US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV6246

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TEL AVIV 006246 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2015 
TAGS: PREL, OREP, IS, EG, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, GOI EXTERNAL, COUNTERTERRORISM, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT 
SUBJECT: STAFFDEL ZWEIG/ADAMS-GOI DISCUSSIONS ON HAMAS, 
WOLFENSOHN AGENDA, ARAB-ISRAELI RELATIONS AND THE UN 
 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1. (B) and 
(D). 
 
1. (C) Summary: HIRC professional staff members Matthew Zweig 
and David Adams discussed Hamas and PLC elections, progress 
on the Wolfensohn agenda, Israeli relations with Muslim 
states, and UN issues with Israelis, the Wolfensohn team, and 
USG officials during a visit to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem on 
October 8-12.  All of the staffdel's interlocutors expressed 
concern about Hamas's participation in PLC elections and 
predicted that Hamas will win between 20 and 40 percent of 
the vote.  Deputy National Security Adviser Eran Etzion 
suggested a number of steps that the international community 
could take to strengthen pro-democracy forces in the West 
Bank and Gaza at the expense of the extremists.  The 
Wolfensohn team stressed the importance of reopening the 
Rafah crossing and discussed the status of greenhouses in 
Gaza and transit links between Gaza and the West Bank.  The 
staffdel heard divergent views on the status of 
Israeli-Egyptian relations and received an update on the 
GOI's efforts to expand contacts with Arab and other Muslim 
states.  The MFA briefed the staffdel on Israeli priorities 
at the UN and the status of the MDA/ICRC issue.  End summary. 
 
--------------------------- 
Hamas and the PLC Elections 
--------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Every Israeli and international official who spoke 
with the staffdel expressed concern about Hamas's 
participation in PLC elections and predicted that Hamas will 
win between 20 and 40 percent of the vote in planned January 
elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council.  Deputy 
National Security Adviser Eran Etzion said such a result will 
result in a "complete halt to the peace process."  He 
described Hamas as "the only real threat to the PA," adding 
that a strong showing by Hamas would legitimize the group. 
He said Israel's position is that Hamas must abandon its 
capabilities and intention to conduct terrorism and change 
its charter if it wants to participate in the elections.  He 
cautioned that absent such steps, Israel "will not assist the 
elections," which he added will make it "next to impossible" 
to conduct a legitimate contest. 
 
3. (C) The staffdel asked what the international community 
could do to limit the influence of extremists and strengthen 
pro-reform forces around President Abbas.  Etzion replied 
that -- while there is no unified GOI answer to that question 
-- possible steps include: 
 
-- issuing a statement by the G-8, Quartet or other forum 
making it clear that groups advocating violence should not be 
permitted to contest the elections; 
 
-- presenting Hamas with a clear choice of remaining a 
terrorist group or fully renouncing violence; 
 
-- asking Hamas candidates to sign affidavits that they do 
not support violence; 
 
-- cutting off funding of all assistance projects in 
municipalities governed by Hamas (MFA EU Director Shmuel 
Ravel later said that Israel does not believe that the EU 
would takes such steps); 
 
-- fully supporting rapid progress on the Wolfensohn agenda; 
and 
 
-- pressuring Abbas to extract a higher price for Hamas's 
participation in the PLC elections. 
 
A member of the Wolfensohn team (but not any GOI officials) 
also suggested that the GOI release additional prisoners to 
help Abbas demonstrate that his government is making progress 
on an issue important to the Palestinian public. 
 
4. (C) The director of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and 
Defense Committee, Rear Admiral Avriel Bar Joseph, 
acknowledged that Knesset members are split on the question 
of Hamas's participation in the PLC elections, with a small 
number of MKs believing that such a step would moderate the 
group.  MFA Principal Deputy Legal Adviser Daniel Taub noted 
that the Oslo accords do not mention armed groups, although 
the Israeli-Palestinian Interim Agreement on the West Bank 
and Gaza Strip of September 28, 1995, prohibits candidates 
who pursue the implementation of their aims by unlawful or 
non-democratic means.  He said the Palestinian Central 
Election Commission should take action against Hamas. 
 
