US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV6247

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 006247 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, IS, KDEM, ELECTIONS 2006, GOI EXTERNAL 
SUBJECT: SHARON POSTPONES PROBLEMATIC KNESSET VOTE ON 
CABINET APPOINTMENTS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones for reasons 1.4 (B/D). 
 
 1.  (C) Summary: With only hours to go before an October 31 
Knesset vote on -- and possible defeat of -- his Cabinet 
nominations of three Likud loyalists, including Ehud Olmert 
as finance minister, Prime Minister Sharon postponed the vote 
by a week in order to rally support and gauge his next steps. 
 While he commands a nominal Knesset majority of 66 votes, 
out of 120, so-called rebels within his own party need muster 
only seven votes against to block the nominations.  Sharon 
likely has the votes for Olmert, but not for the other two 
nominees, and needs to either bring into line a handful of 
Likud opponents, or negotiate support for the appointments 
from non-Likud Knesset members, probably via budget 
allocations to those members' favored programs.  Sharon 
refuses to submit the nominations separately.  Should the PM 
fail to get the necessary votes within Likud, opposition 
members could transform the vote into a no-confidence motion 
in his government.  PM Advisor Dov Weissglas told the 
Ambassador late October 30 that the Prime Minister is sick 
and tired of putting up with the rebels in his own party, and 
asserted that if Sharon were to lose the then-scheduled 
October 31 Cabinet appointment vote, he would immediately 
call for new elections -- seeking a new mandate for another 
four-year term.  End Summary. 
 
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MINISTERIAL MUSICAL CHAIRS 
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2.  (SBU) Sharon's nominations reward loyalists who helped 
him successfully stave off the efforts of Netanyahu and 
Landau, first to stop Gaza disengagement and then to unseat 
him from the Likud chairmanship.  The Cabinet shifts move 
Minister Ehud Olmert from his current Industry and Trade 
position to the Finance portfolio left open following MK 
Netanyahu's resignation.  Olmert has been acting Finance 
Minister since Netanyahu's departure, but this temporary term 
in office ends soon.  Likud MK Ronni Bar-On is to serve as 
Industry and Trade minister, replacing Olmert.  Minister 
Matan Vilnai (Labor) will serve as minister of Science and 
Technology, a post that he assumed in an acting capacity 
several months ago.  Finally, Likud MK Ze'ev Boim will leave 
his post as a deputy defense minister to head the Immigration 
Absorption Ministry, leaving Acting Absorption Minister and 
Justice Minister Tsipi Livni free to manage the Israel 
Broadcasting Authority, a responsibility she will assume over 
objections of the Labor Party.  Boim will also serve as the 
liaison between the Cabinet and the Knesset, a position that 
Minister (without portfolio) Tzachi Hanegbi has filled. 
Hanegbi, in turn, will be responsible for monitoring progress 
on implementing the "Jerusalem Envelope" plans. (NB: Sharon 
has named Hanegbi as his representative in Israel's strategic 
dialogue with the U.S. End Note.) 
 
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LIKUD REBELS BALK AT SHARON APPOINTMENTS 
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3. (SBU) PM Sharon invited all 40 Likud Knesset members to 
his residence in Jerusalem the evening of October 30, just 
after the Cabinet formally endorsed his nominations, and less 
than 24 hours before the scheduled Knesset vote. 
Significantly, Coalition leader MK Gidon Sa'ar, who wobbled 
during disengagement and sided with Netanyahu in pressing for 
early Likud primaries, joined the gathering, as did Foreign 
Affairs Committee Chairman Yuval Steinitz, a harsh critic of 
many Sharon policies.  Sa'ar reportedly is pressing 
dissidents to support Sharon on the nominations, citing 
Sharon's win in the September Central Committee vote that 
avoided early primaries.  The core of Sharon's intra-Likud 
opposition -- Netanyahu, and Uzi Landau as well as MKs 
Ratzon, Levy, Blumenthal, Gorlovsky, and Edelstein -- were 
no-shows, although six other "rebel" MKs did attend (Gilad 
Erdan, Yehiel Hazan, Ehud Yatom, Moshe Kahlon, Haim Katz, and 
Lea Nass).  MK Yatom commented to the press that "There is no 
connection between the battle over the path (of Likud) and 
the prime minister's invitation," but Israeli pundits were 
busy October 31 factoring attendance figures into 
calculations of the PM's options in the Knesset since as 
little as seven votes could be enough to topple Sharon's 
governing coalition if the appointments vote morphs into a 
no-confidence motion.  Some of the rebels are reportedly 
demanding the return of Landau, who was fired in 2004, and 
Sharansky, who quit in 2005, to the Government, a deal that 
Sharon will undoubtedly refuse just as he refused Netanyahu's 
demand to move up Likud primaries. 
 
