US embassy cable - 05ADANA199

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADANA 000199 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ECON, SY, IZ, ADANA 
SUBJECT: DIYARBAKIR POLL SHOWS KURDISH ISSUE TURKEY'S BIGGEST 
PROBLEM 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  A recent Dicle University poll found that the 
Diyarbakir's residents had mixed feelings about their 
government's lack of follow-up after PM Erdogan's August 12 
speech promising the use of democratic methods to solve the 
"Kurdish issue." The poll confirmed that almost 90 percent of 
residents agreed with the PM that there is a "Kurdish issue," 
and that a majority of residents saw it as Turkey's largest 
issue.  Poll respondents indicated no single solution to the 
problem, but nearly one-third of respondents agreed that it 
would be very important to allow free use of the Kurdish 
language and unfettered expression of the Kurdish identity.  In 
spite of a high degree of ambivalence among respondents about 
party affiliation, most still indicated  support for DEHAP (in 
the process of transitioning to the Democratic Society Movement) 
and less than one-fourth  support  the AK party, although almost 
half the respondents indicated that they would give their 
support to the AK Party if it solved the Kurdish issue.  End 
Summary. 
 
Diyarbakir Poll: Kurdish Issue Biggest Problem for Turkey 
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2. (SBU) There has been no  follow-up by the GOT to Prime 
Minister Tayyip Erdogan's August 12 speech in Diyarbakir wherein 
he mentioned the existence of a "Kurdish issue," and promised to 
use democratic methods to solve it.  AMCON Adana conoffs called 
on Dicle University associate professor Mazhar Bagli on October 
25 to discuss a recent poll attributed to him in earlier October 
press reporting.  His poll, conducted in Diyarbakir, provides a 
snapshot view on local reaction to Erdogan's speech .  According 
to an article by Bagli, "the study aimed to measure reactions to 
PM Erdogan's speech about the Kurdish issue and to his policies 
and to find out how the Kurdish issue is defined and what kind 
of solutions are proposed."  The study was conducted on 876 
respondents, 569 males and 307 females, in the city of 
Diyarbakir in August 2005.  Pollsters approached at random 
people of different age groups, income levels, educational 
background, genders and professions.  Pollsters asked 23 
questions, some open-ended. 
 
3. (SBU) Results of the poll showed that 89.4 percent agreed 
there is a "Kurdish problem" in Turkey, while 59.4 percent 
perceived the Kurdish issue as Turkey's primary problem; 20.9 
percent said Turkey's primary problem was democratization, and 
13.7 percent said it was the economy.  When asked in an 
open-ended question how to define the Kurdish issue, 43 percent 
of respondents considered it an ethnic issue, 25.7 percent saw 
it as a political issue, while 12.4 percent called it an issue 
of democracy.  The study also showed that 52.5 percent of 
respondents said there was no solution to the Kurdish problem 
through Erdogan's approach, while 30.7 percent said there was 
such a solution; 16.4 percent said they had no idea regarding 
the question, and 0.3 percent gave no answer.  When asked how 
they interpreted Erdogan's meeting with the intelligentsia, 30.1 
percent of respondents replied that it was an effort to deceive 
the public and an equal number, 30.1 percent, replied that it 
was meaningless if nothing concrete followed.  Approximately 23 
percent of respondents said that the PM's meeting was an 
indication that the PM wanted to solve the issue, and 11.9 
percent saw it as a turning point in Turkey's political life. 
 
Support for DEHAP Remains Strong 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
4. (SBU) Interestingly, when asked for which party they would 
cast their vote if elections were held today, 52.6 percent said 
DEHAP; 23.4 percent said AKP; 2.6 percent said CHP; 2.4 percent 
said DYP; and other parties received less than 2 percent of 
respondents' support.  A total of 12.2 percent of respondents 
either answered "none" or were undecided.  When asked if they 
would give their vote to the AK Party if it solved the Kurdish 
issue, 46.8 percent said yes, while 39.7 percent said no, and 
13.5 percent had no idea.  Finally, when asked the open-ended 
question of what they would do if they were authorized or had 
been given the authority to solve the Kurdish issue, almost 
one-third of respondents (32 percent) replied that they would 
allow free use of the Kurdish language and would recognize 
Kurds' ethnic identity. 
 
5. (SBU) Comment: Methodology for the Dicle University study was 
solid and more scientific than what was indicated in recent 
press reports about the poll.  In order to develop a more 
systematic baseline for understanding southeast Turkish public 
opinion, it might be useful for INR to consider funding 
follow-up, expanded polling which reaches beyond the immediate 
Diyarbakir area.  Professor Bagli was open to such an idea, and 
said that he had conducted polling for two EU countries in the 
past.  End Comment. 
 
 
 
REID