activities.  On October 26, a Grodno 
court rescinded the travel restriction that the police had 
place on Pochubot. 
 
Special Interests 
----------------- 
 
8. (C) Poloffs met Valentin Oskirko of Malady Front and a 
student self-government NGO, Tatiana Konopkina of the 
Belarusian School Society, Sergey Antusevich of the AZOT 
REP trade union, Vladimir Ushkevich of the Grodno Union of 
Farmers, and Vitovt Rudnik of the Third Sector educational 
NGO.  Rudnik's organization trains journalists, but due to 
the lack of independent press, Rudnik is focusing more on 
internet journalism.  Antusevich spoke of the AZOT factory 
ideology officer's cooperation with the BKGB in inspecting 
the factory's REP office without prior notification or a 
warrant.  Ushkevich, who has not felt much government 
pressure, continues defending farmers' rights, particularly 
making sure government-allocated money actually reaches the 
farmers rather than remaining in the pockets of regional 
Ministry of Agriculture committee members.  Oskirko will 
soon finish school after taking a one-year hiatus when he 
was expelled for writing an opposition slogan on a wall. 
Eventually he was reinstated but he is often threatened 
with expulsion. 
 
Impromptu Meeting 
----------------- 
 
9. (C) Poloffs had not made arrangements to meet with the 
local authorities, but the ideology officer approached Pol 
Chief in a parking lot and asked why emboffs did not want 
to meet with the mayor, who was expecting the diplomats at 
his office.  In an immediate phone call to the Grodno 
administration building, the mayor seemed surprised that 
poloffs were in town and did not remember inviting emboffs 
to speak with him.  However, when Poloffs arrived, the 
mayor had free time to speak. 
 
10. (C) The Grodno mayor, Aleksandr Antonenko, and the 
chair of the regional Council of Deputies praised their 
good relationships with foreign diplomats, including the 
Ambassador, and took offense at poloffs unannounced visit. 
However, he claimed that emboffs should not feel obligated 
to stop by the administration on every visit.  Antonenko 
noted the small budget as Grodno's primary problem, but 
everything else was on the right path.  Grodno is second 
only to Minsk in home construction and the oblast's 
agriculture production provides enough food for the area 
and for export.  The large companies AZOT and a metallurgy 
plant are state-owned, but a foreign company could buy them 
easily without any problems.  Grodno's education system 
includes 46 schools and several large universities; the 
most notable, Yakab Kupala, has 20,000 students and a 
number of international students from Syria, Palestine, and 
Afghanistan.  The economy has significantly improved with 
wages rising to USD 250 Q 275 and unemployment is at 1.9 
percent.  The chair of the regional Council of Deputies 
boasted that America should be jealous of such figures. 
 
11. (C) Grodno has never had a problem with different 
nationalities or religious groups.  Commenting on the UBP 
situation, the mayor opined that the recent problems with 
the Poles have been an inter-organizational conflict that 
became political.  He claimed that the Grodno authorities 
did not want to get involved. 
 
Camera Time 
----------- 
 
12. (C) At the end of the meeting, the chair of the Council 
of Deputies asked Pol Chief if he would say a few words to 
the news crew waiting in the lobby.  Pol Chief explained 
that the trip was part of the Embassy's diplomatic work to 
see the regions and meet with both government and community 
leaders.  The cameraman asked why poloffs had changed their 
mind about meeting the mayor, to which Pol Chief noted free 
time in the schedule.  After exchanging handshakes with the 
mayor, poloffs returned to Minsk with the police following 
for an additional ten minutes past the city limits. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
13. (C) The Grodno activists face the same hardships as do 
activists across Belarus, but they showed great optimism 
for change.  Perhaps it is because a person they know well, 
Aleksandr Milinkevich, is now the single opposition 
candidate.  The local activists and independent reporters 
spoke highly of him and were optimistic that he could 
become a true contender against Lukashenko.  The mayor was 
very cordial and happy to meet with emboffs, but it was 
surprising that it was possible on short notice.  The 
subtle insinuations in his rehearsed language about the 
conflict with the UBP and the economy in Grodno indicated 
that he may see things differently than what he preached to 
Pol Chief.  On a side note, he admitted that he often read 
the independent and hard-to-find Narodnaya Volya.  However, 
it appears to be a new GOB policy to provide a police 
"escort" for emboffs and interfere with their meetings. 
 
KROL