US embassy cable - 05PORTAUPRINCE2667

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PORT AU PRINCE 002667 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR 
DRL 
S/CRS 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR 
INR/IAA (BEN-YEHUDA) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, HA, Elections 
SUBJECT: HAITI ELECTIONS: DECEMBER 18 TARGET DATE FOR FIRST 
ROUND 
 
REF: A. PORT-AU-PRINCE 2652 
     B. PORT-AU-PRINCE 2634 
     C. PORT-AU-PRINCE 2656 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affairs Douglas M. Griffiths for reasons 1.4(b) 
 and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: MINUSTAH, the Provisional Electoral Council 
(CEP) authorities, and CEP Director General Jacques Bernard 
aim to hold the first round of national elections on December 
18, and have tentatively chosen January 29 for the runoff and 
local elections.  To meet this target, the CEP must still 
approve voting center sites and staffing and , finalize 
candidate lists.  MINUSTAH has started to pick voting centers 
and will present a list of 800 centers to the CEP by October 
30.  The CEP has announced it will publish provisional lists 
of all candidates by Saturday, October 29, and that the list 
will include Dumarsais Simeus.  The government will shortly 
publish the decree removing the Supreme Court from the 
electoral appeals (the decree is with the printers), thus 
shortening the time necessary to prepare final candidate 
lists.  Bernard hopes to gain immediate approval from the CEP 
for new CEP by-laws that limit the role of the electoral 
support committee and strengthen his own authority.  In the 
meantime, the Prime Minister and the Justice Minister 
continued to insist over the past week that dual-national 
candidates will not be allowed to run for office.  The State 
Commission on the Nationality of Candidates ("Commission 
d'Etat sur la Nationalite des Candidats" - CENC) has 
distributed a questionnaire to the presidential candidates 
requiring them to document their citizenship and attest that 
they hold no other nationality.  Bernard's moves are 
encouraging, but the CENC continues to obscure the entire 
electoral process.  End Summary. 
 
Internal Conclusion: First Round December 18 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) After a series of intensive consultations between 
MINUSTAH, the CEP, and Jacques Bernard, all have agreed that 
Sunday, December 18 is the first possible date for the first 
round of national elections.  According to MINUSTAH elections 
chief Gerardo LeChevallier, once the CEP publishes the 
provisional list of legislative candidates, elections 
preparations will take 44 days: nine days for candidate 
contestation; 21 days to print and deliver ballots to 
MINUSTAH; and 14 days for MINUSTAH to distribute the ballots 
to the provinces.  To hold to this timeline, MINUSTAH 
officials told their Haitian counterparts that the 
provisional candidates lists must appear by October 29.  The 
CEP told Emboffs privately that the list could appear as late 
as November 4, though this delay would consume any remaining 
flexibility in their preparations timeline.  MINUSTAH,s 
planning assumes the removal of the Supreme Court from the 
appeals process: the government reports it will promulgate 
this decree on October 28. 
 
3. (C) In addition to producing provisional candidate lists, 
Bernard and the CEP must still move urgently to identify and 
approve voting centers and hire staff.  MINUSTAH has started 
to choose voting centers without consulting the CEP -- much 
as the OAS chose their own sites to jump-start registration 
-- and intends to present to the CEP on October 30 a list of 
roughly 800 voting centers they can secure, support, and 
service as a fait acompli.  Bernard is also pushing the CEP 
to immediately hire all available OAS staff from the 
registration effort, a decision the CEP was unable to make 
prior to Bernard's arrival.  Opening voting centers is also 
necessary in order for the OAS to distribute voter ID cards, 
though the OAS continues to work with the CEP to distribute 
as many ID cards as possible with the limited distribution 
infrastructure now available (ref A).  At Bernard's urging, 
the CEP on October 29 will hold the lottery to assign each 
party a ballot number. 
 
Bernard Now in Charge? 
---------------------- 
4. (C) Bernard has taken further steps to solidify his 
authority.  As detailed in ref B, upon becoming Director 
General on October 15, Bernard inherited by-laws that gave 
the support committee broad authority over the electoral 
process and him virtually none.  Bernard reportedly gained 
the approval of the Prime Minster, President Alexandre, and 
CEP President Mathurin on October 27 for new by-laws that 
would leave the support committee in place but greatly reduce 
its rule while giving Bernard executive authority within a 
(once again) re-structured CEP.  Bernard and the IGOH were to 
seek formal CEP approval for these by-laws on October 28. 
Bernard believed he had the support of six of the nine CEP 
members, with Pierre-Richard Duchemin, Patrick Fequiere, and 
Louis Gerson Richme opposing his increased authority. 
 
5. (C) CEP member Patrick Fequiere announced on October 17 
that the CEP would respect the decisions of the Supreme Court 
and add Dumarsais Simeus and Jean Marie Cherestal to the list 
of approved presidential candidates.  CEP President Max 
Mathurin later confirmed that statement, but support 
committee member Danielle Magloire and other CEP members have 
subsequently indicated that the CEP could again publish a 
provisional presidential list in order to consider 
information provided by the CENC.  (Comment: A second 
provisional list of presidential candidates would not 
necessarily interfere with election planning: MINUSTAH's 
timetable includes the period of contestation for the other 
national candidates that could coincide with a second period 
of presidential contestation.  The legal basis for a second 
provisional presidential list is questionable, however, and 
will further aggravate the developing crisis surrounding 
dual-national candidates. End Comment.) 
 
CENC on the Job 
--------------- 
 
6. (C) Both the Prime Minister and Justice Minister Dorleans 
have repeatedly re-affirmed over the past week their 
intention to support the CENC and disqualify candidates at 
every level who have naturalized abroad or otherwise fail to 
meet constitutional requirements for citizenship and 
residency.  Dorleans warned candidates that while the CEP had 
based its rulings on "faith," the CENC would act according to 
the law.  The Prime Minister insisted most recently on 
October 27 that the CENC would disqualify Mr. Simeus.  The 
CENC delivered on October 21 a questionnaire to the 
presidential candidates requiring them to document family 
relationships, passport information, and travel and residence 
outside of Haiti.  The questionnaire also requires candidates 
to attest they have not "acquired by naturalization another 
citizenship and thus lost Haitian citizenship," as stipulated 
by the constitution.  Simeus and fellow presidential 
candidate Samir Mourra have stated they will not submit the 
questionnaire and will challenge the CENC's legality (ref C). 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7. (C) If Bernard and company can hold a first round on 
December 18, February 7 remains a viable date for a 
transition of power, but just barely.  Apart from meeting the 
immediate deadlines to produce decrees and candidate lists, 
we believe the MINUSTAH timetable will depend on Bernard 
successfully pushing through by-laws that allow him to 
formally operate in tandem with MINUSTAH, free of operational 
interference from the CEP or any other body; a de facto 
takeover of the electoral process by MINUSTAH and a CEP 
executive.  The CENC threatens to disrupt the entire process, 
however, as it moves to identify and disqualify candidates. 
GRIFFITHS