US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK6798

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 006798 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:10/26/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, TH, Democratic Party, Political Parties, Southern Thailand 
SUBJECT:  OPPOSITION POLITICIAN PESSIMISTIC ON SOUTH, PARTY 
PROSPECTS 
 
REF:  BANGKOK 6240 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR SUSAN M. SUTTON, reason 
1.4 (b) (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary: A Democrat party MP gave downbeat 
assessments of his party's short term prospects, and of the 
security situation in the troubled South.  The MP warned 
that the current government would be unable to resolve the 
problems in the South because it had completely lost the 
trust of the people.  Meanwhile, the PM was not too 
concerned, as his nationalist rhetoric on the issue was 
actually winning him support around the country.  The 
Democrat party must rebuild from the grass roots, in the 
MP's view, and cannot rely on a "people power" type revolt 
to unseat the prime minister and his powerful Thai Rak Thai 
party.  His view of the South is overly pessmistic, we 
believe, but he is probably right about his own party's 
weakness in the face of a still-strong TRT.  End summary. 
 
Prospects for the South -- bad 
------------------------------ 
 
2.  (C) Polcouns met with Sukhumbrand 
Paribatra, a party list MP and Democrat Party 
(DP) leader.  Sukhumbrand echoed the concerns 
of other DP interlocutors in assessing the 
situation in the South.  He respected the 
members of the National Reconciliation 
Commission (NRC) but doubted whether their work 
could have much impact.  At this point, he 
said, it won't help even if the government 
comes up with a good solution to respond to the 
core problems in the South.  The government 
itself is the problem, and more specifically 
the Prime Minister.  The people in the South 
have no faith in the government or PM anymore 
and will not trust anything they do. 
 
3. (C)  Further, Thaksin has little incentive 
to make concessions that might help quiet the 
problems in the South.  Thaksin's nationalist 
rhetoric is still popular with the people in 
the rest of the country. "For every one enemy 
he makes in the South, he gets ten supporters," 
Sukhumbrand claimed.  Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai 
(TRT) party is prepared to concede the South to 
the opposition. "What does it matter that he 
loses 40-50 MPs from the South, if he wins 
everywhere else in the country?" Sukhumbrand 
asked. 
 
Prospects for the opposition -- bad 
----------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Polcouns asked what the Democrat Party 
strategy would be for the Senate elections next 
year.  "Shall I tell you honestly?  We will get 
on our knees and pray."  Sukhumbrand said. He 
expected that TRT would "use state power" and 
their control over the media so effectively 
that the DP and other opposition parties would 
not have a chance.  DP was also to blame; for 
many years it had been "coasting," certain that 
it would muster enough seats to have a role in 
any coalition government.  The dramatic losses 
in 2001 and this year had shaken up the party, 
and now they would have to rebuild.  The new 
party leader, Abhisit Vejjajiva, had told the 
party that it must now compete to win, not just 
to be part of a coalition. 
 
5.  (C) In the by-elections on October 30, the 
opposition could only hope to gain one or two 
seats.  It had hoped to win three of the four 
contests, reaching 125 seats in the Parliament; 
this is the number needed to initiate censure 
and impeachment motions.  Sukhumbrand did not 
expect to succeed.  The opposition would take 
the seat in Satun in the South, which TRT had 
decided not to contest (unless low turn-out 
rendered the election void).  The opposition 
had a chance Phichit, which has been hotly 
contested . In Uthai Thani, "all that matters 
is money" and TRT has more of it.  In Singburi, 
the opposition candidate has not maintained 
good contact with his constituency, and so is 
not expected to do well. 
 
6. (C)  Polcouns asked about the impact of the 
Auditor-General scandal (reftel) and the 
efforts by opposition groups to gin up 
widespread public discontent and anti- 
government demonstrations over the issue. 
Sukhumbrand discounted the effect of the 
scandal.  "It's too complicated," he said, "I 
had to have it explained to me twice." 
(Comment: us, too. end comment.)  If the public 
does rise up against the government, it would 
probably be over some simple issue that no one 
can now predict, like the death of a family 
from bird flu. He drew a parallel with the 
student demonstrations of the past, which had 
grown out of narrow grievances. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7. (C) Sukhumbrand gave a more realistic 
assessment of the political situation than we 
have heard from many other opposition and civil 
society figures.  His view that the party 
cannot count on public unrest and "people 
power" revolt against Thaksin is probably 
unwelcome among many of his colleagues, who 
would like to avoid the long, hard job of 
building grassroots support around the country. 
His assessment of the South may be too grim, in 
our view.  We don't think that it is yet too 
late for good government policies effectively 
implemented to improve the conditions in the 
South.  Unfortunately, the situation might 
reach that point if the government doesn't work 
more effectively soon. 
 
BOYCE