US embassy cable - 05NAIROBI4552

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 004552 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, ASEC, PREL, KDEM, KE, Referendum 
SUBJECT: ECK EXPRESSES SOME CONCERNS AS THE REFERENDUM 
DRAWS NEAR 
 
REF: A. NAIROBI 3863 
 
     B. NAIROBI 4436 
 
1. (U) SUMMARY:  The Electoral Commission of Kenya, charged 
with 
conducting the November 21 national referendum on the 
proposed new constitution, is making ready for polling day, 
including adopting new technology which will permit the ECK 
to broadcast voting results near simultaneously.  While 
disappointed at low voter enthusiasm and lackluster 
participation of civil society organizations, the ECK is 
grateful for the offer of international missions to serve 
as observers on the referendum. END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) On October 27, poloff spoke with Electoral Commission 
of 
Kenya (ECK) Pubic Relations manager Mani Lemayian to 
discuss the preparations for the up-coming November 21 
national referendum on the proposed new constitution.  He 
explained that logistically everything is proceeding 
smoothly.  However, politically there is room for 
improvement, beginning with the limited control the ECK has 
been able to exert over the referendum campaigns and the 
use of government resources by either side.  Ref A. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Slow Progress on Constituency Agents 
------------------------------------ 
 
3. (U) As required, the 2 national-level referendum 
committees, 
which will coordinate the campaigns for both sides in the 
debate, have completed their registration with the ECK. 
Constituency-level committees are currently in the process 
of registration, but Lemayian indicated that this process 
was not moving forward as quickly as they had 
hoped.  The respective campaign secretariats are slow to 
provide the ECK with its constituency agents, those who 
will be observing the voting in polling stations across 
constituencies, which Lemayian attributed to a general lack 
of organization at the secretariats.  The registration of 
constituency agents is extremely important as they are the 
ones responsible to the ECK for any violations of the 
electoral code of conduct in their constituencies and are 
also the most likely to cry foul if some procedural 
irregularity prevents them from accessing polling stations 
on polling day. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
"Instant" Results May One Up the Media 
-------------------------------------- 
 
4. (U) According Lemayian, the ECK is currently deliberating 
a 
proposal which would allow polling results to be conveyed 
from the individual polling stations to the ECK via mobile 
phones, allowing the ECK to release "near simultaneous" 
provisional results to the nation.  This method would allow 
the ECK to preempt the media releasing unofficial results 
which may create conflict if various media houses reach 
different conclusions or are perceived to be biased towards 
one side in the referendum debate.  The ECK plans to 
concentrate media representatives and other interested 
observers in a specially created media center where the ECK 
would release the provisional results.  Lemayian said that 
the ECK is interested in adopting the communication 
protocol which would allow the early release of provisional 
results, however the amount of resources required to 
increase the technological capacity to achieve this may 
prove prohibitive. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Lackluster Enthusiasm for the Referendum 
---------------------------------------- 
 
5. (U) Lemayian lamented the thus-far lack of interest 
expressed 
by domestic organizations to serve as observers of the 
referendum.  He noted that during the 2002 elections, 
40,000 Kenyans served as observers.  To date the ECK has 
received very few inquiries (compared to expectations) from 
potential domestic observers.  Of those who have expressed 
interest, many are laboring under the mistaken belief that 
they will receive financial remuneration for their efforts. 
He accredited the lackluster interest of domestic 
organizations to both a lack of funding and a lack of 
strong civil society organizations engaged on the issue. 
(Note: In the 2002 elections, the international community 
provided funding to domestic organizations to observe the 
elections.  Regarding this referendum, international 
missions have been reluctant to support civil society 
organizations to serve as observes because many of these 
organizations have been very active in the referendum 
debate, calling into question their impartially. End Note.) 
He expressed his appreciation of the international 
community's interest in observing, but expressed some 
dismay at the limited size and breadth of its anticipated 
observation delegation.  He also noted the dearth of 
international media presence in Kenya and an absence of 
reporting on the referendum process. 
 
-------------- 
Stormy Weather 
-------------- 
 
6. (U) While Lemayian noted the low levels of voter 
enthusiasm 
(compared to the 2002 elections and as evidenced in the fewer 
applications for replacement voter registration cards) and 
his concern over the possibility of low voter turnout, his 
greatest 
concern surrounds the weather.  Voting materials and ballots 
need 
to be sent to each and every polling station throughout the 
country, all 19,134 of them.  Many of these poling stations 
are difficult to reach even in the best of times.  As 
November is traditionally a month for rain, heavy rainfall 
might significantly hamper access to some of the more 
remote locations, impeding delivery of the voting 
materials, including ballots, and return of the certified 
voting results.  Lemayian noted that some public and 
private air transport might be made available to reach 
otherwise inaccessible sites.  However these might not be 
sufficient, thus significantly delaying the release of the 
certified voting results and thereby prolonging the window 
for dangerous speculation. 
BELLAMY