US embassy cable - 05BOGOTA10231

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 010231 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, VE, CO, Elections, ELN Peace Process, Venezuela 
SUBJECT: URIBE'S PARTY CHIEF SAYS PRESIDENT NEEDS SOLID 
MAJORITY IN CONGRESS TO ENACT STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC REFORMS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood. 
Reason: 1.4 (b,d) 
 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C) Juan Manuel Santos, President Uribe's hand-picked 
leader of the new Uribista political party ("Partido de la 
U"), told Polcouns October 28 it is imperative that Uribe win 
a solid working majority in March legislative elections. 
Only with an "ample and faithful" majority could Uribe pursue 
required pension and tax reforms, he said.  Santos was 
scathing in his criticisms of Senator German Vargas Lleras, 
whom he characterized as jealous of Santos and "hated" in the 
Casa de Narino.  Santos acknowledged concerns about undue 
paramilitary influence in electoral campaigns and said he was 
working on a proposal that all parties should adopt to ensure 
that paramilitaries cannot take office.  Santos predicted 
that former Bogota mayor Enrique Penalosa would run for mayor 
again.  He predicted that Uribe would win on the first ballot 
in May's presidential contest, and that a Constitutional 
Court ruling on the Electoral Guarantees law (expected 
November 11) should not be an impediment to Uribe's 
reelection campaign.  He said the GOC-ELN peace process could 
be boosted by the Constitutional Court's reelection decision, 
and urged the U.S. to "embarrass and weaken" Chavez by 
exposing his attacks on democracy and corruption in 
Venezuela.  End summary. 
 
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"Ample and Faithful" Majority Required 
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2.  (C) Santos said his principal task as leader of the 
"Partido de la U" is to ensure an "ample and faithful" 
majority for Uribe in March legislative elections.  Uribe 
needs such a majority to pass required structural economic 
reforms, especially to address vulnerabilities in the pension 
and tax systems.  Santos explained that Colombia's economic 
performance in recent years has been positive but the country 
remains vulnerable to a worldwide economic downturn or even 
to an increase in interest rates in the U.S. or Europe that 
could lead to capital leaving Colombia.  In such a case 
Colombia's tax revenues might not cover pension and debt 
liabilities.  Uribe knows he will need to expend political 
capital on tough reforms, which in turn requires high public 
opinion ratings and a strong congressional majority. 
 
3.  (C) Santos said his party already has 24 Senators and 
should have up to 28 within two weeks (out of 102).  The 
"Partido de la U" is targeting Senators and Senatorial 
candidates from various sources, including from Senator 
Vargas Lleras' Cambio Radical party.  Santos said former 
Bogota mayor Enrique Penalosa has given his supporters the 
green light to cooperate with the "Partido de la U," 
including to the extent of running for office under the 
party's colors.  Popular Senator Jairo Clopatofsky is 
expected to join the "Partido de la U" in the next few days. 
 
 
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Santos Tarnishes Vargas Lleras 
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4.  (C) Senator Vargas Lleras is the head of the growing 
pro-Uribe Cambio radical movement, but is trying to position 
his group as an independent actor and potential pivot power 
in the next Congress.  Santos said Vargas Lleras is "hated" 
in the Casa de Narino because he is a "hypocrite" and a 
manipulator.  Vargas Lleras's standing went down further when 
he criticized Uribe for providing inadequate security 
measures in the days following the recent car bomb attack. 
According to Santos, the Senator is "rude" and jealous of 
Santos's role as principal vote-getter for Uribe.  Santos 
claimed that his relationship with Vargas Lleras was cordial 
until Uribe named Santos to lead the "Partido de la U"; after 
that, Santos said, Vargas Lleras turned hostile ("even his 
girlfriend won't talk to me now"). 
 
5.  (C) Santos asserted that Vargas Lleras's jealousy towards 
him motivated the most recent spat, which occurred when 
Santos called on Vargas Lleras to unite his pro-Uribe forces 
in Cambio Radical with the "Partido de la U."  Such a united 
effort could, Santos argued, increase the pro-Uribe Senator 
count by between 4 and 6 Senators because of the way votes 
are counted.  Instead of discussing the matter, Santos said 
Vargas Lleras accused Santos of being disrespectful and 
aggressive.  (A radio interview with the two men a few days 
after the latest disagreement was sharply hostile.)  Santos 
agreed that the hostility could make it more difficult for 
Uribe to work with Vargas Lleras during a second term. 
 
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Uribe on First Round; Penalosa for Mayor 
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6.  (C) Santos predicted that Uribe would win the presidency 
on the first ballot with a vote total in the mid-50 percent 
range.  The opposition's best chance of running a close race 
would be to unite on the first ballot, but Santos said he 
thought that unlikely.  The Liberals and the Polo Democratico 
would unite on the second ballot if one took place, but by 
then it would be too late, he said.  In Santos's view, a 
Constitutional Court ruling on the Electoral Guarantees law 
(expected November 11) would have minimal impact on Uribe's 
reelection campaign.  Santos also suggested that Penalosa 
would run for mayor of Bogota. 
 
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Paramilitary Concern, Santos Proposal 
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7.  (C) Santos expressed concern with paramilitary influence 
in the electoral campaigns in certain regions and said he had 
a proposal to prevent paramilitaries from taking office. 
Santos will propose that all parties include in their 
constitutions a commitment to expel from their ranks any 
candidate elected as a result of paramilitary coercion.  In 
this way, he said, Colombia would be able to break any link 
between paramilitary pressure and electoral results. 
 
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ELN Peace Process 
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8.  (C) Santos said the GOC-ELN peace process could get a 
boost from the Constitutional Court's reelection decision, as 
the ELN now knew it had to deal with Uribe for the next 5 
years.  He noted that the ELN was divided between hardliners 
who resisted peace talks and those who were more favorably 
inclined; the latter group could now be strengthened, he 
suggested.  In any event, Santos said, Uribe is committed to 
pursuing any reasonable peace option with the ELN. 
 
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Venezuela 
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9.  (C) In response to a question, Santos said he fears that 
Chavez is getting stronger and urged the U.S. to "embarrass 
and weaken" Chavez by focusing on the "destruction of 
democracy" in Venezuela and on the Chavez regime's corruption 
scandals. 
 
 
WOOD