US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4435

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004435 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, IZ, Shia Islamists, Elections 
SUBJECT: TOP SHIA ISLAMIST LEADER SAYS UNIFIED ELECTION 
SLATE DEAL DONE 
 
Classified By: CHARGE DAVID SATTERFIELD, REASON 1.4 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  Senior SCIRI party leader Abdel Mehdi 
told Charge midday October 28 that the unified Shia 
Islamist party list for the December elections is nearly 
ready.  The coalition's leaders are rushing to finish the 
bottom halves of the provincial election slates, and Abdel 
Mehdi anticipated they would make (barely) the October 28 
filing deadline.  He said that Muqtada Sadr has pledged to 
support the Shia Islamist coalition list.  Ahmed Chalabi is 
not on the list, and some prominent independents from the 
Shia coalition in the transitional national assembly, such 
as Ali ad-Debbagh, also are absent from the new list.  The 
coalition's platform calls for strengthening Iraqi security 
forces so that "foreign military forces" can be withdrawn 
from Iraq.  It also urges establishment of regional 
entities in central and southern Iraq.  Abdel Mehdi doubted 
that Ayatollah Sistani would back this list, but that it 
would be the biggest bloc in the future assembly with 100 
seats or more in the 275 member assembly.  The Kurds would 
have no choice but to join with this Shia coalition to set 
up the future government, a process that he thought would 
go faster than the painful negotiations that established 
the transitional government.  End Summary. 
 
 
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Unified Shia Islamist List Almost Done 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C)  Deputy President Adel Abdel Mehdi told Charge 
October 28 midday that the unified Shia Islamist party 
election lists was nearly finished.  He said that the top 
names for each provincial election slate were finalized, 
and as Friday progressed the coalition's leaders were 
finishing the bottom halves of the election list.  (While 
we were talking he received a call about the number eight 
slot on the Basra list.)  Abdel Mehdi expected to be 
finished with the slates in time to meet the October 28 
deadline, but he acknowledged it was very hard going. 
 
--------------- 
Muqtada Sadr In 
--------------- 
 
3.  (C)  The Deputy President confirmed that Muqtada Sadr 
would support the coalition.  He viewed this as a useful 
element of a strategy to pull Sadrists out of street 
violence and into the political process.  He said a big 
lesson from 2004 was that it is best to have open 
communication with Sadr. 
 
------------------------- 
Chalabi, Independents Out 
------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Abdel Mehdi, a senior SCIRI party leader, said 
that many persons lost out ("there were slaughterings") in 
the process of building the new coalition.  Notably, the 
coalition would not include Deputy Prime Minister Ahmed 
Chalabi.  Abdel Mehdi said the coalition leadership invited 
him in, but with only three seats.  Chalabi had decided to 
pursue his own list, and Abdel Mehdi thought it would be 
better for Chalabi to underline his secular credentials 
away from the Shia Islamist list.  Abdel Mehdi said some 
familiar independents, such as Ali ad-Dabbagh, also would 
not be in the coalition, as well as some small Islamist 
parties like the Islamic Action Organization.  Parliament 
Deputy Speaker Husayn Shahristani is in the coalition. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Platform OK on Coalition Forces, Urges Federalism 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
5.  (C)  Abdel Mehdi let us review briefly the draft 
coalition election platform (three pages single-spaced in 
Arabic).  It pledged to strengthen the capabilities of the 
Iraqi security forces so that foreign military forces, 
necessary in the past, can be withdrawn.  It also calls for 
implementing CPA order 91 about qualifying members of 
"armed groups that had fought the previous regime - 
militias" into the security services.  The platform calls 
for rapid movement towards establishing regional entities 
in the "center and south" of Iraq.  It pledged to implement 
article 58 of the transition law (about Kirkuk) and 
"correction" of borders to end disputes among Iraqis. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Faster Stand Up of New Government ? 
--------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C)  Abdel Mehdi recognized that there was some 
dissatisfaction with the performance of the Jafari 
government, and this might reduce its strength.  He also 
stated that Ayatollah Sistani would not back the list and 
would stay out of the election race. 
 
7.  (C)  Nonetheless, Abdel Mehdi anticipates that the Shia 
Islamist coalition will win 100 seats or more.  He expected 
the coalition to be the largest bloc in the future national 
assembly and that it would choose the next prime minister. 
Acknowledging that he was a lead candidate, Abdel Mehdi 
noted that current Prime Minister Jafari has not 
relinquished the idea of staying in the job.  Abdel Mehdi 
doubted that Jafari could get the votes even within his own 
Da'wa party, much less within the larger Shia Islamist 
coalition.  The coalition would likely choose its prime 
ministerial nominee during the campaign, and Abdel Mehdi 
predicted that negotiations about the future permanent 
government could start even during the campaign.  He 
anticipated it would be an easier set of negotiations than 
were the prolonged discussions in the spring of 2005 
setting up the transitional government.  The Kurds would 
have no choice but to cut a deal with the Shia Islamist 
coalition, he predicted.  Abdel Mehdi didn't rule out 
former Prime Minister Allawi playing a role in the 
permanent government but not as prime minister. 
 
8.  (C)  Charge said the U.S. had serious concerns about 
whether a unified Shia Islamist list would not aggravate 
the polarization within Iraqi society between Sunni Arabs, 
Shia and Kurds as well as secularists and Islamists.  He 
urged Abdel Mehdi as a top leader of the coalition to find 
ways to reach out even during the campaign to ease this 
problem.  Abdel Mehdi said the polarization is an unhappy 
fact in Iraq now.  The Shia Islamist coalition would have 
to first tend to its base, but he acknowledged the utility 
of reaching out earlier, not later.  Charge also underlined 
that the U.S. wants to see an effective, capable 
government.  We prefer no repeats of the problems that have 
hurt ministries like Interior and Health.  In specific, 
there must not be party or militia control or perceived 
control of ministries - especially the security ministries. 
This meant Badr and the Mahdi Army need to stay out.  Abdel 
Mehdi pushed back hard initially, saying that there were 
still too many Baathists in the ministries.  He asked for 
understanding that Iraq was still undergoing a 
transformation from Sunni and Baathist rule.  Charge 
stressed that the issue was loyalty to the state and 
professional competence.  Abdel Mehdi accepted the point. 
It was important for Shia and Kurds to be adequately 
represented in the ministries, but - he said - the time for 
constant purges of personnel was past - as the Alliance 
platform document confirmed. 
 
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Comment 
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9.  (C)  Evidently self-satisfied, Abdel Mehdi acknowledged 
that "two days ago we didn't know if we could achieve this 
list."  The impact of the list on the December 15 elections 
and the next government will be significant.  As we have 
reported, the Kurds have assembled a unified list, and the 
Sunni Arabs also have set up one major coalition list as 
well.  We will send a separate analysis of the factors 
impelling Iraqi political forces to establish lists around 
ethnic and sectarian lines. 
 
 
Satterfield