US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4403

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004403 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENE SETTER: TAIPEI COUNTY 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reasons: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: The ruling Democratic Progressive Party 
(DPP) and opposition Kuomintang (KMT) both view Taipei County 
as the most important contest in the December 3 local 
elections and a key indicator of relative party strength 
following the KMT's election of Taipei City Mayor Ma 
Ying-jeou as its new Chairman and a series of scandals 
involving the DPP.  Both parties expect a tight race that 
will go down to the wire despite opinion polls that show the 
KMT's Chou Hsi-wei with a substantial and growing lead over 
the DPP's Luo Wen-jia.  The KMT's campaign strategy is to 
turn the election into a referendum on public dissatisfaction 
with the DPP central government's performance, while Luo 
Wen-jia will campaign on his personal record and image as a 
reformer and try to minimize his personal connections to 
President Chen.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU) The contest for Taipei County Magistrate is widely 
viewed here as the most important race in the December 3 
local elections.  It is also viewed as a key test of strength 
between the ruling Demographic Progressive Party (DPP) and 
the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) in the run up to the 
presidential election in 2008, when the DPP expects to face a 
formidable foe: the highly popular Taipei City Mayor and new 
KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou.  Taipei County is the largest 
local jurisdiction in Taiwan, with 3.7 million people, and 
its population, mostly migrants from throughout Taiwan, 
reflects the demographics of the island as a whole.  Although 
Blue supporters outnumber Green supporters in Taipei County 
by a small margin, the local government has been in DPP hands 
since 1989.  The DPP is deeply concerned that the charges of 
scandals and poor government performance swirling around 
President Chen Shui-bian and the central government may cost 
them the election in Taipei County, 
 
3.  (C) Acting Magistrate Lin Hsi-yao is filling in 
temporarily after the popular Su Tseng-chang stepped down as 
Taipei County Magistrate when he assumed the post of 
Presidential Office Secretary General in May 2004, before 
becoming DPP chairman last January.  Some AIT contacts 
suggest that Su will have to step down as party chairman if 
the DPP loses Taipei County and that this will end Su's 
prospects to compete for the DPP presidential nomination. 
Other contacts suggest, however, that Su will stay on as 
party chairman if the margin of defeat in Taipei County is 
close.  (In any event, Su has not impressed us as a quitter.) 
 
4.  (SBU) The DPP has selected Luo Wen-jia, a rising 
political star but an outsider to Taipei County politics, to 
run for magistrate.  Luo, who has long been closely 
associated with Chen Shui-bian, stepped down as Chairman of 
the Hakka Affairs Commission last March after having been a 
legislator from the Northern District of Taipei City.  Luo's 
opponent is Chou Hsi-wei, who has been a legislator 
representing Taipei County's First District since 1998.  A 
member of the People First Party (PFP) from 2000-2005, Chou 
returned to the KMT last April to compete as the KMT nominee 
for Taipei County Magistrate.  Although recently published 
public opinion polls show Chou with a substantial lead of 
seven to fifteen percentage points, there is a large number 
of undecided voters, and both the KMT and DPP expect a tight 
race.  While our contacts give a decided edge to Luo over 
Chou in campaign skills and personal charisma, the DPP 
corruption issue hurts Luo despite his own reputation as a 
reformer. 
 
5.  (C) Luo Wen-jia told the Acting Director on October 26 
that current internal polling by the DPP indicates that Chou 
Hsi-wei is running 3-4 percent ahead of him in voting 
preference, but that Luo is 3-4 percent more popular with the 
public than Chou.  Luo attributes this discrepancy to public 
dissatisfaction with the DPP central government over 
corruption and poor performance.  This factor has a 
particularly strong effect in Taipei County because of its 
proximity to the capital.  Luo said that his campaign 
strategy is to focus on his popularity and image as a 
reformer, his record, and his political message, which 
includes a call for reform by all parties, and that he hopes 
to have a chance to present his message in one or two 
televised debates with Chou.  Luo noted that 51 percent of 
respondents to a DPP internal poll believe he is a reformer, 
exceeding the 37 percent who regard the DPP as a reform 
party.  Luo believes that the swing voters in Taipei County 
support the Green side and his reform efforts and that a high 
voter turnout will help the DPP.  Swing voters are relatively 
apathetic, however, Luo said, so one goal is to mobilize this 
group to vote for him.  Luo is also counting on winning half 
of the Hakka vote, which traditionally goes to the KMT.   Luo 
said he was not sure whether the October 29 visit to Taipei 
County by the embattled President Chen would have a positive 
or negative effect on his campaign, and he noted that the 
strong rhetoric on cross-Strait issues that Chen used to 
mobilize his base did not appeal to swing voters in Taipei 
County.  (Note: During his October 29 campaign stop, 
President Chen apologized to the public for a major scandal 
and reversed his previous position by expressing support for 
Luo's reform initiative, the New DPP Movement, according to 
press reports.  End Note.) 
 
6.  (C) During a discussion with AIT on October 26, KMT 
Taipei County Deputy Chairman Chao Jung-sheng attributed Chou 
Hsi-wei's rise in the polls to the DPP corruption image, the 
"Ma Ying-jeou effect" (including frequent campaign visits by 
Ma), and the efforts of the KMT organization in arranging 
Chou's campaign schedule throughout the large and diverse 
county.  In the end, Chao predicted, the election will be a 
showdown between the Green and Blue forces.  Current polls 
showing Chou with a wide lead do not reflect how close the 
race will be, Chao stressed.  In Taipei County, base support 
for blue and green is about equal, but, according to Chao, 
swing voters shade to the blue, because they are opposed to 
the DPP's confrontational image and because intellectuals 
focus on the DPP poor governance record.  High voter turnout 
will help the Blue, Chao suggested.  Although being a 
mainlander is a disadvantage for Chou Hsi-wei, Luo Wen-jia 
may not be able to play the "ethnic card" (Taiwanese versus 
mainlander).  This is because Luo is from the Hakka minority 
rather than the majority southern Fukienese, who do not 
always get along with the Hakka. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (C) The Taipei County Magistrate race remains the most 
visible contest in this election.  It has also become a 
dramatic reminder of the waning fortunes of the scandal 
plagued DPP and the rise of Ma Ying-jeou's new-look KMT.  All 
observers acknowledge that Luo is a better candidate 
individually than Chou, but an increasing number expect that 
the negative image of the DPP and President Chen may lose 
this close race for the DPP. 
PAAL