5. (C) In response to questions by the staffdel, the 
Wolfensohn team said that the security situation in Gaza has 
improved, with the PA beginning a crackdown against the 
public display of weaponry.  Communications Advisor Khader 
Abusway noted that PA forces are still weak and that Abbas 
has traditionally shied away from confronting extremist 
groups.  MOD Political Director Amos Gilad said he believes 
that Abbas is opposed to terror, but called him "a one-man 
show."  Gilad complained that the PA is "doing nothing" to 
confront extremists.  Etzion said he was "baffled" by Abbas's 
inaction, attributing it in part to a lack of command and 
control capability.  IDF analyst Itai Brun disagreed, telling 
staffdel that the main problem is the lack of political will 
among the PA leadership.  Abusway said a PA call for 
disarmament would be equivalent to "political suicide." 
 
6. (C) IDF analyst Brun maintained that Palestinian public 
opinion has increased in importance since Arafat's death. 
The views of "the street" give President Abbas a chance to 
achieve his political agenda.  Brun claimed that Abbas now 
realizes that his goal of incorporating Hamas into the 
political process is unlikely to succeed and that the group 
intends to establish a parallel authority to the PA without 
relinquishing its "jihadist identity."  Abusway speculated 
that Hamas's goal is to join the PA while separating its own 
political and military wings. 
 
7. (C) MFA EU Director Ravel said that the GOI has objected 
to EU contacts with elected Hamas officials in the West Bank 
and Gaza.  He noted that the EU intends to increase its 
assistance to the PA police and said that the GOI may make 
its approval contingent upon a change in the EU's position on 
Hamas.  David Horovitz, editor-in-chief of the "Jerusalem 
Post," claimed, however, that Israeli officials routinely 
deal with Hamas officials on the local level.  Note: The 
Israeli press has carried a number of reports of such 
contact.  End note. 
 
----------------------------- 
Post-Disengagement Scenarios, 
the Barrier and Oslo Accords 
----------------------------- 
 
8. (C) In each meeting, staffdel asked its hosts about 
possible post-disengagement scenarios.  None of the Israelis 
could predict with any certainty what PM Sharon might do 
next.  Horovitz said that Sharon is looking at an interim 
solution with the Palestinians because he does not believe a 
final status agreement is possible in his lifetime.  GOI 
officials were unanimous in their belief that Sharon would 
continue construction of the security/separation barrier. 
MFA EU Director Ravel said that EU opposition to the barrier 
had been limited to statements on the issue and that due to 
the disengagement process, there is "no real pressure on 
Israel today."  MFA Legal Adviser Taub noted that there are 
still several court cases on the Jerusalem portion of the 
barrier pending in Israeli courts. 
 
9. (C) The staffdel asked about Israeli views on the status 
of the Oslo accords.  Knesset staffer Bar Joseph said that 
"people pick and choose" the sections of the Oslo agreements 
that they like."  Deputy NSA Etzion insisted that the GOI 
does not see Oslo as a positive model for future agreements. 
Taub said that his department has little doubt that the bulk 
of the Oslo arrangements are still in force, noting that 
neither side has publicly declared Oslo void and both sides 
have referred to the accords in subsequent agreements. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
Wolfensohn Agenda: Rafah, Greenhouses, Transit and Aid 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
10. (C) The Wolfensohn team stressed the political and 
economic importance of re-opening the Rafah crossing as 
quickly as possible.  The U.S representative on the team said 
that the two sides disagree on timing, but otherwise agree 
that only people with Palestinian identity cards would cross 
at Rafah and that Rafah would be monitored remotely by the 
Israelis, with third-party observers and trainers on the 
ground.  Discussions are underway for handling imports at 
Kerem Shalom and exports at Rafah, he added, but are not 
finalized.  MOD PolDir Amos Gilad said he had held talks with 
the PA on October 9-10 about Rafah. 
 
11. (C) The staffdel asked the Wolfensohn team about the 
status of the greenhouses in Gaza.  The U.S. representative 
replied that 80 percent of the Israeli-owned Gaza greenhouses 
had been purchased and transferred to the PA; ten percent of 
this total had been severely damaged in the 
post-disengagement chaos, and another 25 percent was lightly 
damaged.  As a result, approximately one-half of the 
pre-disengagement greenhouses are currently operational. 
 
