US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4451

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BAGHDAD 004451 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, NEA/PPD, NEA/PPA, NEA/AGS, INR/IZ, INR/P 
 
E.0. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, IZ, Media, Sunni Arab, Elections, Reconstruction 
SUBJECT: DAILY IRAQI WEBSITE MONITORING - October 30, 2005 
 
SUMMARY: Discussions of Iraq under `U.S. occupation,' 
December elections, and Sunni political participation were 
the major editorial themes of Iraqi, Arabic language 
websites on October 30, 2005. END SUMMARY. 
 
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TABLE OF CONTENTS 
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A.   "Sanctions on Iraq" (Iraq 4 All News, 10/30) 
B. "Iraq's Political Scene between U.S. Interests and 
Upcoming Elections" (Kitabat, 10/30) 
C. "The Election Battle after the Constitution" (Independent 
Iraqi News Agency, 10/30) 
D. "A Stand with Iraq's Next Stage" (Al-Nahrain, 10/30) 
 
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SELECTED COMMENTARIES 
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A. "Sanctions on Iraq" 
(Editorial by Fatih Abdul Salam - Iraq 4 All News - 
http://iraq4all.org/viewnews.php?id=10512 - Independent, 
based in Denmark) 
 
"Iraq remained under sanctions imposed on its political 
leadership for over thirteen years. These sanctions 
inflicted harm on people, but not only did they spare the 
ruling regime, they were also a means for vicious enrichment 
in a way that was never thought possible. Today, Iraq is not 
far from U.S. sanctions. Everything follows the rules of 
U.S. occupation forces, who control the country; no 
security, economic, or political agendas can be implemented 
without gaining the American green light, so as to avoid any 
conflict what-so-ever with their overwhelming 161,000 troops 
who are not willing to take any risks or jeopardize their 
security. 
 
"Every Iraqi politician is surrounded by the American vision 
that seldom incorporates Iraqi interests. The American 
vision restricts the politician's vision; he needs to be 
extremely careful with his political vocabulary so as not to 
find himself accused of violating the principles of 
democracy and reform, especially with the presence of U.S. 
followers who support the American agenda in a subordinate 
and humiliating manner. It is not much different for 
ordinary Iraqis, who are governed in their daily lives by 
U.S. military patrols that set ever-changing routes which 
Iraqis must follow from home to work and any other location. 
And if one fails to follow these routes, Iraqis' lives might 
be the price. 
 
"In such an environment, a true democracy-or even a semi- 
successful democracy-can never be built because democracy is 
not an ethnic, sectarian, or doctrine-based impulse. A 
reform in mentality should be the basis for democratic 
practice, which should include traditional mechanisms that 
begin with nominations and end with voting. 
 
"The truth is that we are still under sanctions, not only 
from U.S. tanks, but from the narrow views they have brought 
along; they repeatedly overlooked violations committed 
against democracy, and this has made any other view nothing 
more than a solo tune with no hope of being heard." 
 
B. "Iraq's Political Scene between U.S. Interests and 
Upcoming Elections" 
(Editorial by Kadhum Al-Bedairi - Kitabat - "Writings" - 
http://www.kitabat.com/i9543.htm - Independent, based in 
Germany) 
 
"Who can speculate about the results of the next election? 
Will the same alliances retain their memberships with the 
same number of seats? In fact, the next parliament whets the 
appetite for participation because it will be a parliament 
with a four-year term and its first task will be to review 
the constitution. This means that the alliances with larger 
shares of seats will be more effective negotiating parties 
regardless of negative or positive participation. In 
addition to the constitutional review, there are other 
issues, including occupation, proposed bases, and other 
critical topics related to oil and regional affairs. 
 
"Some researchers have indicated that foreign parties and 
agendas have established presences on the Iraqi scene and 
have been conducting activities for a long time now. 
Everyone is gambling on what the future holds and everyone 
is playing the role of the fortune teller in speculating 
what the Iraqi political chart might look like after a 
possible shuffle of cards. 
 
"Among all of this we find America's presence in all the 
vital details of the process. All deals are made under the 
table and behind the scenes in complete silence-without any 
clear indication of who will be Iraq's next knight. Allawi? 
Chalabi? Will it be another face trained to be Iraq's 
Karzai!!? And what a surprise it would be if this new 
character were a cleric in a traditional outfit. Everything 
is possible in Iraq today. 
 
"The problem of which everyone here is aware is that 
President Bush only has thirty-nine months left in office 
with no hope until now of solving some of the problems that 
have placed him in an unenviable position. These problems, 
which signal an early start for what is known as `the second 
term curse' have placed President Bush in a situation where 
he attempts to present Americans with any shred of hope that 
might provide him with an exit from his crisis, which 
includes the mounting death and financial tolls of the war 
in Iraq. 
 
"The Iraqi election only presents American policy with 
another obstacle. U.S. policy has classified the Iraq issue 
as a top priority for the White House; it is unreasonable to 
believe that the hundreds of billions of dollars spent and 
over 2,000 troops killed and 17,000 wounded were all 
sacrificed by the U.S. for the sake of Al-Ja'fari or Al- 
Hakim, who know this fact only too well. As for whom the 
next Ja'fari will be, this is still being cooked on calm a 
fire." 
 
