US embassy cable - 02ANKARA8448

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 008448 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2012 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINS, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY'S NEW GOVERNMENT: MORE INSIGHTS INTO 
CABINET FORMATION AND SPEAKERSHIP OF PARLIAMENT 
 
REF: ANKARA 8382 
 
 
(U) Classified by polcounselor John Kunstadter; reasons: 1.5 
(b,d). 
 
 
1. (U) Summary: President Sezer drew a line by rejecting one 
proposed cabinet assignment in the AK government, but allowed 
AK to keep the candidate as a State Minister.  Fiery orator 
Bulent Arinc, who has his own strong following among AK 
voters and whom we expect to underscore the prerogatives of 
Parliament, has been elected Speaker.  End summary. 
 
 
2. (U) We understand that, in considering AK Party's draft 
cabinet list (ref), President Sezer objected to inclusion of 
Besir Atalay as Education Minister.  He did so owing to 
Atalay's having been fired from his rectorship of Kirikkale 
University in the wake of the 1997 "February 28" process 
("post-modern" coup) through which the Turkish military 
organized the downfall of the Islamist Refah-Yol government 
of Necmettin Erbakan.  The High Education Council (YOK) ruled 
that Atalay had hired fundamentalist teachers and given 
scholarships to Islamist students; then President Demirel 
approved the YOK decision.  AK, i.e., P.M.-designate Abdullah 
Gul, insisted on keeping Atalay as a State Minister, gave 
former leading ANAP figure and AK newcomer Erkan Mumcu (ref 
A) the education portfolio, withdrew the name of Vahit Erdem 
as candidate DefMin, and gave the defense portfolio to Vecdi 
Gonul (ref). 
 
 
3. (C) As expected, Nov. 19 AK vice chairman Bulent Arinc was 
elected Speaker of Parliament on the first ballot over CHP 
candidate Onder Sav by 369 to 173 votes.  Arinc, who has a 
strong following among more militant AK supporters, forced 
his way into the position over the plan of party chairman 
Erdogan to promote Vecdi Gonul, trusted by President Sezer, 
for the position which is second in Turkish state protocolary 
order (the Speaker is acting President in President's 
absence). 
 
 
4. (C) Arinc, one of the best orators in Parliament, has thus 
carved out an independent spot for himself, since the Speaker 
is separate from the cabinet and not answerable to the 
President (when the rumors started spreading that Sezer was 
angling to have AK nominate Gonul as Speaker, Arinc 
emphasized to us that Sezer had no right to meddle in the 
selection process).  We will watch the Erdogan-Gul-Arinc 
dynamics and the Arinc-Sezer dynamics closely.  At a minimum 
we can expect Arinc to be more willing to assert the 
prerogatives of the elected Parliament and defend them in the 
face of a limited-power presidency and other elements of the 
Kemalist Deep State.  Arinc bio in para 5. 
 
 
5. (C) Bulent Arinc: 
 
 
--Born in Bursa 1948.  Graduated from Ankara U. Law Faculty 
1970.  Worked as a lawyer in the Aegean region city of 
Manisa.  From his university days was active in Necmettin 
Erbakan's Islamist National Salvation Party (MSP) youth 
branch directorate, and served as Manisa province chairman. 
 
 
--1995 elected on Erbakan's Refah Party ticket from Manisa 
and served in the Refah Party directorate.  He served on the 
parliamentary Judiciary Committee and Turkey-EU Joint 
Commission.  Elected in 1999 from Manisa on the 
Refah-successor Fazilet ticket, Arinc served as a Fazilet 
parliamentary group deputy chairman and served on the Foreign 
Affairs Committee.  Joining the newly-formed AK upon the 
closure of Fazilet, he was elected AK's parliamentary group 
chairman. 
 
 
--Married, two children.  Reads Arabic; studied some English. 
 Devoutly religious Muslim who brings a neo-Ottoman 
sensibility to politics and to foreign policy considerations. 
 
 
--Arinc has built up a strong following among Islam-oriented 
voters partly through years of crisscrossing Turkey as a 
lecturer and symposium participant; through his rhetorical 
skills as an incisive debater on TV talk shows; and through 
his willingness more than others in the Islam-oriented 
movement to call the Turkish military (and Sezer) to task for 
meddling in political affairs.  He has visited Western Europe 
frequently, and has been to the U.S. 
 
 
--Arinc is a long-time. close contact of the Embassy.  Since 
the death of his son in an auto accident in the late 1990's 
and particularly since the formation of AK in mid-2001, we 
have found him to be more attuned to issues of protocol, 
given the attention paid to Erdogan and Gul and his own 
sensitivity at being considered AK's number three man.  At 
the same time he has always been an open interlocutor, 
particularly in more casual settings, where matters of 
protocol do not figure prominently.  He enjoys contact with 
the Embassy.  He is a tough politician, committed to his 
Islam-oriented principles, fiery as an orator but measured in 
private conversation. 
PEARSON