US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN1931

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001931 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS TO AID/EE/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, EAID, PINR, AM 
SUBJECT: IN LETTER TO SECRETARY RICE, PRESIDENT KOCHARIAN 
COMPLAINS ABOUT NDI 
 
REF: 04 YEREVAN 830 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John Evans, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (S) SUMMARY:  Armenian President Kocharian summoned the 
Ambassador to complain, as he has done before, about 
activities of the National Democratic Institute, in 
particular those of its current director, who is scheduled to 
depart next week.  This time he put his complaint into a 
letter to Secretary Rice, saying that he did not want or 
expect any  response.  We trace the history of this issue, 
speculate as to the probable purpose and timing of the 
letter, and suggest a way forward that should protect U.S. 
programs and the overall U.S. interest here.  END SUMMARY 
 
2. (S) The morning after the Ambassador's press conference 
announcing the package of measures designed to help Armenia 
achieve free and fair elections in 2007 and 2008, the 
President's office asked the Ambassador to meet with him 
privately on the next working day, October 31.  At the 
meeting, which was attended also by Foreign Minister 
Oskanian, the President recapitulated complaints he has made 
previously (most recently during A/S Dan Fried's visit) about 
the current director of the National Democratic Institute in 
Yerevan, Chad Rogers, a Canadian citizen.  The main burden of 
Kocharian's lengthy presentation was that Rogers was 
undermining the official U.S. policy of supporting the 
Constitutional amendments by advising Opposition politicians 
as to how they could most effectively counter the 
government's campaign to have those amendments adopted in the 
November 27 referendum.  The text of the President's letter 
to the Secretary is at Para. 5. 
 
3. (S) Background of the NDI Issue in Armenia.  The Kocharian 
administration has periodically voiced complaints about the 
activities of NDI, which is partially funded by USAID, for 
several years running.  Within the memory of officers now at 
post, Kocharian convoked the Charge on this issue in early 
2004 and subsequently expressed misgivings during the visit 
of then-Deputy Secretary Armitage in April 2004 (reftel). 
Foreign Minister Oskanian complained publicly about NDI in a 
talk at CSIS in June 2004.  For a time the issue lay dormant, 
except for being the subject of a study (the ARD study) 
commissioned by AID on the effectiveness of assistance to 
political parties that concluded that this assistance had not 
been particularly effective.  It surfaced again, however, at 
the end of August, when Kocharian sent word through Oskanian 
that the U.S. policy of backing the Constitutional amendments 
was being undermined by Rogers's activities.  At that time, 
the Ambassador invited Rogers to come in for a friendly chat 
about NDI's activities; he did not "lay down the law," but 
cautioned Rogers to be more careful in pursuing what he 
understood to be legitimate political-party training 
activities that were evenly distributed across the political 
spectrum.  There have been rumors that Rogers, who is 
socially connected with many expatriates here in Yerevan, is 
-- or at least was at one time -- quite taken with the idea 
of bringing about a "pomegranate revolution" in Armenia along 
the lines of the "colored revolutions" in Georgia and 
Ukraine.  President Kocharian has access to those rumors and 
much more, as the Armenian security apparatus has kept Rogers 
under close surveillance, judging from several remarks 
Kocharian has made to the Ambassador and USAID Director 
Phillips. 
 
4. (S) Asked if there was anything "illegal" that Rogers had 
done, Kocharian demurred and said he preferred to say that 
his actions were "not useful," had a conspiratorial character 
involving late-night "secret" assignations, and could 
potentially, in his view, undermine the security of the 
state.  The Ambassador made it clear once again that the U.S. 
position was not to foment revolution in the streets, but 
rather to support reform and evolutionary progress toward 
democracy; that was what the package of measures just 
announced (and previewed with Kocharian and other officials 
in September) was intended to do.  President Kocharian was 
already aware that Mr. Rogers was scheduled to depart Armenia 
for a new assignment (in Kosovo) o/a November 7. Kocharian 
did not say he wanted NDI as an institution to quit Armenia. 
He also made clear that he had no complaint either about the 
package of proposed measures or about the U.S. Mission or 
U.S. policy as a whole. 
 
