US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN1932

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 001932 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, AM 
SUBJECT: ADOLESCENT GROWING PAINS:  ARMENIA'S PARLIAMENT 
TURNS FIFTEEN 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) Armenia's National Assembly marked its fifteenth 
anniversary November 1 with an international symposium that 
included legislators from around the globe and familiar 
political posturing by political figures from around the 
country.  National Assembly Speaker Artur Baghdasaryan used 
the conference as a chance to take credit for the contacts he 
has forged through an aggressive travel program involving 
legislators in Europe and Asia.  As expected, formal remarks 
emphasized the importance of the November 27 constitutional 
referendum as a guarantor of the National Assembly's 
political relevance.  Unexpected, however, was the deflated 
tone of Deputy Speaker Tigran Torosyan, who has been the GOAM 
official most closely involved in the constitutional 
amendments process.  Torosyan's prediction for the November 
27 balloting was less rosy than his colleagues' and he did 
not hide his dissatisfaction with the GOAM's campaign in 
support of the amendments.  USAID-Armenia Director Robin 
Phillips discussed the link between donors' development 
efforts and strengthening democracy in Armenia.  The 
conference itself was symbolic of some of the National 
Assembly's greatest challenges:  spotty attendance, unruly 
rhetoric and the opposition's self-absorbed participation 
caught the attention of many of the foreign guests as 
familiar problems in the National Assembly hall.  End Summary. 
 
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BAGHDSASARYAN REVELS IN HIS INTERNATIONAL GUEST-LIST 
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2. (C) Armenia's National Assembly marked its fifteenth 
anniversary November 1 with an international symposium that 
included legislators from around the globe and familiar 
political posturing by political figures from around the 
country.  The National Assembly Speaker used the conference 
as a chance to take credit for the contacts he has forged 
through an aggressive travel program involving legislators in 
Europe and Asia.  Deputy Speakers of the Russian State Duma, 
Greek, Norwegian, Kazakh and Georgian Parliaments were 
honorary co-chairs of the event.  Throughout the opening two 
sessions, Baghdasaryan met with each of the visiting 
delegations (that included legislators from Chile, Belgium, 
France, Italy, Germany, Romania, Lebanon, Latvia, Russia, 
Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and China).  According to 
Baghdasaryan's Chief of Staff, these meetings were a chance 
for Baghdasaryan to re-visit the memoranda of understanding 
he has signed with the legislatures of sixteen countries to 
date and press hard for a formal document with the remaining 
countries.  Comment:  Baghdasaryan had been criticized early 
on in his tenure for spending too much energy on courting 
ties with his international counterparts.  While it is still 
unclear how much -- if any -- substance underpins the 
formalities of these memoranda of understanding, the cadre of 
parliamentarians who accepted his invitation to this 
conference indicates that he's been successful in deepening 
his contacts.  Former National Assembly Speaker and Prime 
Minister (and political rival) Khosrov Harutyunyan even 
pointed to the guest list as Baghdasaryan's contribution and 
publicly congratulated him.  End Comment. 
 
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REFERENDUM STEALS THE SHOW 
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3. (C) Most speakers' formal remarks emphasized the 
importance of the November 27 constitutional referendum as a 
guarantor of the National Assembly's political relevance.  As 
one of the most widely-publicized events at the National 
Assembly in recent months, the meeting gave politicians the 
chance to speak their minds about the package of 
constitutional amendments.  Pro-government speakers included 
the chairs of the National Assembly's standing committees who 
echoed Baghdasaryan's enthusiastic endorsements of the 
amendments as the "only way to bring Parliament to the 
People" and provide checks on the Executive's power.  MP 
Hranush Hakobian delivered a long speech outlining how the 
amendments would curb the President's ability to "legislate 
without a mandate."  Opposition parliamentarians, of whom 
there were only a handful by the second hour of the 
conference, spoke their minds to journalists during meeting 
breaks.  Opposition party members made it clear that the 
opposition still has not decided on a single strategy for the 
November 27 vote.  Some parties are calling for voters to 
stay away from the polls entirely, while others are 
encouraging voters to vote against the package.  Comment:  We 
expect that parties will opt increasingly for the boycott as 
more politically advantageous.  "No" or abstaining votes 
could reveal just how weak opposition support is -- in 
contrast to their claims of overwhelming support in Armenia's 
regions.  End Comment. 
 
