US embassy cable - 05CALGARY643

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CALGARY 000643 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAN, EB/ESC/ISC, EB/PPD 
 
USDOE FOR IA (DEVITO, PUMPHREY, DEUTSCH) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EMIN, ENRG, ETRD, PARM, CH, CA, Energy 
SUBJECT: URANIUM: THE REVIVAL OF ENERGY'S  "OTHER WHITE MEAT" 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. The international media buzz generated by Alberta's booming 
oil and gas industries has overshadowed a revival of interest in 
western Canada's uranium resources.  Seemingly destined to be 
the "other white meat" of Canada's energy industry, uranium's 
fortunes had been in decline for a quarter-century before spot 
prices surged earlier this decade. From an all-time low of US$7 
per pound in 2001, uranium nearly quadrupled in value over the 
next two years, before reaching its current 15-year high of 
US$33. Canada, with the second largest uranium reserves on the 
planet, is responsible for nearly a third of world output; this 
proportion is expected to climb to half by 2015. The province of 
Saskatchewan is home to all of Canada's mines, as well as the 
world's largest uranium producer, Saskatoon-based Cameco 
Corporation (uranium produced in Saskatchewan generates 
electricity for 1 in 9 American households).  With reserves of 
almost 450 million pounds, McArthur River is the world's largest 
mine producing nearly 18 million pounds of uranium yearly.  The 
future looks bright for the western province governed by a 
socialist New Democratic Party that has struggled over the years 
with the social implications associated with developing a sector 
that continues to garner a strong "not in my backyard" response. 
 With uranium revenues (C$40-50 million is earned by the 
Government of Saskatchewan yearly from uranium royalties and 
industry taxes), and therefore royalties, the provincial coffer 
is almost guaranteed to climb as emerging nations develop 
peaceful nuclear power capabilities.  Cameco has also been 
dismantling nuclear warheads in the former Soviet Union since 
1999.  End summary. 
 
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RADIOACTIVE, AND PROUD OF IT 
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2. Saskatchewan has long been a world leader in uranium 
production. Mining in the Athabasca region of northern 
Saskatchewan has been around almost as long as the uranium 
industry itself, and has been an important component of the 
West's nuclear power program from the Manhattan Project on. The 
province currently produces about 32% of the world's total, and 
numerous development projects are underway to increase this 
proportion to over half by 2015. At current rates of 
consumption, Saskatchewan has enough economically viable 
reserves to last 25 years, and with US$30 million in ongoing 
exploration projects, the province has the potential to continue 
as the uranium capital of the world for much of the century. 
Saskatchewan has derived many benefits from hosting the uranium 
industry, not the least of which is the C$256 million in goods 
and services those companies purchase every year. Uranium mining 
has been a godsend to northern Saskatchewan, where it is the 
largest private sector employer. 
 
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THE RISE OF THE YELLOW BLACK GOLD 
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3. While the rationality of market swings in volatile 
commodities is difficult to determine, several factors seem to 
have contributed to the rapid rise in the price of uranium after 
2001. Perhaps most prominent was the Russian warning early that 
year that they might discontinue exports of the highly enriched 
uranium (HEU) they acquired after the dismantling of their 
nuclear warheads. Nuclear power facilities, accustomed to 
relying on such secondary production sources for their fuel 
needs, were forced to take a hard look at the lack of primary 
production around the world. The program continued, but damage 
had already been done. 
 
4. Further aggravating the production deficit, Saskatchewan's 
McArthur River mine, responsible for one-fifth of the world's 
production, was faced with a water inflow problem that 
effectively shut it down for several months. With prices falling 
and several mines worldwide announcing plans to decrease 
production, former Cameco CEO Bernard Michel predicted that 
world production of uranium would meet only 40% of world demand 
by 2010, down from 60% in 2001. A smaller factor, but emblematic 
of the downward trend of the uranium industry, was the news that 
British Nuclear Fuels, an important player in the uranium 
hexafluoride (UF6) manufacturing and shipping industry, was 
phasing out its Springfield, England plant. 
 
5. While these factors had a negligible impact on production for 
an industry that defines "short-term projects" as lasting more 
than ten years, they inserted a new logic into the uranium 
market. Previously, uranium consumers knew they could rely on 
commercial stockpiles to make up the difference between 
consumption and production. However, with the continued decline 
in primary production and a 19-year drain in stockpiles, nuclear 
power facilities worldwide clamored to buy up available 
supplies. The resulting price increase has fueled a 21st century 
uranium rush in Saskatchewan, the western province traditionally 
known for its wheat, open prairies, and unspellable name. 
 
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HOMEGROWN COMPANY MAKES IT BIG 
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6. If Saskatchewan is the uranium capital of the world, then 
Cameco Corporation is its king. The company is the largest 
uranium producer in the world, accounting for one-fifth of 
existing production, and more than two-thirds of identified 
future capacity. Cameco has a controlling interest in two of 
Saskatchewan's five mines, plus a 50% stake in the lucrative 
Cigar Lake development, which is expected to be operational by 
2007. Cameco and AREVA (a subsidiary of Government of 
France-owned COGEMA), together produce over 90% of 
Saskatchewan's uranium. The world's most productive mine, 
McArthur Lake, is 69% Cameco-owned. With an ore grade 100 times 
that of the world average for uranium mines, McArthur has been 
the company's cash cow since it opened in 1999. It is the 
world's largest high-grade uranium mine with reserves of almost 
450 million pounds.  It allows Cameco to produce almost 18 
million pounds of uranium yearly.  Uranium is considered 
economical to mine if the concentration is in excess of 0.1%; 
McArthur Lake has an average concentration of 24.7% U3O8 
(uranium oxide, commonly known as yellowcake). Cameco is also 
the world's sole commercial supplier of UO2, the fuel used in 
Canadian-designed CANDU reactors. Uranium produced by Cameco 
generates electricity for 1 in 9 American households. 
Altogether, Canada exports 5 million kilograms of uranium to the 
United States every year, supplying 6.5% of American electricity 
consumption. 
 
