US embassy cable - 05LJUBLJANA764

C O N F I D E N T I A L  LJUBLJANA 000764 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2015 
TAGS: PREL, SI, BO 
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA ON BELARUS POLICY 
 
REF: STATE 188900 
 
Classified By: COM Thomas B. Robertson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary.   Slovenia currently has a significant (for 
its size) commercial relationship with Belarus totaling 
around USD 30 million in trade; politically, relations are 
cool.  The Government of Slovenia (GOS) agrees that it is 
important for the US and EU to have a coordinated approach to 
Belarus, and that getting Moscow constructively on board is 
key to success of our policy.  The GOS thinks funding Russian 
or Ukrainian NGOs working in Belarus might be a promising 
avenue for influencing civil society in Belarus.  End Summary. 
 
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A History of Cooperation 
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2.  (C)  Pol/Econ Chief met with the Director of the Bureau 
of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Ada Filip-Slivnik October 
25 to discuss reftel points.  Filip-Slivnik has spent much of 
her career, including seven years in Moscow, focused on the 
USSR, Russia and the CIS.  She explained that during USSR and 
Yugoslavia years, Slovenia had a close, cooperative 
relationship with Belarus. Slovenia had wanted to create a 
partnership with Estonia, but when that was not permitted by 
Moscow, it decided to partner with Belarus.  Filip-Slivnik 
said that at that time (1980s), Slovenia and Belarus were 
both the most developed regions of their respective 
federations and the partnership made political and economic 
sense.  According to Filip-Slivnik, through a state 
administered bartering plan Belarus and Slovenia enjoyed 
around USD 20 million in trade annually.  This relationship 
continued until 1991, when they each gained independence. 
For the next few years the political exchanges fell off as 
the new countries grappled with their respective transitions. 
 
3.  (C) By the mid 90s, contacts had been renewed, and 
Filip-Slivnik, who was posted to Moscow at the time, had 
great hopes for the Lukashenko government.  She said that 
Slovenia saw him initially as someone "new" and "better" than 
the old party hacks still in power.  He had been a vocal 
member of the anti-corruption committee in parliament which 
suggested to her at that time that he would bring Belarus 
closer to the west.  These days, the GOS studiously avoids 
high-level political contacts.  Lukashenko has attempted to 
attract a high-level visitor from Ljubljana using the premise 
of OSCE discussions.  When it became clear to the GOS, 
however, that the Belarussians were more interested in a 
bilateral agenda, Slovene FM Rupel (and OSCE Chairman in 
Office) canceled his travel plans.  Politics aside, the 
commercial relationship remains important.  Through its 
generic drug manufacturer, Krka, engineering and construction 
contracts, Slovenia enjoys around USD 30 million in trade 
with Belarus. (Note: Lukashenko, did enjoy a private skiing 
vacation in Slovenia last winter and managed a meeting with 
former Slovene President Milan Kucan.) 
 
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Advancing the Democracy Agenda 
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4.  (C) In engaging on our democracy and civil society 
agenda, Filip-Slivnik suggested going through Ukrainian or 
Russian NGOs working in Belarus.  She thought the Belarus 
government would be too suspicious of NGOs from the Baltics 
or other western countries, but NGOs from its neighbors might 
at least be allowed to operate.  She suggested focusing first 
on environment or health issues.   Filip-Slivnik also 
mentioned the Forum of Slavic Cultures which Slovenia 
established several years ago but which has languished under 
the direction of the Ministry of Culture.  Responsibility for 
this project has recently been relocated to the MFA.  While 
current EU policy prohibits Slovenia from inviting the Govt. 
of Belarus to participate in its programs, Filip-Slivnik 
thought there might be possibilities for engaging civil 
society.  Filip-Slivnik also agreed that getting the Russians 
on board would be key. 
 
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Comment 
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5.  (C)  As with Russia, Slovenia enjoyed a warm and 
cooperative relationship with Belarus during Yugoslav years. 
Lukashenko's meeting last year with former President Kucan 
was the product of pressure from Slovenians with strong 
business ties in Belarus and, while not formally sponsored by 
the then-government showed that the GOS was prepared to look 
the other way and not block a very unfortunate visit.  We 
believe the current government will generally be more 
receptive to the need not to cater to Belarus shenanigans. 
OSCE CiO and FM Rupel's cancellation of his trip to Belarus 
when they tried to turn his OSCE visit into a bilateral visit 
 
is a case in point.  Based on Slovenia's generally good trade 
ties with Belarus, and the new Government's understanding of 
the need to hold the GOB's feet to the fire, we think 
Slovenians (not just GOS) might potentially provide a conduit 
to encourage Lukashenko's departure. 
ROBERTSON 
 
 
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