US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1875

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001875 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PTER, CE, Elections 
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION VIEW FROM THE SRI LANKAN FRONT LINE: 
VAVUNIYA AND MINNERIYA 
 
 
Classified By: DCM James F. Entwistle.  Reason: 1.4 (B,D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C/NF) During a mid-October trip to the Sri Lankan Army 
(SLA) Headquarters near the front lines, interlocutors from 
Vavuniya said the situation there and at the Omanthai 
Entry/Exit Point demarcating Tiger-controlled territory was 
relatively calm, but expressed concern at continued ceasefire 
violations.  Interlocutors in the East said there has been an 
increase in Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) activity. 
 In both locations, it was predicted that LTTE activity, both 
military and propaganda, would increase prior to the upcoming 
November 17 presidential election. Interlocutors from the SLA 
continued to express frustration at their inability to react 
to Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) violations by the LTTE, in the 
perceived absence of a response from the Sri Lankan Monitoring 
Mission (SLMM). In Vavuniya, local officials are working with 
the SLA to ensure that access to the polling stations from 
uncleared (i.e. LTTE-controlled) areas is streamlined. The 
LTTE's reaction to the presidential campaign, whether they 
will support one candidate over another, or try to impede 
voters in the uncleared areas from voting remains a mystery. 
END SUMMARY 
 
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CFA:  ADVANTAGE LTTE? 
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2. (C/NF) On October 18 the DCM, accompanied by CAO, DATT, 
SAO, and RSO visited Vavuniya and met with military and civil 
officials.   The SLA in Vavuniya oversees 163 kilometers of 
the Forward Defensive Line (FDL) from Vankulai in the west to 
Kokkuthduuai in the east.  The AOR is home to more than 1.67 
million Sri Lankans and has a majority 73% Sinhalese 
population, with Tamils representing 13% and Muslims another 
13%.  The Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) opened the Omanthai 
Entry/Exit Point in Vavuniya and has resulted in greater 
prosperity in the region and increased traffic, as the 
checkpoint is the primary crossing point between cleared 
south and uncleared north areas.  The CFA also brought, 
according to Major General Paarami S.B. Kulatunge, Commander 
of Sri Lanka Forces at Vavuniya, an increase in LTTE 
propaganda and infiltration into the Vavuniya area south of 
the Entry/Exit point. The LTTE has six political offices in 
the cleared areas of Vavuniya.  Kulatunge commented that 
there is little enforcement of the CFA by the SLMM, 
complaining that the SLA can report violations to the SLMM 
but do nothing else. 
 
3. (C/NF) Major General Kulatunge painted a dire portrait of 
the military situation on the ground in the area under his 
command in the event of all out war.  He reported that the 
LTTE across the FDL has the advantage of knowing where army 
fixed positions are located. According to Kulatunge, the 
Tigers can wreak significant damage if they ever decide to 
break the CFA because the LTTE has gathered intelligence on 
SLA FDL strong points and LTTE equipment can jam SLA radios. 
While acknowledging CFA violations such as intimidation of 
Tamil and Muslim businesses in the cleared area, the use of 
radio communication, and occasional abductions and political 
assassinations, Kulatunge nonetheless views Vavuniya as 
relatively violence-free compared with other areas in the 
north and east. In the past six months, there have been 9 
killed, 2 injured and 57 abducted by the LTTE.  SLA 
interlocutors stressed that they do not foresee the Tigers 
attempting to provoke military hostilities in Vavuniya 
primarily because the CFA - and the taxes the Tigers can 
collect on travelers crossing the checkpoint - are good 
business.  For the first three quarters of 2005, the LTTE tax 
revenue from the Omanthai checkpoint was 1.627 billion rupees 
(approx. $16,300,000 USD), representing a substantial 
increase from the 1.246 billion rupees (approx. $12,400,000 
USD) that was collected over the entire 2004 calendar year. 
 
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AGA SEES LTTE LASSITUDE 
THIS ELECTION BUT SLA READY FOR "UNCLEARED" VOTERS 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
4. (C) DCM and delegation also met with Vavuniya Additional 
Government Agent (AGA), P.S.M. Charles.  Charles said that 
Vavuniya has experienced increasing prosperity since the CFA 
due to a booming trade between cleared and uncleared areas 
and the investment of many newly returned Sri Lankans who 
fled the country during the height of the war.  Unlike 
Kulatunge, Charles did not focus on the CFA violations in the 
cleared area of Vavuniya. 
 
