US embassy cable - 02HARARE2623

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 002623 
 
SIPDIS 
 
USAID/W FOR DCHA/OFDA FOR HAJJAR, HALMREST-SANCHEZ, 
KHANDAGLE AND MARX 
DCHA/FFP FOR LANDIS, BRAUSE, SKORIC AND PETERSEN 
AFR/SA FOR POE AND COPSON 
AFR/SD FOR ISALROW AND WHELAN 
STATE FOR AF/S DELISI AND RAYNOR 
NAIROBI FOR DCHA/OFDA/ARO FOR RILEY, MYER AND CHIKODZORE 
REDSO/ESA/FFP FOR SENYKOFF 
GENEVA PLEASE PASS TO UNOCHA, IFRC 
PRETORIA FOR USAID/DCHA/FFP FOR DISKIN 
DCHA/OFDA FOR BRYAN AND MUELLER, AND FAS FOR HELM 
ROME PLEASE PASS TO FODAG 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID, PREL, US, ZI, Agriculture 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FOR 2002/03 SEASON 
 
 
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Summary 
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1. As of mid-November, rainfall has been slightly below 
normal over most of the country.  If the rains persist, 
those farmers that have already planted could reap good 
harvests.  Although those farmers that have not yet planted 
can still reap good harvests, they will have less 
flexibility to adjust their planting strategies in response 
to any adverse weather or other conditions.  Generally, seed 
availability is "patchy", depending on the type and location 
of the demand.  The recent increase in seed prices has also 
reduced the amount of seed that farmers can afford.  In 
addition to seed availability, other constraints to 
agricultural productivity include fuel, tillage and 
fertilizer shortages, farm labor and financing constraints, 
the developing El Nino in the Pacific, and a lack of market 
incentives.  While some commercial farmers have been able to 
plant this year, large areas of prime farmland remain idle. 
USAID/DCHA/OFDA supports several programs in Zimbabwe to 
improve food security and expedite agricultural recovery, 
but partner NGOs are also feeling the effects of the 
shortages.  Although still too early for accurate 
projections, the consensus outlook is for another sub- 
standard harvest in April 2003.  The agriculture situation 
in Zimbabwe needs constant monitoring as the final outcome 
will determine the food security situation and additional 
assistance needs for 2003.  End Summary. 
 
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Climate 
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2. On October 4, the Government Meteorological Department 
(MET) issued a slightly revised forecast for the 2002/03 
season from the September Southern Africa Regional Climate 
Outlook Forum (SARCOF) prediction.  For the period October 
2002 to December 2003, the revised MET forecast calls for 
normal to below normal rainfall for the entire country (as 
opposed to the earlier SARCOF forecast which split the 
country into northern and southern sections, with slightly 
more optimistic projections for the northern areas).  From 
January to March 2003, all forecasts also call for normal to 
below normal rainfall throughout Zimbabwe.  As of mid- 
November, rainfall has been slightly below normal (80% of 
average) over most of the country.  If the rains persist, 
those farmers that have already planted could reap good 
harvests.  Although those farmers that have not yet planted 
can still reap good harvests, they will have less 
flexibility to pursue more flexible planting strategies, 
such as staggering crops, to better accommodate any adverse 
weather or other conditions. 
 
3. This situation becomes even more critical considering the 
El Nino phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean which 
generally has a strong effect on rainfall in southern 
Africa.  The most recent information suggests that this is 
likely to develop into a moderate event during the latter 
part of this year, which could result in sub-normal rainfall 
and agricultural drought in certain parts of the country. 
 
