US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1866

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001866 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, CE, Political Parties, Elections 
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA'S DIVERSE CENTRAL PROVINCE 
HEADED FOR CLOSE ELECTION, BUT UNP LEADING 
 
Classified By: DCM James F. Entwistle, for reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: On Poloff's October 23-26 trip to Sri Lanka's 
Central Province, interlocutors in the three districts of Nuwara 
Eliya, Kandy and  Matale indicated that United National Party 
(UNP) candidate Ranil  Wickremesinghe was slightly ahead of the 
Sri Lanka Freedom Party's (SLFP)  Mahinda Rajapakse in the 
runup to a very close election.  The views of voters  in this 
ethnically diverse province could offer a good indication of 
how different ethnic and religious groups plan to vote in the 
election nationwide.   Tamil dominated Nuwara Eliya has the most 
widespread UNP support, while Kandy  will likely have a slight 
UNP majority and Matale's primarily Sinhalese  residents are 
likely to vote in higher numbers for the SLFP.  Police and 
government officials voiced confidence in a violence-free election, 
but party  organizers in Kandy and Matale are concerned about 
voter intimidation and vote  rigging.  Our contacts observed that 
up to twenty percent of voters in the  Central Province remain 
undecided, and suggested that both parties' house-to-house 
campaigns over the next three weeks will be crucial to the 
outcome.  End Summary. 
 
Nuwara Eliya: Tamils Want to Avoid War at any Cost 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
2.  (C) Nuwara Eliya, the most southern of the Central Province's 
three  districts, is largely comprised of approximately 1.5 
million "up-country"  Tamils of Indian origin who work on the 
tea plantations and support the UNP.   In a meeting on October 
24, former UNP Mayor of Nuwara Eliya S. Vivekananthan  explained 
to Poloff that the three most important issues to up-country 
Tamils are the lack of land rights, opportunities for education 
and health facilities.  He noted that most up-country Tamils 
plan to vote UNP because  Ranil Wickremesinghe promised in his 
manifesto to "banish current land permits  and give the land 
to Tamil occupants," while Mahinda Rajapakse is perceived as 
anti-minority.  He recalled that historically eighty-one percent 
of the district's residents come out to vote, and predicted that 
seventy percent of  voters would support the UNP.  At a meeting 
with Nuwara Eliya's NGO leaders,  Ms. Ranji Stubbs from MENCAFEP, 
an NGO that assists mentally handicapped  children, added that 
Rajapakse's pact with the Sinhalese nationalist Janatha Vimukthi 
Peramuna (JVP) and Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) raised concerns 
among  the otherwise election-weary plantation workers that an 
SLFP victory would ruin  the Cease Fire Agreement (CFA). 
"Plantation Tamils don't know the details of  the peace process," 
Stubbs reflected, "but if they think that there is even a  one 
percent chance that Rajapakse could take the country back to war, 
then they will vote UNP." 
 
3.  (C) Most of the up-country Tamils traditionally belong to the 
Ceylon Worker's Congress (CWC), a labor union-based political 
party purportedly  fighting for the rights of plantation workers, 
which has pledged to support  Ranil Wickremesinghe. 
Interlocutors in the area described how corruption in  the party 
and disappointment in the leadership of Arumugan Thondaman, the 
grandson of the CWC founder, are leading an increasing number of 
workers to  join the splinter Ceylon Worker's Alliance (CWA) and 
the Up-Country People's  Front (UPF).  The CWA has supported 
the SLFP since it came to power in 2000,  and General Secretary 
S. Sathasivam predicted that approximately ten to fifteen  percent 
of up-country Tamils will vote for the SLFP in the presidential 
election.  The CWA broke away from the Congress because of 
political problems  with the UNP and personal differences with 
Thondaman, but Sathasivam  highlighted President Kumaratunga's 
role in starting the Plantation  Infrastructure Ministry and looking 
after the plight of the up-country Tamils  over the last six years. 
M. Lawrence, Vice President for the UPF, told Poloff  that his 
party supports the UNP because of Wickremesinghe's position on 
devolution of power to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam 
(LTTE) and his  promise to consider "giving up-country Tamils a 
larger role in the peace  process."  He estimated that the CWC's 
membership has decreased to 60,000 union  members, which has 
increased UPF support to almost 40,000.  Commenting on the  rise 
of the UPF, Palm Foundation representative Saman  ijebandara 
worried that  revolutionary Tamil youth in the area are joining 
the group because they  sympathize with the LTTE, which has close 
UPF connections. 
 
Kandy: Minorities and Urban Sinhalese Prefer UNP 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
4.  (SBU) In Kandy District, representatives of both minorities and 
urban  Sinhalese voters in the area were (perhaps overly) confident 
of a UNP victory.   Kandy has approximately 900,000 voters, 
comprised of about 73 percent Sinhalese  Buddhist, 11 percent 
Tamil, 13 percent Muslim and 3 percent Christian.  Urban  voters 
tend to support the pro-business UNP, and can afford to be more 
focused  on the peace process. Kandy CWC organizer Mathi Yuga 
Rajah emphasized that  Rajapakse's electoral pact with the JVP and 
JHU was turning off swing voters,  and invigorating the UNP base. 
Attorney Harindra Dunuwille, former Mayor of  the Municipal 
Council and MP for Kandy District, added that President 
Kumaratunga is sacrificing SLFP unity by publicly criticizing the 
JVP,  questioning the direction of her party's campaign, and 
withholding full support for Rajapakse's campaign.  SLFP 
supporters in Kandy may not switch their vote  to the UNP, he 
predicted, but they won't come out to vote in strong numbers for 
their candidate, rendering SLFP support among the Sinhalese in 
Kandy relatively  weak.  Lakshman Perera, pastor of one of the 
largest churches in Kandy, said  that Christians were very 
concerned about the rising influence of JVP and JHU  power, 
which could turn Rajapakse into a "puppet in JVP hands."  "Sri 
Lanka's  Christians care most about maintaining peace, and will 
vote for the UNP," he  concluded. 
 
