US embassy cable - 05NAIROBI4551

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 004551 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, ASEC, PREL, KDEM, PINS, KE, Referendum 
SUBJECT: FIRST DEATHS MAR RUN-UP TO KENYA'S REFERENDUM 
 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Michael J. Fitzpatrick.  Reasons 1.4 
 (b,d) 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  Violence erupted October 29 during a 
pro-new constitution rally in Kisumu.  Hundreds of angry 
youth opposed to the proposed new constitution clashed with 
thousands of security personal, culminating in 40 serious 
injuries and four reported deaths.  The violence was the most 
deadly incident in referendum campaigns marked by escalating 
polarization and violence.  Both sides in the referendum 
debate are accusing each other of working to undermine 
democracy, alleging coup plats and intent to declare a state 
of emergency, with significant consequences for the 
successful conduct of the democratic exercise -- whatever the 
outcome of the referendum.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------- 
Going Bananas 
------------- 
 
2.  (U)  Violence erupted in Kisumu October 29 during a 
pro-new constitution ("Banana") rally lead by Information 
Minister Raphael Tuju.  Hundreds of angry youth opposed to 
the proposed new constitution clashed with an estimated 3,000 
security personal, culminating in 40 serious injuries and 
four reported deaths.  Kisumu, Kenya,s third-largest city, 
is the capital of Nyanza province, predominantly ethnic Luo 
in population, and home to an influential Asian business 
community. It is also home to Minister Raila Odinga -- the 
man double-crossed out of a Prime Minister-ship under the 
current government and the leader of the "No" ("Orange") 
campaign. 
 
3.  (C)  The October 29 violence did not come as a surprise 
to most observers.  During an October 21-22 visit to Kisumu 
and its environs, locals and community leaders described as 
anti-Banana the political environment in the area; members of 
the Kisumu business community expressed high levels of 
anxiety about the potential for violence associated with the 
constitutional referendum in the area.  Senior District 
Officer, Joseph K.W. Satia, told poloff that Nyanza province 
was 80-20 opposed to the proposed new constitution and that 
violence was possible.  He also stated that support in the 
area for Tuju (an ethnic Luo viewed by many fellow tribesmen 
as having "betrayed" the community with support for the draft 
constitution and his transparent efforts to dethrone Raila as 
top Luo leader) was low and that those who have expressed 
support for him have received rewards which Tuju has been 
busy doling out across the province to garner support for the 
Banana campaign and his newly formed People,s Progressive 
Party.  Many of our interlocutors confirmed this assessment, 
describing the political environment in the area as being 
hostile to the Banana campaign,s message as a result of the 
Orange campaign,s early aggressive campaigning in the area, 
lead by Raila Odinga.  When questioned about a planned rally 
to be lead by Tuju on October 22 which was unceremoniously 
cancelled by Tuju, Provincial Police Commissioner, Bakari 
Omari remarked that perhaps he was &too scared,8 reflecting 
the commonly held belief that the area would not welcome Tuju 
and his team of Banana campaigners. 
 
------------------------------- 
An Escalating Trail of Violence 
------------------------------- 
 
4. (U)  Against this unfavorable background, Tuju vowed to 
continue with the planned October 29th rally despite 
harbingers of the violence to come.  The Banana campaign 
encountered hostile crowds throughout Nyanza and Western 
province in the week leading up to the October 29th rally. 
On October 25, Tuju had to abort a planned pro-Banana meeting 
in Nyanza when his helicopter was prevented from landing at 
the meeting site by a bone fire lit by opponents to the draft 
constitution.  On October 26, Tuju was forced to flee from 
hostile youth near Kisumu who pelted him with stones and 
oranges, a scene which was repeated a at number of his public 
appearances in the area.  In Kakamega town, Western province, 
opponents to the proposed new constitution attacked 
pro-Banana Member of Parliament Bonny Khalwale and set his 
car ablaze on October 27. 
 
5. (U) Reaction to the October 29th violence has been 
critical of the government,s response, accusing the security 
forces of using excessive force.  Police reportedly fired 
live ammunition to disperse the hostile crowds and leaders of 
the Orange campaign have threatened to file a suit against 
the government at the International Court of Justice.  Tuju 
claimed that the unrest was organized by two former military 
officers.  Orange campaign leader Uhuru Kenyatta accused the 
government of intentional provocation, of instigating the 
violence so as to create an excuse to postpone the referendum 
planned for November 21.  Despite claims of police brutality, 
Police Commissioner Hussein Ali expressed his support of the 
police response and stated that future unrest would be met 
with equal force.  The Luo Council of Elders, influential in 
Nyanza province, denounced the violence and called for people 
to reject violence and peacefully allow Banana campaigners to 
have their say.  Orange leaders have condemned the violence 
on the part of the security forces, but have not been equally 
outspoken in calling for a halt to violence in the actions of 
their supporters.  Banana supporters have been quick to 
charge Orange campaigners of seeking to squelch democratic 
debate and to establish a (pro-Raila) "dictatorship". 
 
------------------------------- 
Rumors of Coups and Martial Law 
------------------------------- 
 
6. (U)  Meanwhile, leaders of the Orange team warned of an 
increased likelihood of military coups in the future should 
the proposed new constitution be adopted.  Cabinet ministers 
Ralia Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka claim that the difficulty to 
amend the new constitution may make it more likely that 
people find other means to redress perceived flaws in the 
constitution, stating that the adoption of the proposed 
constitution  will &push Kenyans into a corner where they 
have no alternative but to rise up against an undemocratic 
constitutional order.8  (NOTE:  The proposed new 
constitution will arguably be more difficult to amend than 
the current one.  The 1 million signatures required to merely 
propose an amendment is perceived by some of the smaller 
tribes as a way for the dominant Kikuyu group to perpetuate 
their hold on power, as the proposed new constitution is 
perceived to benefit Kikuyus over other groups. END NOTE.) 
Musyoka also threatened to stage a sit-in in Uhuru Park if 
the referendum vote is perceived to have been rigged in favor 
of a Yes outcome.  He likened the action to the popular coup 
of the &orange revolution8 in Ukraine last year. 
 
7. (U)  In response, the government has accused the Orange 
leaders of sowing anarchy and planning a coup d,etat to 
overthrow the government should the No,s lose the referendum 
vote. Repeated dark references have been made to Raila 
Odinga's "revolutionary" past, his university days in 
then-East Germany and his role in the 1982 coup attempt 
against Moi's one-party state. President Kibaki condemned the 
Ministers, remarks as &foolish and stupid8 and accused 
them of agitating people to overthrow the government.  The 
Orange team has denied any intention to plot a coup and 
subsequently accused the government of planning to declare 
martial law should the No,s win the referendum vote. 
 
8. (C)  COMMENT:  The violence which has dogged both 
campaigns is likely to continue to escalate as threats of 
coups and martial law are mixed into the debate.  Neither 
side has sufficiently condemned violence by its supporters. 
Should future unrest be met with renewed lethal force by 
security personal, the potential for what until now have been 
isolated scenes of violence to escalate to national-level 
issues could increase dramatically.  Statements such as 
Kalonzo,s threat to occupy a downtown park if displeased 
with the outcome of the voting underscore the importance of a 
referendum process which is perceived by all sides to be free 
and fair. 
BELLAMY