US embassy cable - 05ALMATY3919

UNCLAS  ALMATY 003919 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KZ, 2005 Election, POLITICAL 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP, 
OCTOBER 31 
 
REF: Almaty 3861 
 
1. (U) This is the sixth in a series of weekly election 
roundups, in advance of Kazakhstan's December 4, 2005 
presidential elections.  Items were drawn primarily from 
the local press and media. 
 
Commitments to Free and Fair Elections 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) OSCE Ambassador Julie Finley raised the 
importance of free and fair presidential elections during 
her October 27 visit to Astana.  Presidential 
Administration Deputy Tazhin maintained that all 
candidates will have equal access to the media, including 
the two government-controlled channels.  Central Elections 
Commission Chairman Zhumabekov pointed out that the CEC 
will monitor media access to ensure a level-playing field. 
Security Council Chairman Utemuratov said that President 
Nazarbayev had authorized him to meet with local officials 
to deliver the message that any falsification of election 
results would result in severe administrative punishment. 
Opposition leaders have been invited to consult 
independently with the akims.  Senate Chairman Abykayev 
echoed that word had gone out to the akims to steer clear 
of "over-fulfilling" the plan, i.e. pumping up the 
President's vote count.  Foreign Minister Tokayev noted 
that Kazakhstan was taking the elections "very seriously" 
and had taken a "huge" step forward since the 1999 
presidential elections.  Unlike the previous election, 
President Nazarbayev faced credible opposition candidates. 
 
Registration is Over 
-------------------- 
 
3. (U) Registration of candidates for the presidency ended 
on October 24.  On October 25, the Central Election 
Commission (CEC) announced that the registered candidates 
were Nursultan Nazarbayev, Zharmakhan Tuyakbay, Alikhan 
Baimenov, Yerasyl Abylkasymov and Mels Yeleusizov.  Eight 
other contenders failed to collect the required number of 
signatures in their support. 
 
4. (U) On October 26, the CEC approved the text of the 
ballot.  The names of candidates will be listed in 
alphabetical order. 
 
5. (U) The CEC has reported numerous violations of 
electoral legislation during the signature collection 
campaign: signatures were collected under the pretext of 
conducting a census and checking voters' lists; signature 
forms lacked passport data; some signatures were not 
authentic; some signatures were collected from persons 
under the legal age; some signatures belonged to the dead 
or people who emigrated.  According to the CEC, every 
candidate submitted a certain number of signatures that 
were found invalid: 
Nazarbayev: 641, or 0.38%; 
Tuyakbay: 16,236, or 13.55%; 
Baimenov: 23,486, or 18.36%; 
Abylkasymov: 10,925, or 10.21%; 
Yeleusizov: 2,442, or 2.55%. 
 
6. (U) As of October 24, the CEC had accredited 92 
observers from foreign states and international 
organizations, including 43 from OSCE/ODIHR, 12 from IFES, 
and 37 from the CIS. 
 
Election Campaign Begins 
------------------------ 
 
7. (U) The election campaign officially began on October 
25 and will last through December 2.  President Nazarbayev 
kicked off his campaign by opening 208 "Public Reception 
Offices" in every oblast, city, and district of the 
country.  Citizens can visit the offices to register 
complaints and requests; according to a Khabar report, 
some of the first visitors to the Astana office requested 
new apartments.  Nazarbayev's campaign staff have also 
organized a series of public events in Astana, 
Semipalatinsk, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Taraz, and Shymkent.  More 
than 6000 people reportedly attended the Ust-Kamenogorsk 
rally despite bad weather.  Over 30,000 reportedly 
attended the Shymkent rally, which had the theme "Only 
 
 
Nazarbayev Can Make Kazakhstan a Leading Country of the 
World."  A concert was held in Almaty on October 26 with 
the participation of various Kazakhstani celebrities. 
Finally, the pro-government Kaisar youth movement 
organized parade of over 40 cars and buses decorated with 
Kazakhstani and campaign flags through the streets of 
Almaty on October 25. 
 
8. (U) On October 25, Zharmakhan Tuyakbay held an event in 
Almaty to present his program of political, economic and 
social reforms called "To Decent Life through Justice." 
The main political points of the program include a drastic 
cut of the president's powers (including the nomination of 
the prime minister, the appointment of ministers upon 
consent of Parliament, the right to object to legislative 
acts of Parliament, the right to supervise international 
policy, defense and security issues and the right to grant 
citizenship and political asylum).  Legislative power will 
belong only to parliament.  Akims of all levels will be 
directly elected.  In addition, Tuyakbay outlined his 
future cabinet of ministers.  He named Bulat Abilov, Oraz 
Zhandosov, and Galymzhan Zhakiyanov as candidates for 
Prime Minister.  Communist leader Serikbolsyn Abdildin 
will be responsible for constitutional reform; Altynbek 
Sarsenbaiuly, national security; Tulegen Zhukeyev, foreign 
policy; and first Kazakh cosmonaut Tokhtar Aubakirov, 
defense. 
 
9. (SBU) The press has commented on the fact that both 
Nazarbayev and Tuyakbay have chosen yellow as their 
symbol.  Khabar TV ran a story claiming that the 
opposition "stole" the yellow color from Nazarbayev. 
Tuyakbay has said that "somebody else wants to hide 
himself under yellow banners."  In a meeting with USOSCE 
Ambassador Finley, Baimenov noted half-jokingly that for 
Kazakhstanis yellow represents China; his campaign colors 
are red, white, and blue. 
 
10. (U) Baimenov has so far had a lower profile than 
Nazarbayev and Tuyakbay.  At an October 26 press 
conference in Almaty, the Association of Maslikhat 
Deputies announced its decision to support Baimenov. 
(Note:  The majority of Maslikhat deputies are affiliated 
with pro-presidential parties. End note.) 
 