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TOROSYAN:  LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT NOV 27? 
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4. (C) The most notable part of the conference was the 
deflated tone of Deputy Speaker Tigran Torosyan's speech. 
Torosyan said the National Assembly had to overcome the 
relatively weak understanding of party politics in Armenia. 
He slammed the large number of "artificial, populist parties" 
in Armenia that weakened the National Assembly's credibility 
and performance.  He called on the opposition to come to 
grips with the fact that it may not always be out of power 
and to embrace the role of a productive opposition and accept 
its role in parliament.  Torosyan, the member of the GOAM who 
has been most closely involved in the constitutional 
amendments process, was less optimistic about the viability 
of the amendments package than he has been in the past. 
Torosyan, unlike his colleagues from the other coalition 
parties, refused to call for victory during the November 27 
election.  He hinted that a defeat for the constitutional 
amendments would be a great shame for Armenia, but stopped 
short of predicting a win for Armenian democracy in the form 
of a "yes" vote. 
 
5. (C) Torosyan commented to us in private that he was 
unhappy with the way the GOAM's campaign in support of the 
amendments was taking shape.  He told us he had hoped for an 
informational program about the substance of the proposed 
changes rather than a "propaganda campaign telling people how 
to vote."  He hinted, however, that there was a dialogue 
underway to tweak the campaign (including the printing and 
nationwide distribution of almost one million copies of the 
constitution and amendments).  He did not mask his 
irritation, however, at the opposition's tactics leading up 
to November 27.  He accused the opposition of spreading 
misinformation about the substance of the amendments in an 
effort to dissuade less-informed citizens from going to the 
polls.  He pointed to a recent poll conducted by a local news 
agency claiming that a considerable percentage of Armenians 
still had not decided how they would vote on November 27. 
Torosyan clearly views this group as an opportunity for the 
opposition, as well as the GOAM, to wield influence. 
Comment:  Torosyan is at times prone to let his mood affect 
his work.  His less-than-ebouillent performance on November 2 
may be a temporary slump.  He is in a good position to 
predict the viability of the referendum package, however.  We 
will be closely following his remarks during the next few 
weeks.  End Comment. 
 
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DONOR EFFORTS TO STRENGTHEN THE LEGISLATURE 
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6. (C) Representatives from international donor organizations 
resident in Yerevan showed up in large numbers for the event. 
 USAID-Armenia Director Robin Phillips discussed the link 
between donors' development efforts and strengthening 
democracy in Armenia.  Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF 
- "Dashnaksutyun") leader and Foreign Relations Standing 
Committee Chair Armen Rustamyan was enthusiastic during his 
remarks about the positive impact of inter-parliamentary 
cooperation facilitated by international organizations in 
Armenia.  (Note:  USAID's Armenia Legislative Strengthening 
Program, together with smaller programs sponsored by the 
European Commission, continues to work with the National 
Assembly to develop the National Assembly's institutional 
capacity and de-mystify the legislative process for Armenians 
nationwide.  The program is among the most successful 
initiatives sponsored by Freedom Support Act funds at Post. 
End Note.) 
 
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COMMENT:  LOTS OF ROOM FOR GROWTH 
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7. (C) Armenia's National Assembly has come a long way and 
has had to overcome the usual set of challenges faced by a 
new democracy -- as well as the jarring terrorist act of 
October 1999 when gunmen opened fire in Parliament.  The 
conference itself, however upbeat, was symbolic of some of 
the National Assembly's greatest challenges:  spotty 
attendance, unruly rhetoric and the opposition's 
self-absorbed participation caught the attention of many of 
the foreign guests in the National Assembly hall.  The 
European Union's Marie-Anne Isler-Beguin referenced this 
reality and made extremely clear the EU's opinion that 
Armenia's legislature -- and democracy in general in the 
country -- still had a long way yet to go in Armenia.  She 
told participants not to expect an invitation to join the EU 
unless the country made peace with its neighbors and 
participated as a full-faith member in the EU's neighborhood 
initiatives.  Unfortunately, most of the Armenian MPs had 
left the room or were on their cell phones during her speech. 
EVANS