5. (S) Begin text (original in English) of President 
Kocharian's letter to Secretary Rice: 
 
October 26, 2005, Yerevan 
 
Ms. Condoleezza Rice 
Secretary of State 
 
SIPDIS 
United States of America 
 
Dear Madam Secretary, 
 
Thank you for your call of August 25.  I very much appreciate 
your willingness to support the meetings between the 
Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan and to contribute 
towards the just resolution of the Nagorno Karabagh conflict. 
 I also noted the great importance you attach to the 
Constitutional Reform in Armenia.  You mentioned that the 
reform is a step forward in furthering democracy, rule of law 
and human rights.  The amendments have now been adopted by 
the National Assembly and the referendum is scheduled for 
November 27. 
 
The successful drafting of the amendments would have been 
impossible without solid support by the Council of Europe, 
the OSCE, the European Union and, of course, the United 
States of America.  Your Embassy in Yerevan has also been 
very supportive and committed to the implementation of the 
Constitutional amendments, as well as to the reforms in 
Armenia in general.  It is therefore a great irony that at 
least some of US assistance is being used contrary to the 
well-established policy of your Government of supporting the 
amendments to the Constitution. 
 
Particularly, Yerevan office of the National Democratic 
Institute, at least partially funded by USAID, continues its 
misbalanced support for those political parties in Armenia 
which spare no effort to fail the constitutional reform 
(sic).  Moreover, it provokes those groups to step up their 
actions aimed against the referendum.  All of the leading 
recipients of NDI training and support in Armenia are among 
the staunchest opponents of the Constitutional reform. 
 
While we fully realize that NDI is a non-governmental 
institution, we would appreciate assuring a better oversight 
over the application of public funds granted by the United 
States for advancement of democratic values in Armenia. 
 
Cordially, 
   /s/ 
Robert Kocharyan 
End text. 
 
6. (S) COMMENT:  Post sees a connection between President 
Kocharian's desire to register his dissatisfaction with the 
activities of NDI at this time and the failure of the 
November 27 referendum on constitutional amendments that he 
quite reasonably must fear.  If he were simply annoyed by the 
activities of Rogers, who is leaving next week, there would 
be no reason to complain about him officially at this late 
date.  Probably the reason Kocharian wanted to bring the 
matter to the attention of the Secretary at this time was to 
establish ahead of time a reasonable explanation for the 
possible failure of the amendments package at the November 27 
poll.  Kocharian may want to set NDI up for blame, and may 
plan to charge his opponents with having accepted foreign 
advice and assistance.  It could also be that, assuming the 
referendum fails, he may wish either to criticize or to gain 
leverage on our enhanced program of democracy-building 
assistance.  Kocharian is well aware that further slippage on 
the MCC "ruling justly" indicators could cost Armenia the 
Millennium Challenge compact currently being negotiated. 
Kocharian has previously said that, even if the referendum 
goes off with zero falsification of results, the opposition 
will cry foul and attempt to bring demonstrators into the 
streets. This is, in fact, what some of the more extreme 
opposition politicians are planning. END COMMENT 
 
7. (S) RECOMMENDATION:  Given the real prospect that Armenia 
could make a major stride toward genuine democracy at the 
time of the 2007 (legislative) and 2008 (presidential) 
elections, now is not the time for NDI (or any of our 
democracy programs) to wrap up their  operations here.  In 
fact, it was the prospect of the next general elections that 
persuaded Mission management not to act on the implicit 
recommendation of the ARD study and phase out technical 
assistance to political parties here.  What is needed at this 
point is 1) a new director of NDI who can project an image 
that is more in line with the evolution-not-revolution 
position adopted by the U.S. Government with regard to 
Armenia; 2) better coordination of NDI and other 
U.S.-sponsored efforts on the ground; and 3) the addition of 
an IRI representative to give our push for free and fair 
elections a bipartisan look. 
 
8. (S) As for President Kocharian's letter to the Secretary, 
the original of which will be pouched to EUR/CACEN, post 
recommends that there be no written response. 
EVANS