US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1883

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001883 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PTER, CE, Elections 
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION PERSPECTIVES FROM KURUNEGALA, 
POLONNARUWA, AND TRINCOMALEE DISTRICTS 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead.  Reason: 1.4(b, d). 
 
 1.  (U)  Summary.  Poloff and Pol FSN met on October 25-27 
with community members in Kurunegala district in North 
Western province, Polonnaruwa district in North Central 
province, and Trincomalee district in Eastern province to 
discuss the political climate in the weeks before the 
November 17 presidential election. Urban professionals, 
Tamils, and Muslims overwhelmingly expressed support for 
United National Party candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe, whom 
they believe will improve the economy, reinvigorate the peace 
process, and expedite tsunami reconstruction.  Rural 
agriculturists, on the other hand, largely seem to support 
Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) candidate and current Prime 
Minister Mahinda Rajapakse.  End Summary. 
 
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Kurunegala:  Professionals Fearful That Voters Will Choose 
Style Over Substance 
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2.  (U)  Poloff and pol FSN traveled to Kurunegala district 
on October 25 to discuss the November 17 presidential 
campaign with local residents.  Kurunegala town, 
approximately 93km northeast of Colombo, is majority pro-UNP. 
 There is a 50/50 split in the more rural areas of the 
district.  Undecided voters are worried most about jobs and 
opportunities for the youth.  Other issues in Kurunegala are 
access to health care and clean water, environmental 
protection, attention to poverty and ethnic divides, and a 
solution to political corruption and cronyism. 
 
 
3.  (U)  A group of professionals from Kurunegala--including 
a physician, an attorney, and an engineer--expressed concern 
that voters would reject Wickremesinghe's forward-leaning 
outlook for Sri Lanka in favor of Rajapakse's "pretty smile" 
and the grassroots outreach of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna 
(JVP), the chauvinist Sinhalese party allied with the SLFP. 
One interlocutor described a speech on economics the Prime 
Minister read to a gathering of businessmen in Kurunegala. 
Rajapakse stumbled over the words, saying that he did not 
know the subject and that the people must teach him.  The 
interlocutor said that Rajapakse's lack of basic economic 
knowledge was a dangerous combination with the country's 
grassroots population, the poor but largely self-sufficient 
farmers who are economically uneducated, because fewer people 
would question potentially destructive policies.  Others in 
the group said that the grassroots are the kingmakers of the 
country, and they have not experienced the increase in the 
cost of living the way the lower-middle class city dwellers 
have.  The professionals said that the farmers, who care more 
about the productivity of their land than about the wider 
economy, view urban-bred Wickremesinghe as never having known 
the hardships they have faced.  The Kurunegala interlocutors 
complained that the UNP is not communicating to the villagers 
Wickremesinghe's plan for farmers' benefits, nor are party 
members addressing trade unions in the area.  The 
professionals praised Wickremesinghe's plan to increase 
foreign investment and international trade but compared him 
to medicine, good for the body yet difficult to swallow, 
observing that he lacks the charm to match his opponent's 
propaganda and win over SLFP and JVP diehards. 
 
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Polonnaruwa:  The JVP is Bad for the Economy 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (U)  In a meeting on October 25, members of the 
Polonnaruwa Chamber of Commerce in Hingurakgoda town, 
approximately 170km northeast of Colombo, told poloff that 
the future of Sri Lanka depends on a government that does not 
include the JVP.  District businessmen said that Rajapakse is 
harmless, and could even understand the needs of the 
populace, but predicted he would be no more than a puppet of 
the JVP if he were to come to power.  Asserting that the JVP 
has a history of opposing policies attempted by incumbent 
President Kumaratunga and is plagued by short-term thinking, 
the Polonnaruwa businessmen opined that the JVP would run the 
government behind the scenes by trial and error--for example, 
implementing protectionist tariffs to see the result--while 
the economy collapses.  In addition to not having experience 
with running a government, the JVP appears to be set on war 
with the Liberation Tiger of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), the district 
businessmen said, adding that a government-provoked war would 
cause the international community to shun Sri Lanka and halt 
the trade of foreign commodities and raw materials. 
Wickremesinghe, on the other hand, would focus on long-term 
foreign investments and trade agreements that would help 
young businesses, they suggested. The businessmen expressed 
concern that because Polonnaruwa is largely agricultural, 
votes are likely to be influenced by the largesse the SLFP 
has provided to that sector, without considering 
Wickremesinghe's promise to give all farmers permanent deeds 
to their land and provide more land to the younger 
generation. 
 