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Seed Security 
------------- 
 
4. Following several successive years of adverse conditions, 
most small-scale farmers have not been able to maintain 
adequate seed stocks, forcing many to turn to the market for 
purchase of these essential inputs.  Generally, seed 
availability varies with type and location.  While good 
quantities of maize seed are still available, sorghum, 
millet, soyabean, and groundnut seed have been sold out by 
most major suppliers.  However, limited quantities of these 
seeds are still available in smaller towns in rural areas, 
as evidenced at recent Catholic Relief Services (CRS) seed 
fairs.  Even with access to seed, the recent increase in 
seed prices - from 120 to more than 300 percent - has 
reduced the amount of seed that farmers can afford.  The 
Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ) and the relief community are 
left to try to make up the deficit. 
5. The government has purchased large quantities of seed for 
delivery to small-scale and resettled farmers.  Reports 
indicate government purchases of 25,000 Metric Tons (MT) of 
maize seed to date.  However, even government admits to 
significant supply shortages, and having to seek additional 
requirements from external sources.  Combined donor- 
assistance via the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization 
(FAO) and NGOs funded by bilateral donors totals 5,983 MT of 
maize seed, 2,829 MT of small grains (sorghum/millet) and 
1,415 MT of cowpeas seed for some 615,000 beneficiary farmer 
households to date.  Although it is still too early for any 
accurate estimates, the total maize seed purchased to date 
(approximately 45,000 MT) is estimated to be able to plant 
an area of about 1.6 million hectares.  At an estimated 
yield of 0.6 to 0.8 Metric Tons (MT) per hectare, this would 
yield between 960,000 and 1,280,000 MT of maize, about 50 to 
70 percent of the national requirement (1.8 million MT). 
The relatively low yield factor is based on a variety of 
additional production constraints discussed below. 
 
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OFDA Partner Programs 
--------------------- 
6. OFDA supports several programs in commercial farming 
areas of Zimbabwe, but not in areas of resettlement, to 
improve food security and expedite agricultural recovery. 
Current OFDA-supported agricultural recovery programs, 
totaling approximately USD 1.6 million, provide for the 
provision of mixed seed baskets (maize, sorghum/millet, 
cowpeas, etc.) to some 200,000 beneficiary farmer households 
by the NGOs CARE, World Vision and CRS.  CARE has managed to 
secure all of the seed required for its program and is in 
the process of transporting it to its distribution end- 
points.  World Vision is seeking sorghum and cowpea seed 
imports from Botswana and South Africa, but has encountered 
delays due to new GOZ requirements for certification that 
imported seed is bio-tech free.  CRS has just completed its 
seed fair program, where small-scale farmers use vouchers to 
purchase seed and other inputs from local and commercial 
seed vendors.  All the NGOs have reported difficulties in 
obtaining adequate fertilizer (which is not eligible for 
funding under USG-financed interventions), as have NGOs in 
neighboring countries. 
 
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Production Constraints 
---------------------- 
 
7. With delays in oil supply deals and the broader economic 
downturn, fuel shortages are now recurring throughout the 
country.  Long queues and stock-outs at gasoline stations 
are becoming commonplace.  This has begun to impact on 
transportation costs in all sectors of the economy, 
including especially the agricultural sector.  At a recent 
seed fair, several seed vendors and a local NGO helping to 
conduct the fair were late or didn't show up at all because 
of the lack of fuel.  Even with access to inputs and the 
capability to plant, commercial farmers are not able to 
maximize their production potential because of the 
increasing cost of operating their farm equipment.  Within 
the smallholder and resettlement sectors, livestock de- 
stocking and disease outbreaks (principally foot-and-mouth 
disease) have significantly reduced draught power available 
for land preparation activities.  Expected support from 
government District Development Fund (DDF) tractors is 
similarly hampered, with more than half of the DDF tractor 
fleet disabled due to lack of spare parts and fuel supplies. 
 
8. Other constraints to agricultural production include 
fertilizer shortages, farm labor and credit constraints, 
pests, and market disincentives.  Low soil fertility in 
small-scale farming areas needs to be improved by manure 
and/or fertilizers.  Chemical fertilizers are in short 
supply due to lack of foreign exchange to pay for imported 
components.  Presently, it is estimated that only 50 percent 
of the requirements are being met.  Even NGOs, which paid 
for fertilizer for their assistance programs weeks ago, 
report having to wait for it to become available as the 
planting "window" passes.  Moreover, like seeds and fuel, 
recent increases in the price of fertilizer have also 
reduced access by many cash-strapped small-scale farmers. 
 
