US embassy cable - 05QUITO2454

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002454 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT OF INTERIOR PASS TO USGS 
DEPT PASS TO USAID 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: AEMR, EAID, PGOV, SENV, TPHY, EC 
SUBJECT: INADEQUATE CIVIL DEFENSE SYSTEM NEEDS REPAIR 
 
REF: QUITO 0086 
 
1. (U) Summary:  Volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and a 
propensity for flooding can cause widespread destruction in 
Ecuador and call for a robust emergency response system. 
Despite this fact, Ecuador's Office of Civil Defense (CD) 
remains unprepared for the possibility of a natural 
disaster.  Attempting to overcome staffing, budgetary, and 
logistical limitations, the CD is seeking to improve 
capacity by working closely with municipalities and 
decentralizing emergency response functions.  The US Mission 
will play a central role in this effort through new Milgroup 
and USAID programs.   End Summary. 
 
CURRENT THREATS 
--------------- 
 
2. (U) Volcanic eruptions and earthquakes pose the greatest 
natural disaster threat to Ecuador.  According to the 
Geophysical Institute in Quito, fifty-five potentially 
active volcanoes exist in Ecuador.  Of these, five on the 
Ecuadorian mainland are currently active: Cotopaxi, 
Pinchincha, Reventador, Sangay, and Tungurahua.  Pichincha, 
Cotopaxi, and Reventador threaten Quito.  Within the last 
seven years, falling ash from these three volcanoes have 
caused several deaths in Quito and closed Quito's 
international airport for up to 10 days at a time. 
Tungurahua, which last erupted in 1999 and shows new signs 
of activity, endangers the tourist town of Banos.  Other 
potentially active volcanoes could erupt at any time, as was 
the case with the volcano Sierra Negra in the Galapagos, 
which forced several tourist sites to be closed when it 
erupted on October 22. 
 
3. (U) While the press tends to focus on volcanic activity, 
according to the Director of the Geophysical Institute in 
Quito, Ing. Hugo Yepes, earthquakes would cause greater 
destruction.  Because building codes are not enforced, Ing. 
Yepes believes that an earthquake of 6.6 or greater on the 
Richter scale and epicentered near a major city would 
trigger substantial damage.  Earthquakes of magnitudes 
greater than 7.7 occurred four times during the last century 
in Ecuador, including one in 1942 that destroyed most 
reinforced concrete buildings in Guayaquil.  Earthquakes of 
magnitude 3.5 and greater occur over 200 times each year. 
 
INADEQUATE CIVIL DEFENSE SEEKS SOLUTIONS 
---------------------------------------- 
 
4. (U) In the event of any natural disaster, Ecuador's 
Office of Civil Defense (CD) is responsible for coordinating 
the emergency response.  Unfortunately, the CD is woefully 
unprepared to handle any major natural disaster (reftel). 
Its budget is minimal and staff lack training.  Directors -- 
retired military -- rotate every 2 years, disrupting program 
continuity.  Despite its country-wide responsibilities, the 
CD has only five staff members to operate offices in each of 
Ecuador's 22 provinces.  Moreover, the distribution of 
supplies is encumbered by the fact that the CD's only 
warehouse is in Quito.  Even the Director of the CD, General 
Jose Grijalva, admits that the CD is under-funded, overly 
centralized, and without the capacity to respond to major 
disasters. 
 
5. (U) Meanwhile, Ecuador's poor infrastructure likely will 
hamper any response from the CD.  The country's road system 
is underdeveloped and mudslides can easily block traffic on 
major inter-city roads.  Dr. Yepes believes that hospitals, 
even if they survive an earthquake, are not equipped to 
handle the level of medical assistance required in a large- 
scale disaster.  Meanwhile, the last public education 
campaign regarding emergency response procedures was 
conducted in 1996, meaning public awareness is low.  With 
these shortcomings, the CD likely will have to call on the 
Ecuadorian military in the event of a major disaster.  Given 
the CD's acknowledged lack of interagency communication, 
this poses even greater problems. 
 
6. (U) Gen. Grijalva's response to the lack of funding and 
staff is to localize responsibility through municipal 
relationship agreements.  The agreements would create 
provincial juntas consisting of mayors and other community 
leaders.  The juntas would work through presidentially- 
appointed governors to adapt the CD's emergency response 
plan for their particular region.  According to Gen. 
Grijalva, the agreements would provide provinces a greater 
degree of autonomy in how emergency response would be 
carried out.  While this addresses concerns about the CD 
being institutionally centralized, it does not provide 
additional funding to build local capacity, a critical issue 
as Ecuador's rural areas are very poor.  With this in mind, 
Gen. Grijalva proposes drawing on Milgroup and USAID 
programs to fill the void. 
 
ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM:  USG ROLE 
--------------------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) A five-year Milgroup plan would facilitate the CD's 
decentralization efforts by funding Emergency Operation 
Centers in five strategic locations: Pichincha Province in 
the northern Sierra, Azuay Province in the southern Sierra, 
Guayas Province on the coast, Napo Province in the Amazon 
Basin and the Galapagos.  Each center would house trained 
staff and necessary supplies.  The Pichincha project also 
would create a National Center for Emergency Response to 
manage the new emergency response system.  Drawing on a 
Civil Defense Operations Manual document provided to the CD 
earlier this year, Milgroup would provide training to CD 
staff and assist in the development of an emergency response 
exercise program to improve interagency coordination. 
Public concerns regarding the US Military's motives forced 
the GOE to call off a similar project in 2003.  In order to 
avoid misunderstanding, the CD, Milgroup and USAID currently 
are working together to have USAID, as the recognized USG 
Humanitarian Assistance entity in Ecuador, serve as the 
public face of the project.  USAID is currently developing 
legal documents to implement the program. 
 
8. (U) Complementing the Milgroup effort, Gen. Grijalva has 
requested that USAID incorporate emergency response 
components into their existing programs.  Short on details, 
Gen. Grijalva envisions USAID implementing rural development 
projects with an eye toward expanding regional disaster 
response capacity.  USAID is currently in the initial stages 
of developing its FY2007 5-year strategy and is looking for 
opportunities within this strategy to link its efforts with 
disaster preparedness activities. 
 
JEWELL