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MINISTERIAL APPOINTMENTS TEST SHARON'S STRENGTH IN THE KNESSET 
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4.  (C) Broad support exists within the Likud Party and the 
Knesset generally for Olmert's move from his current 
portfolio (Industry, Trade and Labor) to Finance, where he 
currently serves as the acting minister.  A Shas Party 
advisor told poloff October 31 that his party would support 
Olmert's nomination but would not support the two other 
nominations.  Likud rebels are threatening to withhold 
support for Bar-On and Boim, whose appointments are viewed -- 
by the rebels and everyone else -- as rewards for supporting 
Sharon during the disengagement process.  The Cabinet 
appointments were submitted as a "package" in order to 
prevent Sharon's opponents from rejecting Bar-On and Boim, 
and Sharon has squelched rumors -- emanating from Olmert's 
camp -- that he will split the appointments and allow the 
Knesset a separate vote on Olmert, by reiterating strongly 
that he wants a single vote on the three.  Commenting to the 
press on these Cabinet appointments, Netanyahu called it "a 
corrupt deal... Sharon bought votes in return for a pottage 
of positions."  Last March, Netanyahu effectively vetoed 
ministerial appointments for Bar-On and Boim, ostensibly on 
financial grounds that "new ministers ... will cut education, 
welfare and defense budgets."  Now, some powerful Labor Party 
coalition members are sounding a similar theme, and MKs 
Peretz and Mitzna have said they will vote against the Bar-On 
and Boim appointments. Several Shinui MKs told poloff October 
31 that they will vote against all three. 
 
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NEXT STEPS: RESIGNATION AND DISSOLUTION OF THE KNESSET? 
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5. (C) The PM's adviser, Dov Weissglas, told the Ambassador 
late October 30 that the Prime Minister is tired of the 
failure of Likud rebels to support him and his decisions. 
Sharon, in Weissglas' view, feels that he is at his peak and 
that the opposition is divided.  Weissglas asserted that if 
the October 31 Cabinet vote were to fail, this combination of 
frustration and confidence will drive the Prime Minister to 
dissolve the Knesset and proceed to new elections, allowing 
Sharon to secure a new, four-year mandate.  The postponement, 
which we have been told by PM adviser Shalom Tourgeman came 
at the request of the rebels and was accepted to allow 
tempers to cool, gives Sharon the option of at least two 
easier, less disruptive courses before facing that decision: 
try to secure within the week enough votes to win the 
appointments as a package, or break apart the package and 
press for each candidate individually. 
 
6.  (C) Note: The option of moving for new elections is 
available to Sharon under Article 29 of the Basic law.  Were 
Sharon to resign the premiership and secure the President's 
agreement to dissolve the Knesset, the President would have 
at least two opportunities to identify another MK capable of 
forming a government.  That process could stretch over some 
65 days.  In the more likely event that no Knesset member is 
found who is capable of forming a viable government, the law 
calls for elections to be held within 90 days.  Sharon could, 
instead of himself calling for dissolution of the Knesset, 
cast the appointments vote as a "vote of confidence" in his 
government, a move that could up the ante for coalition 
members who are considering voting against the appointments. 
 
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