12.(C) Lynn Hastings, the UN representative on Wolfensohn's 
team, said the temporary solution for Palestinian movement 
between Gaza and the West Bank is likely to take the form of 
Israeli-escorted bus convoys.  She noted that USAID is 
funding a study on longer-term solutions, including possible 
rail and/or road connections. 
 
13. (C) Hastings said that the Wolfensohn team has identified 
USD 750 million in assistance available for quick impact 
projects focused on job creation and infrastructure 
improvements.  A U.S. Treasury official added that the 
Wolfensohn team hopes that regional donors would assist the 
PA with its budgetary shortfall.  Finance Minister Salam 
Fayyad will soon travel to the Gulf states in search of 
funding to close the PA's USD 250 million budget gap, she 
said.  Her colleague Ramsey Jamil cautioned donors that 
planned international assistance levels might be too low 
considering the increase in the Palestinian population.  MFA 
EU Director Ravel noted that the EU plans to double its 
assistance to the Palestinians next year from 250 million to 
500 million Euros.  In addition, Ravel said, EU members 
states donate nearly 500 million Euros of assistance, making 
total European contribution to the PA approximately one 
billion Euros and increasing European influence accordingly. 
Senior Researcher Ramsey Jamil noted that the utility of 
large-scale economic assistance is limited, because such aid 
"couldn't happen in a vacuum" absent substantial reforms in 
the PA. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
Improving Relations with Egypt and Other Muslim States 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
14. (C) Knesset staffer Bar Joseph claimed that opposition to 
the Border Guard agreement by committee Chairman Yuval 
Steinitz had been key in prohibiting the deployment of 
Egyptian troops throughout the Sinai, a move Steinitz 
believed would have violated the Camp David accords.  In the 
end, however, he claimed that the committee's view is that 
the Border Guard deployment is irrelevant, because Israel has 
already agreed to a seaport and airport and "there is no need 
to guard the window when you have already opened the door." 
MOD PolDir Gilad claimed that relations with Egypt had 
improved as a result of disengagement and the Border Guard 
agreement.  He noted that the presence of 45 Egyptian 
advisers in Gaza helps the PA, but complained that the 
Egyptians give Hamas the same treatment as Fatah.  He 
expressed concern about the safety of the Egyptian advisers, 
noting that a recent Israeli airstrike had targeted an 
extremist standing 20 meters from where an Egyptian general 
was passing by. 
 
15. (C) Bar Joseph acknowledged that "there are (Knesset) 
members ... who see Egypt as a threat."  He urged the USG to 
switch its military assistance to Egypt to economic projects, 
questioning why the Egyptians need advanced U.S. aircraft and 
weapons systems.  MOD PolDir Gilad dismissed the idea that 
Egypt is preparing to attack Israel, but echoed Knesset 
concerns about the modernization of Egyptian forces and 
requested that the USG continue to support the maintenance of 
Israel's qualitative military edge.  The staffdel noted that 
the Congress had urged Egypt to justify its purchases by 
presenting a threat analysis and strategy. 
 
16. (C) Bar Joseph complained that Egypt is actively 
campaigning against Israeli participation in international 
organizations.  MFA EU Director Ravel echoed this complaint 
and urged the USG to exert influence in Cairo to change 
Egypt's attitude towards cooperation with Israel.  MFA Chief 
of Staff Yaki Dayan complained that Egypt is discouraging 
other Arab states from establishing relations with Israel. 
 
17. (C) Dayan, Bar Joseph, and Gilad separately praised 
cooperation with Jordan.  Gilad said that the Jordanians "are 
really protecting our eastern border" and urged the USG to 
provide additional support to Amman.  Dayan highlighted the 
importance of the Qualifying Industrial Zones (QIZs) and said 
that King Abdullah would visit Israel in November.  In a 
discussion with the staffdel on Lebanon, Ravel said that the 
GOI had officially protested a meeting by EU ambassadors with 
the Hizballah water minister in the new government.  He 
described France as the main hindrance to a more active EU 
role countering Hizballah. 
 