 
Nazarbayev Relatives Threaten Legal Action 
------------------------------------------ 
 
11. (SBU) First daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva issued a 
statement through Interfax on October 27 saying that 
President Nazarbayev's close relatives will take legal 
action against anyone who defames them in the press. 
"We reserve the right to appeal to various courts, 
including the international court, over each case of 
slander. We reserve the right to use consultations and 
other services of lawyers - both in our country and 
abroad. We intend to use the right to defend our honor and 
dignity as much as possible."  The statement continues, 
"We, the close relatives of the incumbent president, 
Nursultan Nazarbayev, declare that we will resolutely and 
firmly suppress all attempts to use our names, 
circumstances of our private lives, business, 
administrative and public activities to create and 
circulate politically-tinted myths directly or indirectly 
discrediting the head of state and damaging the country's 
reputation."  (Note:  The reference to action outside of 
Kazakhstan may be linked to questions posed by U.S. 
reporters during Secretary Rice's October 12-13 visit to 
Astana.  End note.) 
 
 
Tuyakbay's Campaign Literature Burns 
----------------------------------- 
 
12. (U) On October 26, a truck carrying 700,000 copies of 
Tuyakbay's campaign literature burned on the way to Ust- 
Kamenogorsk and Semipalatinsk, near Lake Sasykkol in 
Almaty Oblast.  The circumstances of the incident are 
murky.  According to one report, the driver claimed the 
truck caught on fire suddenly.  He tried but was unable to 
extinguish the fire, which destroyed copies of Tuyakbay's 
campaign program, his biography, and other booklets.  The 
Interior Ministry issued a statement saying that the truck 
 
 
burned as the result of a traffic accident, however. 
 
Opposition Activist Receives Jail Sentence 
------------------------------------------ 
 
13. (U) On October 26, FJK activist Marzhan Aspandiyarova 
was taken to Almaty Administrative Court and charged with 
an administrative violation for participating in the 
October 8 event for which Tulen Tokhtasynov and others 
were also prosecuted (reftel).  The court sentenced 
Aspandiyarova to a 10 day jail term, despite the fact that 
she was not an organizer of the event and the five other 
opposition activists were only fined.  On appeal, the City 
Court of Almaty on October 27 reduced the sentence to 24 
hours.  Aspandiyarova, who had declared a hunger strike 
and was being held in pre-trial detention with 
prostitutes, was released the same day. 
 
14. (SBU) According to opposition activist Petr Svoik, the 
court dealt harshly with Aspandiyarova for two reasons. 
First, she had annoyed Almaty City Akim Imangali 
Tasmagambetov by creating a committee called "Let's 
Protect our Home" to protest the demolition of homes in 
Almaty.  The committee unites homeless people and those 
whose homes are slated for demolition according to the 
Almaty redevelopment plan.  "The authorities are evicting 
people from their homes to build new restaurants and 
casinos," Svoik said.  (Note:  After protesting at 
Tasmagambetov's office two months ago, 15 committee 
members, including Aspandiyarova, were arrested.  The 
following day Aspandiyarova was hospitalized with a 
concussion allegedly resulting from police action. End 
note.)  Secondly, according to Svoik, Aspandiyarova is a 
smart member of Tuyakbay's campaign team. She has been 
traveling the country to train local coordinators.  The 
arrest could "knock her out" of the campaign.  (Comment: 
The protest movement has clearly touched a nerve. 
Demonstrations about the expropriation and demolition of 
private homes have brought small but vocally angry groups 
of people into the streets of Almaty over the past few 
months, a rare occurrence in Kazakhstan.  End comment.) 
 
 
Second Seizure of Svoboda Slova 
------------------------------- 
 
15. (U) Early on October 26, the Medeu district police in 
Almaty again seized the opposition "Svoboda Slova" 
newspaper (reftel).  The print run was 30,000 copies this 
time.  Later the same morning, however, a representative 
of the district police visited the offices of FJK and 
announced that the seizure had been a mistake.  The 
representative apologized for the seizure and asked the 
newspaper editor to retrieve the print run from the 
district police office. 
 
16. (U) Gulzhan Yergaliyeva, the editor-in-chief of 
Svoboda Slova, speculated publicly that the second seizure 
was prompted by an article entitled "How Aliya Nazarbayeva 
does her business."  The article reported that a company 
owned by the president's daughter was causing the 
"Alautransgas-Vostok" JSC to go bankrupt.  Yergaliyeva 
claimed the seizure was evidence that the authorities were 
using the fact that opposition papers were now printed at 
a printing house owned by a Nazarbayev relative to gain 
early access to each edition. 
 
Warnings against Contact with Foreigners 
---------------------------------------- 
 
17. (SBU) It appears that in at least three oblasts, 
authorities have issued a warning to avoid or monitor 
contact with foreigners in advance of the presidential 
elections.  In a western oblast, regional authorities have 
ordered that an English speaking faculty member or local 
official must supervise classes taught by a Peace Corps 
Volunteer (protect).  The rector of a university in an 
eastern city asked a PCV to leave the school due to a 
warning from local authorities to avoid contact with 
foreigners.  The rector relented when shown a letter sent 
by Peace Corps headquarters to all supervisors of 
volunteers stating that PCVs are not allowed to 
participate in any election-related activities.  In a 
southern oblast, several schools refused to meeting with 
 
 
Peace Corps staff to discuss placement of future PCVs due 
to the elections and a warning to avoid contact with 
foreigners. 
 
 
ORDWAY 
 
 
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