9. In addition to the tillage constraints noted above, farm 
labor is in short supply due both to the upheavals created 
by the resettlement program and the ravages of the HIV/AIDS 
pandemic.  Somewhat ironically, the Minister of Social 
Welfare (July Moyo) acknowledged a lack of skilled farm 
labor (presumably for new "model A2"/commercial resettled 
farmers) in a recent meeting with visiting U.S. General 
Accounting Office (GAO) officials.  And, the impact of the 
HIV/AIDS pandemic is well documented, with an estimated 
800,000 orphans and many more child- and elderly-headed 
households no longer able to meet the physical rigors of 
agricultural cultivation without assistance this year. 
 
10. The lack of economic incentive to grow maize for 
commercial markets, resulting from GOZ price controls on 
major food crops, will also inhibit production.  Financing 
for agricultural production is also limited, as banks are 
hesitant to extend credit to farms under the threat of 
seizure and, in the case of the newly resettled farmers, to 
those who do not possess clear title to land.  And, finally, 
trans-border migratory pests (e.g., armyworms and locusts), 
which tend to be worse following a drought, may also pose 
additional problems for agricultural production this year. 
 
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Commercial Farms 
---------------- 
 
11. A limited number of the commercial farmers who have 
managed to maintain possession of their farms have been able 
to plant this year.  Evidence of this is visible along some 
of Zimbabwe's major roadways, where maize crops planted in 
early October are now knee-high.  Commercial farm plantings 
observed by OFDA include maize, wheat and tobacco.  However, 
this productive use of commercial farmland is not 
widespread, with large areas of idle land prevalent 
throughout the prime agricultural areas of the country.  An 
estimated 600 large commercial farmers have remained on the 
land and could plant this year; however, given continuing 
insecurity and other constraints, it remains unclear how 
many will actually do so.  Even on those commercial farms 
that can plant, escalating fuel and seed costs, low producer 
prices and continuing security risks will likely limit the 
areas planted to major/controlled food crops.  As a result, 
we can expect a continued slide in production this season in 
this sub-sector. 
 
12. Similarly, crop production on resettled commercial farms 
is also expected to be low this year, as many resettled 
farmers have yet to take up their newly acquired properties 
and/or await finalization of proper "ownership" 
documentation.  In addition, due to the constraints noted 
above, most resettled farmers do not have the resources to 
work these properties (many of which have been previously 
used as grazing land for livestock and, therefore, require 
extensive inputs for preparation for crop cultivation), at 
the same level as the prior commercial owners.  For example, 
one former commercial farmer interviewed by OFDA reported 
that the settlers who took over his farm last year were only 
able to produce 11 tons on the same area that usually 
produced more than 100 tons of maize. 
 
13. Although pastures are generally good, livestock herds 
have been decimated due to the commercial farm seizures.  It 
is reported that the commercial herd has been reduced by two- 
thirds from 1.2 million to 400,000 over the past several 
years.  The resettlement chaos has also resulted in 
significant additional losses in livestock and wildlife due 
to increased theft, poaching and disease outbreaks (e.g., 
foot-and-mouth, anthrax).  The significant reduction in 
livestock herds will have a dramatic impact on the 
availability of meat and dairy products, which is already 
beginning to be felt. 
------------------------------- 
Conclusions and Recommendations 
------------------------------- 
 
14. Although it is still early in the season for any 
accurate predictions, Zimbabwe's agricultural outlook is 
mixed at best, and much will depend on the adequacy and 
distribution of rainfall in the coming months.  However, 
even with sufficient rainfall the prospects for an adequate 
season are poor, given the plethora of land, fuel, tillage, 
labor, market, input and other production constraints noted 
above.  The relief community is trying to fill the gaps, but 
even with the means, the shortages throughout the country 
are making this extremely difficult.  The net result is 
another sub-standard harvest expected in April 2003. 
 
15. The agricultural situation in Zimbabwe needs constant 
monitoring as the outcome will determine the food security 
situation and additional assistance needs for 2003.  The 
agricultural recovery process should be expedited, and 
contingency plans for planting alternative crops put in 
place.  Due to the difficulties of procuring seed - a 
situation which is expected to worsen considerably next year 
as a result of the effects of the resettlement program - 
NGOs should develop their plans and begin joint preparations 
for next season's agricultural requirements now.  Sullivan