7. Cameco has weathered a succession of threats to its viability 
in recent years, starting with the catastrophic drop in 
uranium's spot price during the late 1990s.  At the time, Cameco 
was also faced with a PR nightmare, after a chemical spill at 
its facilities in Kyrgyzstan prompted a public outcry and 
government inquiry. More recently, the company's failure to 
acquire a stake in an enrichment facility in southern Texas 
disappointed investors.  Cameco has made several attempts to 
provide enrichment services; the Bruce Power reactors in Port 
Hope, Ontario are scheduled to soon begin using slightly 
enriched uranium (SEU), which Cameco hopes to supply. Cameco had 
planned to develop enrichment facilities in Port Hope itself as 
recently as September, until public concerns and technical 
issues put the project on hold indefinitely. Cameco has since 
made public its bid to acquire Zircatec Precision Industries 
(also located in Port Hope), a reactor fuel fabrication company. 
If the proposal comes to fruition, Cameco will buy SEU from one 
of three undisclosed US sources, which Zircatec can convert into 
a useable form for the Bruce reactors. 
 
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HUNGRY DRAGON DISCOVERS "THE WHEAT PROVINCE" 
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8. Uranium is increasingly an important revenue source for 
Saskatchewan. The C$40-C$50 million sent to Regina every year 
from uranium royalties and industry taxes may comprise less than 
one percent of total government revenues, but it has enabled 
significant debt reduction in a province that was on the verge 
of bankruptcy just 12 years ago. Royalties are expected to 
increase substantially over the next five years, as industry 
leaders such as Cameco develop new long-term contracts based on 
higher spot prices.  In the meantime, the provincial government 
is aggressively courting uranium mining interests. Chinese 
nuclear power facilities in particular have expressed interest 
in acquiring a stake in Saskatchewan uranium. Premier Calvert 
recently returned from high-level talks with China National 
Petroleum Corporation, attracting attention to the increasingly 
close relationship between Chinese business and the provincial 
government. Business-to-business ties have also increased; 
several Chinese investors have visited Cameco's headquarters in 
Saskatoon, where they indicated a preference for Saskatchewan's 
high-yield mines over less rich facilities in Australia. 
 
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THE AGE OF THE ATOM, AGAIN? 
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9. After a 30 year hiatus, nuclear power appears to be making a 
comeback, as evidenced by new reactors planned in Asia and even 
polls in the U.S. showing 60% of Americans support an increase 
in the use of nuclear power.  While the NIMBY (not in my 
backyard) effect is as strong as ever, Saskatchewan provincial 
officials, along with Cameco, have set their sights on 
accommodating President Bush's support in his 2005 New Energy 
Policy Act to build new nuclear power plants by the end of the 
decade. However, Saskatchewan and Cameco have had their efforts 
to receive similar recognition from Ottawa fail, partly because 
of a strong anti-nuclear lobby. Former Saskatchewan NDP deputy 
premier Dwain Lingenfelter, now an executive of Calgary-based 
Nexen Inc., has spearheaded support for new nuclear power 
facilities, campaigning to convince Saskatchewanians that a 
plant in the northwestern part of the province would be a huge 
economic opportunity. The construction rush on the Alberta 
oilsands has raised speculation that nuclear power could fuel 
new bitumen processing; nearly one third of the energy reaped 
from mining the oilsands must be used merely to pump it out of 
the ground. Initially, nuclear's proponents believed the Kyoto 
Protocol, which commits Canada to reducing its greenhouse 
emissions by 6%, would help their cause; however, Ottawa's plan 
for fulfilling the agreement has no mention of nuclear power, 
instead focusing on "clean fuels" such as natural gas, solar, 
and wind power. The uranium industry would like to see the 
reduction in greenhouse emissions resulting from use of 
Saskatchewan's U3O8 counted into Canada's total. Use of Canadian 
uranium in the United States alone avoids an estimated 230 
million tons of greenhouse gas emissions, over a third of 
Canada's total. 
 
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COMMENTS 
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10. While uranium mining will never be the boon for Saskatchewan 
that oil and gas have been for Alberta, the province is likely 
to be increasingly identified with the industry. With companies 
like Cameco and COGEMA expanding in Athabasca, Saskatchewan has 
the opportunity to shed its anti-business reputation, stemming 
the tide of money and skilled workers to neighboring provinces. 
Numerous challenges face Saskatchewan's uranium mines, such as 
competition with the booming diamond industry for experienced 
drillers and geophysicists, and the prospect of a downturn in 
new nuclear power construction worldwide. However, with spot 
prices high, and headed higher, Saskatchewan companies like 
Cameco have a rare opportunity to promote their product in a way 
once impossible for the cash-strapped industry. Saskatchewan's 
uranium fields continue to benefit the United States by 
providing a stable supply of an unstable resource. 
 
11. During a July visit to Calgary, Treasury Secretary Snow was 
briefed on Saskatchewan's uranium by Cameco President Jerry 
Grandey.  Grandey also hosted former Ambassador Cellucci and the 
CG for a tour of the McArthur River mine in September 2004 (see 
2004 Calgary 536).  In partnership with Russia and the USG, 
Cameco has been dismantling nuclear warheads in the former 
Soviet Union since 1999.  The target is to dismantle 22,000 
weapons.  By October 2004 when we visited the mine, almost 8,500 
had actually been dismantled. 
 
12. This cable was drafted by our fall intern, David Dill. 
 
 
 
 
AHMED