18. (C) Dayan told the staffdel that he and MFA Director 
General Ron Prosor had toured Arab states prior to 
disengagement.  He said that Gulf states, such as Qatar and 
the UAE, are willing to do business with Israel behind closed 
doors and speculated that a combination of commercial 
interests, fear of Iran, and USG pressure had helped change 
their long-standing opposition to contact with Israel.  Dayan 
added that Maghreb countries are more concerned about public 
opinion, Al-Qaeda, and concrete benefits from ties to Israel. 
 He noted that Israel has separate dialogues with Pakistan, 
Indonesia, and Malaysia.  He expressed appreciation for 
Congressional letters to Muslim leaders urging them to 
improve relations with Israel and requested that the U.S. to 
"use any possible leverage" in the future. 
 
19. (C) The Israelis were not optimistic about developments 
in Syria.  Etzion said that that "something has to give" in 
Damascus, but the GOI has no information on who might 
potentially succeed Asad.  Gilad and IDF analyst Brun echoed 
these views in separate meetings.  According to Brun, the GOI 
believes Syria was responsible for the Hariri assassination. 
 
20. (C) Bar Joseph stressed Knesset concerns that the Iranian 
nuclear program will be problematic for U.S. forces in Iraq, 
lead to the fall of regimes in Jordan and Egypt, and increase 
the freedom of operation for terrorists.  He insisted that 
the Iranians need to receive the same message that Libya did, 
i.e., the international community will not tolerate a 
nuclear-weapons program in the country.  Etzion said that the 
Russians had recently told NSA Giora Eiland that they are 
skeptical that international pressure can prevent Iran from 
achieving its goal of developing nuclear weapons. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
Israeli Priorities in the UN/Status of MDA 
------------------------------------------ 
 
21. (C) MFA Acting Office Director for UN Political Affairs 
Gershon Kedar told the staffdel that Israel's main agenda in 
the UN is to move from being a "one-issue country" to a 
"normal" member.  The GOI is pushing to fill its quota of 
Israeli employees throughout the UN system, especially in the 
peacekeeping secretariat, and to join all WEOG consultative 
groups.  The GOI is seeking a critical mass of co-sponsors 
for its Holocaust remembrance and education resolution to 
deter unwelcome amendments.  Kedar said the GOI will change 
tactics on anti-Israel resolutions, focusing on obtaining 
more support to "reform" anachronistic Palestinian-focused 
organizations -- particularly the Division for Palestinian 
Rights, the Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable 
rights of the Palestinian People, and the Special Committee 
to Investigate Israeli Human Rights Practices.  He noted that 
the GOI is considering withholding the portion of its annual 
contribution that goes towards funding these committees. 
Kedar and MFA Legal Adviser Taub said that the GOI would like 
to see UNRWA devolve many of its activities to the PA. 
Israel would also like to see UNIFIL ended, and will lobby 
behind the scenes for substantial cuts to UNIFIL troop 
strength. 
 
22. (C) MFA Chief of Staff Dayan said that the Arab League 
and certain (unnamed) PA officials are playing an unhelpful 
role in Israel's efforts to resolve the MDA/ICRC issue.  Taub 
said Arab opposition to the MDA had changed from objections 
about the symbol to complaints about where MDA operates. 
Claiming that "the ball is in the Swiss court," Taub 
requested that the USG tell the Swiss that MDA has made 
enough concessions and that the issue should be resolved on 
its own merits and not as part of the overall peace process. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
GOI Welcomes Resumption of Strategic Dialogue 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
23. (C) MFA Director for U.S. Legislative Affairs Eyal Sela 
noted that 20 percent of Congress -- 86 representatives and 
20 Senators -- have visited Israel in the past year.  He 
added that the MFA has lobbied other parts of the Israeli 
government to "do whatever is needed" to restore ties damaged 
by Israeli defense exports to China.  The staffdel stressed 
the bipartisan nature of concern on this issue.  MOD PolDir 
Gilad welcomed the resumption of a strategic dialogue with 
the USG.  MFA Chief of Staff Dayan said the GOI plans to use 
the dialogue to brief the USG on Israel's relations with each 
Muslim country, focusing on areas where U.S. pressure might 
help. 
 
24. (U) Staffdel Zweig/Adams were unable to clear this cable 
before departing the region. 
 
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