US embassy cable - 05ABUJA2079

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002079 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY'S ILLEGAL ACTIONS CAUSE CONFUSION AND 
VIOLENCE 
 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reason 1.4 (b) 
and (d) 
 
1.   (U)   SUMMARY:  The crisis within the ruling People's 
Democratic Party (PDP) widened  after its leadership ignored 
an Abuja High Court order and organized non-elective 
congresses on October 15, which excluded non-Obasanjo 
loyalists and their supporters. The  congresses were 
characterized by confusion and violence and raised the 
political temperature in Nigeria as PDP rivals play out their 
winner take all contest for the control of the party.  END 
SUMMARY 
 
 2.   (C)   The current problem plaguing the ruling party is 
the continuation of the power struggle between President 
Olusegun Obasanjo and Vice President Atiku Abubakar for 
control of the PDP's party machinery. As the pre-election 
competition for the 2007 presidential election heats up, 
Abubakar has declared his candidacy, and apparently President 
Obasanjo privately opposes it. Although he currently is 
constitutionally ineligible to remain in office, President 
Obasanjo continues to act as if he is an incumbent candidate, 
leading to rampant speculation about the possibility of a 
third term. 
 
3.    (C)   In addition, over the last two years President 
Obasanjo has methodically inserted his allies in key PDP 
executive positions, often contravening the party's 
constitution. In an earlier move to winnow out supporters of 
the Vice President, the party's executive decreed that all 
party members must re-register, in effect dissolving the 
current PDP. When the Vice President and his local supporters 
went to register in his home ward, they were all denied 
registration. According to an Obasanjo activist, working for 
the "Abacha 2 Project," as he described it, the PDP members 
in the district decided among themselves to disallow Atiku's 
registration.  One week later Abubakar was allowed to 
register, but in his office, leaving the issue of 
registration of his local supporters unresolved. 
 
4.   (U)    The latest controversy stems from the party 
leaders' decision to ignore an Abuja High Court ruling that 
mandated that the party must abide by its own constitution 
and hold elective congresses. According to the PDP's 
constitution, all congresses should freely elect office 
holders from party members. The PDP national executive, 
itself not empowered according to the party's constitution, 
directed that local party members, rather than voting for 
representatives of their choice, could only affirm 
pre-determined lists of candidates from the Abuja 
headquarters. 
 
5.    (U)   PDP party members challenged this directive, 
saying it violated party rules. The Abuja High Court agreed 
and concluded that..."Going ahead with the non-elective 
congresses and convention will bring about anarchy and cause 
a breach of peace among its leaders. Party leaders should 
lead by example." 
 
 
6.   (U)   Leadership of the PDP appealed the court order. 
But before the appeal could be heard, the party leadership 
organized non-elective congresses around the country in which 
the winners were all Obasanjo loyalists. The illegal move 
extended control of the president's faction to the local 
level. 
 
 
7.  (U)  The resulting confusion and violence varied from 
state to state. Parallel congresses were held in Kwara, Edo, 
Adamawa and Oyo states, in which two slates of party office 
holders were elected, one loyal to Obasanjo, one not. 
Violence was reported in many states, including Ogun, Oyo, 
Delta and Rivers where at least 20 people died during the 
selections.  Journalists were prevented from observing the 
process in Nassarawa State and the congresses were canceled 
in Bayelsa State. Several days later in Abuja, 100 busloads 
of women (about one thousand protesters) from Plateau and 
Nassarawa attempted to register their dissatisfaction at PDP 
national party headquarters.  The police prevented the 
protest, though, and "deported" the women back to the state 
line. 
 
8.    (U)   Ignoring the court order, a PDP party spokesmen 
denied that the congresses were rigged or illegal. President 
Obasanjo denied the congresses were fraudulent and challenged 
disgruntled party members to quit. This high stakes ultimatum 
leaves the President's rivals within the party little choice 
but to fight back, or leave the party they created. 
 
9.   (C)    COMMENT:  These events are the latest round in a 
high stakes game of political elimination in which President 
Obasanjo's faction of the PDP has demonstrated its 
willingness to use whatever means necessary, including 
violence and ignoring court rulings, in an effort to control 
the party and to exclude those it deems disloyal to the 
President's wishes. Thus, the blatant disregard for the rule 
of law in organizing and conducting the PDP's internal party 
congresses has set the precedent of confusion and violence 
for the other parties. If President Obasanjo and the PDP's 
leadership continues employing the same tactics, violence is 
almost certain to escalate. One possible consequence of this 
"scorched earth" policy is the continuing erosion of 
confidence in the political process as the Presidential 
faction of the ruling party willingly violates the law in 
order to implement President Obasonjo's will in 2007. 
CAMPBELL