US embassy cable - 02ABUJA3153

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 003153 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA:  PRELIMINARY TENTATIVE TIMETABLE FOR 
ELECTIONS 
 
 
REF: ABUJA 3139 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reasons 1.5 (B & 
D). 
 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
 
1.  (SBU)  To help Washington (and us) track events, we 
have developed the following electoral timetable based on 
the best information available at this point.  This 
tentative calendar provides schedules for political party 
activities and for holding of elections.  However, we have 
to add several important caveats.  INEC continues to lag 
behind in its preparations (reftel).  One of the issues 
still in gestation is the actual dates for holding the 
elections.    Additionally, many other issues remain to be 
resolved before a timetable is finalized.  This is the best 
current information but it is fluid and we expect many of 
these dates to change.  Dates to watch are: 
 
 
Nov. 21, 2002 - Supreme Court releases written decision on 
--          its ruling that INEC's registration guidelines 
--          were too stringent. 
 
 
Nov. 29, 2002 - Supreme Court decision on the 2002 
--          Electoral Bill (the court will decide on INEC's 
--          objection to the law's provision to hold all 
--          state and federal elections on the same day.) 
 
 
December, 2002 - INEC promises voters list by an 
--          unspecified date this month (or early January) 
 
 
Dec. 10 - Ruling PDP requires candidate nominations for 
--          local government elections and other party 
--          caucuses 
 
 
Dec. 21 - PDP requires candidate nominations for all other 
--          elections (except President) by this day 
 
 
Jan. 3-5, 2003 - PDP Presidential caucus scheduled 
 
 
Jan. 7 - ANPP Presidential caucus scheduled 
 
 
February - Local government elections possible during this 
--          month 
 
 
March - State (Gubernatorial and State Assembly) and 
--          National Assembly elections possible 
 
 
April - Presidential election possible (Depending on the 
--          outcome of INEC's lawsuit challenging the 2002 
--          electoral law, all state and federal elections 
--          may take place on the same day.  If the election 
--          is not held between March 29 and April 29, 
--          constitutional issues could be raised.) 
 
 
May 29 - Constitutionally mandated handover to newly- 
--          elected government 
 
 
END SUMMARY. 
 
 
ELECTIONS 
--------- 
 
 
2.  (C)  The Independent Nigerian Election Commission 
(INEC) and the largest political parties continue their 
preparations for the 2003 elections.  INEC is primarily 
focused on finding a way to salvage its problematic 
September voter registration exercise (reftel) and has not 
given sufficient attention to preparations for the actual 
conducting of elections or even to the preparation of a 
final electoral timetable.  Even though the National 
Assembly appropriated 27.8 billion Naira for INEC last 
week, there is no indication of when those funds will be 
released.  Further, by Guobadia's own estimate, INEC needs 
19.8 billion Naira to complete the registration process, 
leaving a balance of only 8 billion Naira (about $61 
million, or $1 per voter) for an expected four separate 
elections.  Still, INEC Chairman Dr. Abel Guobadia 
commented last week that the voters list is expected by 
"early December" and predicted Local Government Authority 
elections in February.  He refused to provide more detail 
to the reporter, but said that Presidential elections will 
hold "in April."  In large part, the timetable will depend 
on the outcome of the Supreme Court hearing on the 2002 
Electoral Bill.  A decision on that is expected on November 
29, 2002. 
 
 
3.  (SBU)  Working back from the May 29, 2003 deadline for 
handing over to a newly-elected government, the following 
two scenarios emerge.  The first timetable assumes 
staggered elections (INEC's preference). 
 
 
Scenario I 
---------- 
--  early-December - Voters list issued for public scrutiny 
--  early-January - Final voters list available 
--  early-March - Local Government Authority elections held 
--  mid-March - State elections held 
--  early April - Federal elections held 
--  mid-April - Presidential elections held. 
 
 
This timeline leaves little room for error and flexibility 
is limited by the current lack of planning and the 
constitutionally-mandated handover date. 
 