C. "The Election Battle after the Constitution" 
(Editorial by Ja'far Mohammed Ahmed - Independent Iraqi News 
Agency - http://www.normal.iraq- 
ina.com/showarticles.php?id=1535 ) 
 
"The announcement that three major Sunni Arab committees in 
Iraq-the Islamic Party, the National Dialogue Council, and 
the Iraq People's Conference-will form a new alliance to 
participate in the December 15th election emphasizes Sunni 
persistence to participate in the political process. They 
see it is a legal and national necessity through which they 
can convey their opinions about what is going on in Iraq 
under American occupation. 
 
"The new alliance of Sunni Arabs, under the name `Iraqi 
Consensus Front,' is a bold step considering their loss in 
the referendum battle, which ended in the constitution's 
ratification.The new alliance may also help Sunni Arabs in 
negotiations over constitutional changes, according to an 
agreement achieved by American diplomats days before the 
constitutional referendum. 
 
"The Iraqi Consensus Front's announcement that the door is 
open for any political entity or bloc that wants to join the 
alliance signifies a call to broaden participation in the 
election-and to disregard calls to boycott. It is also an 
attempt to gather the Iraqi masses, and all its factions, 
under one political bloc in order to achieve a positive 
result and to benefit from the mistakes of the lost 
referendum battle. 
 
"Sunni Arabs are confronting a new test. Their masses should 
be unified from now until the parliamentary election. They 
should benefit from the lessons of the referendum and the 
last boycott because ballot boxes are the best way to 
express opinions. The new direction is required in order to 
establish a strong electoral program that places the 
country's interests above everything and gives priority to 
driving the occupation out of Iraq, which would win great 
popular support in the election. This would be a positive 
result, enabling [Sunnis] to influence events in Iraq and 
put an end to ethnic and sectarian conflicts. Will Sunni 
Arabs win in the upcoming election battle? Or will the 
referendum scenario be repeated?" 
 
D. "A Stand with Iraq's Next Stage" 
(Editorial by Youssif Fadhil - Al-Nahrain - "The Two Rivers" 
- http://www.nahrain.com/d/news/05/10/30/nhr103 0g.html ) 
 
"What does Iraq expect after ratifying the constitution? The 
answer to this question requires that one is aware of 
several issues linked to previous events and current events. 
Constitutional ratification was considered a major 
achievement in the Iraqi political process. Ratification 
would have been [an achievement] if the constitution was 
passed in an acceptable manner. But its current status is 
suspicious due to how the process was promoted-specifically, 
America's concern in the subject and the way it was treated 
as a necessity that could not be delayed. 
 
"There are debts from which Iraq is suffering that exceed 
$100 billion; they will not be written off unless Iraq wins 
a certificate of good behavior from the World Bank and the 
blessings of the main countries running the political 
process in Iraq.May we have the right to ask about these 
dues? Iraq is living in a state of security, economic, 
institutional, agricultural, cultural and environmental 
disappointment. Iraq is near disaster. It is enough to watch 
on satellite channels the painful scenes of terror that 
cause goose bumps because of their dreadfulness. It is 
enough to hear about administrative and financial 
corruption, not to mention the country's institutes, which 
are more like coffee shops than places of work-to go to work 
or not show up is all the same. 
 
"The consecutive Iraqi governments have not had the 
authority to make decisions unless the coalition 
approves...To tell the people the truth and deal with 
situations as they are will win the government respect, 
enabling it to bypass difficulties and gain benefits for 
Iraq from the occupying country. Lying to people will weaken 
the government's stance in negotiations with occupation 
forces. 
 
"There is a probability that the U.S. will create military 
alliances with the upcoming Iraqi government under the 
pretext of fighting terror. This might be acceptable to the 
Iraqi government because of the difficult security situation 
in Iraq. But such alliances would create sensitivity issues 
with neighboring countries. Haste in accepting or refusing 
such offers might not serve the Iraqi people as much as it 
might serve the interests of other countries. 
 
"A country occupying Iraq will focus on developing crude oil 
production. That might correspond with Iraq's economic 
interests. Multi-national oil companies will invest and 
develop, but not necessarily in order to benefit Iraqi 
interests! Yes, Iraq is living through an economic crisis 
and it needs money and investments. Investments would push 
the country's economy and move it away from economic 
recession. Thus, gradual and regular investment is better 
than getting `quick' money that cannot be used in the best 
way and, instead, may wind up being wasted or stolen or 
allocated to illusory projects. 
 
"Iraq will be pushed to borrow and find loans from financial 
institutes such as the World Bank. That may result in Iraq 
losing its ability to make independent political decisions. 
Iraq and its people will become hostages to working off 
debts. Many problems will be created among the central, 
regional and provincial governments. And many of these 
problems may seem normal because Iraq has had no practical 
experience. 
 
"We should be careful about organizing trade and 
privatization. Iraq is underdeveloped economically, 
administratively and culturally. Iraq needs a lot of time to 
digest what has happened in the world. During this time, the 
Iraqi economy should be protected from industrial goods and 
agricultural products. We need a well-thought-out government 
project that would aim to let the Iraqi industrial and 
agricultural sectors flourish. The issue of Iraq joining the 
WTO should not be considered by any Iraqi government in the 
near future because of the abnormal conditions Iraq is 
presently facing. These are some ideas which I hope 
political powers will study and which I hope will motivate 
those powers to be cautious during their upcoming political 
work ahead of the election." 
 
SATTERFIELD