5. (C) Charles said she did not know how the upcoming 
presidential election will play out in the area.  She 
predicted, however, that the November 17 polls would not 
attract as many voters from the uncleared areas as the April 
2004 general election did because the LTTE felt it had a 
greater stake in the outcome then and thus encouraged 
participation from the uncleared area.  Neither candidate in 
the upcoming presidential election will elicit the same 
support by the LTTE, she speculated. 
 
6.  (C/NF) Contrary to what the AGA said, the SLA Commander 
at Omanthai said they are they are preparing for 50,000 
voters to cross from LTTE-controlled territory for the 
presidential election - up from 30,000 in the 2004 general 
election.  (On average, approximately 10,000 people and 2,000 
- 3,000 vehicles cross the Entry/Exit point on a working 
day.) He reported that his troops at the checkpoint would 
facilitate quick crossing to the polling stations, which are 
to be set up one kilometer inside the cleared area.  An 
additional perimeter will be added after the polling station, 
where those traveling to the cleared area for reasons other 
than to vote will be subject to additional security checks. 
 
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ALL NOT SO QUIET 
ON THE EASTERN FRONT 
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7. (C/NF) Major General T.T.R. De Silva, Commander of 
Security Forces (East), and Brigadier Rohan M. Jayasinghe, 
Brigadier General Staff (formerly Defense Attach at Sri 
Lankan Embassy in Washington, DC) met the delegation at the 
Security Forces Headquarters (East) in Minneriya in 
Polonnaruwa district later the same day.  De Silva told the 
delegation that the Karuna faction has been very active in 
the east (Polonnaruwa borders Batticaloa District), 
estimating that there are between 200-300 combatants in the 
area.  The LTTE has repeatedly sent cadres to attack the 
Karuna faction and harass the SLA, in an effort to show a 
relationship between Karuna's forces and the SLA, De Silva 
asserted.  He told the delegation that recently the SLA 
spotted 35 Karuna cadres in the area and shortly thereafter 
spotted a large number of LTTE (Wanni) cadres that appeared 
to be tracking the Karuna cadres.  The violation of the CFA 
was reported to the SLMM, but no action was taken.  Between 
April 2004 and October 2005, the Karuna faction has killed 
107 LTTE (Wanni) cadres and the LTTE has killed 48 Karuna 
cadres in the East.  Three-fourths of the killings occurred 
in LTTE-controlled areas.  Since the CFA was signed in 2002, 
the LTTE has committed approximately 159 murders, 190 
attempted murders, and 326 abductions in the East; however 
the exact figures are unknown since many attacks go unreported. 
 
8. (C/NF) De Silva and Jayasinghe predicted that prior to the 
upcoming presidential election, there would be a surge in 
LTTE activity, including forced recruitment, military 
training of civilians, and attacks on small military and 
police posts.  The SLA also believes that in preparation for 
the upcoming change in government, the LTTE is strengthening 
its political presence by relocating LTTE sympathizers into 
unoccupied land around the main roads in Trincomalee and by 
promoting cultural propaganda like the "Tamil Nation 
Resurgence" movement. 
 
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COMMENT 
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9.  (C/NF) In the 2001 general election some members of the 
military were accused of preventing voters from LTTE-controlled 
territory entering cleared areas to vote.  It is reassuring to 
hear that the SLA is prepared to help ensure trouble-free 
voting for citizens crossing from LTTE-controlled territory 
to cast their ballots in this election, but a lot obviously 
depends on the Tigers themselves.  We have heard (as AGA 
Charles suggested) the LTTE is not as interested in the 
outcome of this election compared to a parliamentary election. 
Our sense is that the LTTE is watching the campaign closely 
and that its leadership feels it has a critical stake in the 
result.  How that influences Tiger behavior-whether it elicits 
a get-out-the-vote effort to support a particular candidate, 
as in the 2004 general election, or violent attacks aimed at 
eliminating a particular candidate, as in the last two 
presidential polls, remains the great unknown. 
 
10. (C/NF) The familiar SLA refrain about the SLMM's 
"inability" to respond to CFA violations reflects a lack of 
understanding (willful or otherwise) that the SLMM's mandate 
is monitoring and reporting, nothing more.  But, it also 
reflects the fact that the CFA was expected to last 3 - 6 
months as a final peace deal was put in place.  Instead it 
has remained in effect for three years - probably a record 
anywhere for CFA maintenance in the absence of a viable peace 
process. END COMMENT 
LUNSTEAD