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Trincomalee:  Voters Disconnected but Highly Opinionated 
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5.  (U)  Election fever in Trincomalee town, on Sri Lanka's 
northeastern coast, appeared relatively restrained on October 
26-27.  Poloff and pol FSN observed that a rally for 
Rajapakse, who visited Trincomalee on October 26, did not 
attract a large crowd.  Many of the attendees appeared to be 
JVP supporters bused in from other areas.  One interlocutor 
explained that few townspeople rally around the JVP.  Another 
interlocutor observed that there is no "get out the vote" 
activity for any party, saying that people prefer to spend 
money on survival rather than on campaigning.  The LTTE 
presence is not as obvious as in polls past, local residents 
reported; the LTTE closed its political field office in 
Trincomalee and has announced that it will not interfere with 
the movement of voters.  Military and police checkpoints have 
increased exponentially since the election date was 
announced, many near schools, markets, and private homes. 
After dark, the streets are deserted in a town that used to 
have a vibrant nightlife. 
 
6.  (U)  In contrast to Kurunegala and Polonnaruwa, voters in 
Trincomalee are divided along ethnic rather than class lines. 
 The Tamil, Muslim, and Sinhalese communities each make up a 
third of Trincomalee's population, and this ethnic mix, 
combined with an intense security presence, tangential LTTE 
influence, and a focus on tsunami reconstruction, serve to 
make the district a hotbed of diverse political opinions. 
Yet community members and interlocutors from various NGOs and 
international agencies claim that people in Trincomalee are 
uninterested in the presidential election.  Tamil voters in 
Trincomalee feel disconnected from national politics, 
complaining that Colombo has shown little interest in 
advancing the peace process or making available tsunami 
reconstruction aid, the two most important issues in the 
district.  Most told us that neither Wickremesinghe nor 
Rajapakse offers their community much hope for a long-term 
resolution to the conflict.  Some Tamils indicated grudging 
support for Wickremesinghe for having been instrumental in 
the Cease-fire Agreement, but many are unlikely to go to the 
polls unless the LTTE or its parliamentary supporter, the 
Tamil National Alliance, instruct them to do so. 
 
7.  (U)  Muslims enjoy greater political participation but 
are not a monolithic voting bloc.  Our interlocutors expect 
more Muslims to vote for Wickremesinghe than for Rajapakse, 
especially since the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress leader has 
endorsed the UNP candidate.  Muslim residents told us that 
they view Rajapakse as more sympathetic to the interests of 
the Sinhalese majority.  One NGO representative noted that 
voters in Trincomalee are more interested in parliamentary 
elections, which would provide the opportunity for people to 
select several new lawmakers as their voice in Colombo. 
 
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Comment 
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8.  (C)  Poloff's brief discussions with voters in these 
districts seem to confirm what we already suspected: that 
business people and members of ethnic minorities are more 
likely to favor the UNP candidate's stance on economic policy 
and the peace process than his SLFP opponent.  That said, 
even Wickremesinghe's supporters expressed substantial doubt 
that their candidate can effectively communicate his vision 
to the population at large.  (One UNP booster in Colombo has 
told us that his candidate is being advised "not to talk so 
much" while out on the stump.)  The fact that educated 
professionals, businessmen, and aid workers overwhelmingly 
prefer Wickremesinghe is not surprising, but whether this 
segment of society has the numbers to outweigh farmers, 
Sinhalese chauvinists, and other Rajapakse supporters remains 
to be seen. 
LUNSTEAD