 
Matale: UNP Will Divide the Country and Cut Welfare Benefits 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
 
5.  (C) Matale District residents are primarily Sinhalese farmers 
and traders,  a strong base for the SLFP, and are focused on 
economic issues.  In contrast to  the South, where voters are more 
confident in the UNP's ability to reduce the  cost of living, the 
"average man" in Matale is concerned about the future of  the 
Samurdhi Welfare Program.  SLFP and UNP organizers estimate 
that between  forty and fifty percent of Matale residents receive a 
monthly stipend of up to  1000 Sri Lanka Rupees (10 USD) from 
the Samurdhi program.  Both the SLFP and  UNP promise to 
increase benefits, but Wickremesinghe also plans to change the 
name of the program to Siya Saviya (self-sufficiency).  Saliya 
Dayananda, a UNP  organizer in the Dambulla electorate in 
Matale, regretted that the name change  has created a perception 
among farmers that Ranil will change the program  completely, 
including cutting benefits.  He speculated that this could be 
"the deciding issue" for voters in the region, and called the 
name change the  biggest political blunder of the UNP campaign. 
Capitalizing on this incorrect  perception, Dambulla's SLFP 
Secretary of the Central Committee Jayathilake  stressed that his 
 
SIPDIS 
party is reminding villagers in their house to house campaign 
that when Ranil became Prime Minister in 2001, he cut benefits 
for the Samurdhi  Welfare Program. 
 
6.  (C) Although the peace process is less of a priority in Matale 
than in  areas in the north and east, SLFP organizers around the 
district asserted that  Mahinda's pact with the JVP and JHU is not 
a liability because villagers fear  the UNP is too soft on the 
LTTE and are increasingly supportive of the JVP.   According to 
SLFP Provincial Council Member Dhammika Angammana, in the 2001 
General Elections, the JVP received almost 20,000 of the 210,000 
Matale  district votes (compared to 89,000 for the SLFP and 
100,000 for the UNP).  He explained that JVP support since then 
has increased because people are losing confidence in politicians 
from the two major parties.  SLFP campaigners are stressing the 
need to maintain a unitary state, and spreading the fear that if 
Ranil becomes president, he will "divide the country." SLFP and 
UNP interlocutors confirmed the widespread public perception that 
Ranil is too soft  on the LTTE.  With 500 village level committees 
and 25 cadres in each committee  to spread the news, Matale SLFP 
Provincial Council Member W. M. Yasamana plans  to take this 
message to every house in Matale within the next three weeks. 
 
Prospects for Election Violence in Kandy and Matale 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
7.  (C) Police and election officials around the Central Province 
expressed  confidence that the elections would be free of violence, 
but unofficial  interlocutors remained worried about voter 
intimidation and vote rigging.   Kandy experienced the worst 
election violence in recent years when the then-SLFP Deputy 
Defense Minister was accused of killing 10 Muslim voters 
during the 2001 General Elections.  Nimal Mediwaka, the Deputy 
Inspector General for the Central Province, admitted that previous 
elections have been "a  battlefield," but reported no election 
violations in the 2004 General  Elections.  According to 
Mediwaka, the improvement is due to the creation of the 
independent National Police Commission, which has curbed the 
impartiality  and abuses of previous elections.  In an October 
23 meeting, Central Province  police and party representatives 
said they were committed to working for free  and fair elections. 
Mediwaka cited this as proof of a "changed attitude," and he 
plans to continue holding the meetings on a weekly basis until 
the elections  to sort out any concerns. 
 
8.  (C) Nevertheless, UNP supporters and organizers in Kandy and 
Matale, including former President of the Bar Association in 
Kandy Shaul Maharoof,  worried about the likelihood of SLFP 
vote rigging and voter intimidation.   Pastor Lakshman claimed 
that the SLFP has circumvented election laws by placing  teachers 
who support the SLFP in polling places to overlook irregularities 
and  sending party activists to UNP stronghold villages to 
intimidate voters.   Traders at a local marketplace called the 
Dambulla Economic Center were  hesitant to discuss their views 
out of fear that word would get back to  "thuggish" SLFP MP 
Janaka Bandara Tennekon, the current Minister of Provincial 
Councils and Local Government.  Most traders publicly stated they 
would vote  SLFP, but interestingly one SLFP "supporter" caught 
up with POL FSN after the  meeting in the public market to quietly 
explain that most of the traders wanted  Ranil to win, but were 
worried about the repercussions if they were branded UNP 
supporters. 
 
 
Comment: Where you Stand Depends Upon Where you Live 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
9.  (U) While minority support for the UNP is no surprise, 
interlocutors around  the province believe that Wickremesinghe 
has taken a slight lead since October  and that Rajapakse's 
campaign will continue to suffer from his JVP/JHU pact. 
Anytime our contacts extrapolated their analysis to the country, 
Ranil usually  came out slightly ahead, but all admitted that it 
is too close to call and that  many voters will decide in the 
next three weeks.  Despite the stark choices the  two main 
candidates offer on the peace process and economy, many of our 
interlocutors in Central Province observed that up to 20 percent 
of voters  remain undecided.  When asked about the deciding 
factor, analysts predicted  that up-country Tamils will go with 
the historical tendency to "vote for the elephant" (the UNP 
symbol), Kandyans will support Ranil to continue the peace 
process, and Matale villagers will fight for the SLFP to save 
their monthly  handout and keep the island intact. 
LUNSTEAD