US embassy cable - 05THEHAGUE2947

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 002947 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/RPM, EUR/UBI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, NL, AF, MAAR 
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: POTENTIAL DELAY ON ISAF 
STAGE III DECISION 
 
 
Classified By: Charge D'Affaires Andrew Schofer, reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (C) Summary/Comment: The Dutch government may delay its 
planned November 4 presentation to Cabinet on Dutch plans to 
participate in ISAF Stage III due to security concerns.  A 
delay at this stage would mean a later debate in parliament, 
but would not necessarily push back the actual deployment. 
It is unclear at this point whether MOD or MFA is driving the 
delay, and both ministries reject Dutch press speculation 
that political in-fighting between the two ministers is 
responsible.  Dutch officials -- both MFA and MOD -- continue 
to stress that the Dutch government is committed to Stage III 
regardless of whether the timing slips.  The Dutch recognize 
the need to consult closely with Australia and other partners 
to minimize any negative repercussions from a delay in the 
decision-making process.  End Summary/Comment. 
 
Press Reports MOD-MFA Spat 
-------------------------- 
 
2. (C)  The Dutch newspaper Volkskrant carried October 27 an 
article alleging that the presentation to Cabinet of plans 
for Dutch participation in ISAF Stage III will be delayed 
beyond November 4 due to feuding between the Ministers of 
Defense (Kamp) and Foreign Affairs (Bot). The article 
speculated that senior MFA officials, including Bot, had 
serious misgiving about the proposed deployments due to the 
security situation in Uruzghan province.  Although contacts 
in both the MOD and MFA denied the substance of this article, 
the Volkskrant and several other papers followed up October 
28 with additional articles describing an ongoing dispute Bot 
and Kamp over Afghanistan and, more generally, over which 
ministry ultimately has responsibility for initiating 
military deployments. 
 
MFA -- MOD Needs To Finish Its Work 
----------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) MFA Director of Security Policy Robert de Groot 
attended a October 28 meeting between Bot and Kamp at which 
Dutch plans for ISAF III were addressed.  De Groot denied 
reports of a "power struggle" between Kamp and Bot, but 
confirmed to Polmiloff that there might be a delay in 
presenting the deployment plan to Cabinet because the MOD 
needs more time to "finish its work."  The press reports, he 
stressed, were "completely unfounded and spurious," and the 
purported MFA position "could not be further from the truth." 
 He added that the planned November 4 presentation date to 
Cabinet was "fabricated by the press".  (Note: Emboffs have 
been told by numerous Dutch government officials that 
November 4 was the planned date of the presentation.  End 
note.)  De Groot said the decision will be taken in due 
course, and in favor of the deployment. 
 
4. (C) In a discussion with Charge on October 28, MFA Deputy 
Political Director Peter de Gooijer declined detailed comment 
on the potential delay.  He noted that the original plan was 
for Bot and Kamp to present the Stage III proposal to Cabinet 
following Kamp's return from Afghanistan -- his visit would 
provide "depth and color" to bolster Cabinet members' 
confidence in favor of the Stage III deployment.  He added 
that any possible delay would require close consultations 
with the Australians to preserve a possible Dutch-Australian 
partnership in Uruzghan.  (Note: De Gooijer led the 
high-level delegation to Canberra last week to discuss 
partnering in Uruzghan, and will accompany Kamp to 
Afghanistan next week.  End note.) 
 
MOD -- Strange Press Reports, But Some Truth 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) MOD Senior Policy Advisor Maarten van Meurs told 
Polmiloff October 28 that the articles were off-base, but 
contained an "element of truth".  He said that there should 
be "absolutely no question" that the Dutch are committed to 
participating in ISAF Stage III.  However, he added that Kamp 
-- and not Bot -- had requested more time for a reassessment 
of the security situation on the ground in Uruzghan.  This 
may delay a Cabinet decision on Stage III participation by 
several weeks, van Meurs said.  It will also require close 
consultations with Dutch Allies, including specifically the 
USG and Australia.  He also noted that the broader rivalry 
between Kamp and Bot alleged in the press was "not far from 
the truth".  The MOD has tried to consult with the MFA on 
Afghanistan and the acquisition of new weapons systems like 
TACTOM, he said, but there is a perception in the MFA that 
Kamp is "stepping on Bot's toes," and "trying to acquire new 
toys". 
 
6. (C) MOD Director for General Policy Affairs Lo Casteleijn 
described the articles as "very strange" and "off-base," and 
expected statements by Prime Minister Jean-Peter Balkenende 
and FM Bot refuting the reports.  Casteleijn further declined 
to comment on the possibility of delaying a Cabinet decision 
on ISAF Stage III participation.  (Note: Casteleijn has 
always been forthcoming; his reluctance to talk is perhaps 
indicative of the turbulent state of play.  End note.) 
 
Comment: Committed but Cautious 
------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) The Dutch government wants to participate in Stage 
III, and is doing everything possible to make it happen with 
the broadest possible political support.  This includes some 
"spin-doctoring" to convince us that they are committed 
despite the potential delay, as indicated by our inability to 
get a straight answer on the actual state of play in Cabinet. 
It does appear that the MOD is slowing an already slow-moving 
train, but it is also possible that Kamp could return from 
Afghanistan convinced of the need to immediately present the 
Stage III plans to Cabinet.  The MFA, meanwhile, appears to 
be living up to its promises to the Australian government by 
pushing the November 4 presentation to Cabinet.  The Dutch 
are clearly aware that any complications in their proposed 
timeline will require some intense consultations with 
Canberra -- and us -- to ensure that the potential 
partnership does not unravel.  End comment. 
 
SCHOFER