 
Scenario II 
----------- 
 
 
4.  (SBU) If elections are held under the new 2002 
Electoral law, the latest dates possible are: 
 
 
--  mid-January - Voters list issued for public scrutiny 
--  mid-February - Final voters list available 
--  mid-April - Local Government Authority elections held 
--  late-April - State, Federal, and Presidential elections 
held. 
 
 
The 2002 Electoral Act allows for compressing the elections 
schedule within constitutional limits.  However, the 
Presidency and State Governors are opposed to holding 
elections on the same day, believing that it would diminish 
the coattail effect of their hoped-for election victories 
on national and state assembly elections.  The National 
Assembly, on the other hand, favors a single-day poll. 
During a meeting with the President on November 20 
(septel), he again repeated his belief that Presidential, 
State and National Assembly elections on the same day were 
"impossible." 
 
 
PARTY CAUCUSES 
-------------- 
 
 
5.  (SBU)  Among the parties currently registered, only the 
ruling PDP has announced a relatively complete timeline for 
holding its party caucuses.  The results of the PDP's ward- 
level caucus are to be submitted by November 23, 2002.  The 
vast majority of ward congresses were conducted in July, so 
the November 23 deadline may not pose a major hurdle.  The 
joker in the deck is possible court challenges, as many of 
the caucuses were disrupted or called into question because 
of alleged rigging or intimidation.  (PDP ward congresses 
select candidates for LGA offices and nominate ten 
delegates to the state caucus.) 
 
 
6.  (U)  By Dec. 10, the LGA caucus should select state 
assembly candidates, three delegates to the State party 
congress and one delegate to the National congress.  The 
State congresses have been instructed by the PDP's party 
headquarters to select candidates for the "Federal 
Constituency" by Dec. 17, Senatorial candidates by Dec. 21, 
and its Presidential aspirant by Jan 3 - 5 (a national 
convention?). 
 
 
7.  (SBU)  The All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP) is split 
into at least two factions and is embroiled in lawsuits 
over the authority of the various factions.  Like the PDP, 
most of the ward-level work was completed months ago but 
the steps leading up to its Presidential congress have not 
been announced.  Regardless of the ANPP's decision, the 
party will strive to delay major decisions until after the 
PDP party congress has announced a Presidential ticket. 
ANPP officials have told us they will seek to nominate the 
candidate judged most likely to defeat the PDP standard 
bearer.  At a party convention held in Enugu November 16-17 
by one faction, the party's name was officially changed to 
ANPP from All People's Party (APP) and January 7 was set as 
the date for selecting a presidential candidate.  The other 
faction is contesting the change and the date. 
 
 
8.  (SBU)  The Alliance for Democracy (AD) also held ward 
congresses, but has been modifying some of the decisions 
taken months ago.  It has not advanced very far in planning 
its primaries for State, Federal and Presidential 
elections.  The three new parties, UNPP, ANGA, and the NDP 
have not announced timelines.  The AD is primarily a 
regional party, and the other three are untested vehicles 
for electoral competition.  None has a presidential 
candidate of national stature at this time. 
 
 
9.  (C) COMMENT:  Timelines are not fixed and most dates 
are subject to change.  The only date which is fixed is the 
May 29 inauguration of a new civilian government.  With six 
months left, the PDP and the ANPP are currently the only 
two parties with discernible national structures and with 
probable presidential candidates who have the stature and 
exposure to be a factor in the 2003 elections.  However, we 
cannot count the other parties out.  As the politicking 
unfolds, there will be carpet-crossing and defections. 
 
 
10.  (C)  COMMENT CONTINUED:  The lack of definite 
schedules by the political parties is one thing, the torpor 
of INEC is quite another.  INEC is the key to a successful 
electoral process, and the chances of that will be enhanced 
the sooner INEC can promulgate a definitive schedule and 
show that it is working towards implementing it.  Already, 
we are hearing murmurs among some politicians that they 
expect elections to be postponed beyond the constitutional 
limit, an action which would be highly controversial.  The 
electoral schedule is another issue that the Mission, 
independently and within the context of the "Friends" 
group, will be taking up with INEC. 
 
 
JETER