US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK6853

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 006853 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/MLS 
PACOM FOR FPA (HUSO) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PTER, TH, Southern Thailand 
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: GOVERNMENT PRESSURED TO TAKE 
ACTION FOLLOWING TRAIN BOMBING/RAIDS 
 
REF: BANGKOK 6764 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton. Reason 1.4 (d) 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  On October 27 insurgents bombed a 
rail-line in Narathiwat province, derailing four cars on a 
passenger train.  The bombing followed the dramatic series of 
weapons raids across far southern Thailand on October 26. 
According to some local observers the latest attacks 
demonstrate the ineffectiveness of Thai security forces in 
the South as well as growing boldness and sophistication from 
the insurgents.  In response to the attacks Prime Minister 
Thaksin instructed security forces to go after the insurgents 
more forcefully, increasing speculation that the government 
is moving towards a harsher crackdown.  END SUMMARY 
 
2.  (SBU)  On October 27 insurgents bombed a rail-line in the 
Sungai Padi district of Narathiwat province, causing four 
cars from the Nakohn Sri Thammarat to Sungai Kolok train to 
derail, and leaving one passenger hurt.  Rail-lines in the 
far South -- and security forces protecting them -- have been 
attacked before, including a March 27, 2005 bombing and 
shooting attack on a rail-car carrying security forces in 
Narathiwat.  However, this is the first instance in recent 
memory of a civilian commuter train being directly attacked. 
This latest bombing followed the series of more than 60 raids 
conducted by insurgents on October 26 which resulted in the 
theft of some 90 weapons from village defense volunteers 
(reftel).  Following the raids and bombing Prime Minister 
Thaksin has responded forcefully, vowing that security forces 
would use aggressive new tactics to go after the militants. 
 
3.  (C)  Narathiwat Governor Pracha Therat told emboffs that 
he believes the train bombing and coordinated raids were 
messages from the insurgents that they have the potential to 
attack at will. (NOTE: Pracha also said that all available 
information indicates that the attackers came from the local 
community. END NOTE) 
 
4.  (C)  Separately, Dr. Panitan Wattanayagorn, a security 
expert from Chulalongkorn University, told emboffs that he 
believed these latest attacks reflected "the ineffectiveness 
of the command structure of security agencies, inefficient 
intelligence management, and lack of good coordination among 
military and police forces."  Both Panitan and Governor 
Pracha agreed that Thai security forces had advance warning 
of the planned raids on October 26 but were unable to disrupt 
them.  Panitan also opined that the RTG was trying to 
downplay the seriousness of the October 27 train bombing. 
Panitan said that he had information that the militants had 
used more than 60 kilograms of potassium nitrate in the 
bombing, which he believes demonstrates growing 
sophistication in the bomb-making capabilities of the 
militants. 
 
5.  (C)  COMMENT: These most recent attacks, while causing 
few casualties, demonstrate the growing boldness of the 
insurgents and illustrate once again the lack of progress by 
the RTG over the past two years to disrupt their activities. 
Thaksin's vow of a more "proactive" response against the 
instigators is in line with the tone that he and other senior 
Thai officials have been using in recent weeks which has lead 
to widespread local speculation that a harsh crackdown by the 
government is in the works.  Although the government forces 
on the ground have shown restraint in response to recent 
attacks, the insurgents' successes will certainly be a 
provocation.  The government is under increasing pressure to 
show it can stop -- or, at least, punish, the insurgents. END 
COMMENT 
BOYCE