US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4381

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004381 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: TAIWAN'S PEOPLE'S FIRST PARTY: SNAPSHOT OF A PARTY 
IN DECLINE 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan 
Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  THE WEAKENED AND DEMORALIZED PEOPLE'S FIRST 
PARTY (PFP) APPEARS SET TO SLIP FURTHER IN POLITICAL 
INFLUENCE IN THE UPCOMING DECEMBER LOCAL ELECTIONS.  WITH 
JUST ONE LIKELY AND ONE POSSIBLE ELECTION VICTORY, THE PFP 
WILL BE FURTHER MARGINALIZED AND ITS FUTURE FURTHER CLOUDED. 
CHAIRMAN JAMES SOONG SHOWS NO SIGNS OF MOVING TO STOP THE 
PARTY'S SLIDE THROUGH COOPERATION WITH ITS SOMETIME PAN-BLUE 
COALITION PARTNER, THE KUOMINTANG PARTY (KMT).  ON THE 
CONTRARY, SOONG'S RECENT TRIAL BALLOONS HINTING AT HIS 
RUNNING IN NEXT YEAR'S TAIPEI MAYORAL RACE ARE SEEN AS A 
CHALLENGE TO KMT CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU'S 2008 PRESIDENTIAL 
AMBITIONS AND DRIVE THE TWO PARTIES FURTHER APART, TO THE 
PFP'S DISADVANTAGE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
PFP'S LONG SLIDE 
---------------- 
 
2.  (U) THE PFP HAS DECLINED STEADILY IN PUBLIC SUPPORT, FROM 
18 PERCENT AT ITS FOUNDING IN 2000 TO 5 PERCENT IN THE MOST 
RECENT SURVEY (COMPARED WITH THE KMT'S REVERSE TREND FROM 15 
TO 29 PERCENT IN THE SAME PERIOD).  WHEN EFFORTS TO MERGE PFP 
AND KMT FAILED, PFP'S VOTE SHARE IN THE DECEMBER 2004 
LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS DECLINED TO 14 PERCENT, DOWN FROM 19 
PERCENT IN 2001.  PFP CHAIRMAN JAMES SOONG'S EFFORTS TO 
RESUSCITATE THE PARTY THIS YEAR INCLUDING HIS SHORT-LIVED 
ALLIANCE WITH PRESIDENT CHEN SHUI-BIAN IN FEBRUARY AND HIS 
MAY VISIT TO MAINLAND CHINA, ALSO FAILED TO HALT THE PARTY'S 
SLIDE.  IN MAY, THE PFP FINISHED LAST IN THE NATIONAL 
ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS WITH JUST 6 PERCENT OF THE VOTE.  THE 
GROWING DEMORALIZATION AMONG THE PFP MEMBERSHIP WAS REFLECTED 
IN THREE HIGHLY PUBLICIZED DESERTIONS TO THE KMT, INCLUDING 
THAT OF POPULAR PFP LEGISLATOR CHOU HSI-WEI, WHO REJOINED THE 
KMT AND RECEIVED THE KMT NOMINATION IN THE ALL-IMPORTANT 
DECEMBER TAIPEI COUNTY MAGISTRATE ELECTION. 
 
DECEMBER ELECTIONS:  ALL HOPES ON KEELUNG 
----------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) PFP DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC AND CULTURAL AFFAIRS 
LIAO WEN-CHANG TOLD AIT THAT THE PAN-BLUE CAMP WILL BE THE 
BIG WINNER IN THE DECEMBER 3 YEAR-END ELECTIONS.  HE WAS, 
HOWEVER, PESSIMISTIC OVER HIS OWN PFP'S ELECTION PROSPECTS. 
IN AUGUST, LIAO HAD TOLD AIT THAT IF THE KMT REFUSED TO YIELD 
FIVE OR SIX KEY ELECTIONS TO PFP CANDIDATES, THE PFP WOULD BE 
FORCED TO FIGHT FOR ITS VERY SURVIVAL.  THE TWO PARTIES, IN 
FACT, WERE UNABLE TO AGREE ON CANDIDATES IN ANY OF THE KEY 
RACES, INCLUDING KEELUNG AND TAICHUNG CITIES AND HUALIEN AND 
MIAOLI COUNTIES.  LIAO TOLD AIT THAT OF THE FOUR DISTRICTS 
WHERE PFP CANDIDATES ARE RUNNING, THE PFP WILL LIKELY WIN 
ONLY LIENCHIANG COUNTY (MATSU ISLAND), HAS A REASONABLE 
CHANCE OF WINNING KEELUNG CITY, AND HAS NO CHANCE OF WINNING 
IN EITHER TAICHUNG CITY OR HUALIEN COUNTY.(NOTE: CURRENTY, 
THE PFP ONLY CONTROLS MATSU. END NOTE.) 
 
4.  (C) LIAO BECAME UPBEAT AND HOPEFUL ONLY WHEN TALK TURNED 
TO THE KEELUNG CITY MAYOR'S RACE, WHERE PFP LEGISLATOR LIU 
WEN-HSIUNG HAS A RAZOR-THIN THREE-POINT LEAD OVER INCUMBENT 
KMT MAYOR HSU TSAI-LI, ACCORDING TO SOME POLLS.  THE KEELUNG 
RACE, LIAO TOLD AIT, IS CRITICAL TO THE PFP SINCE IT IS THE 
PARTY'S ONLY CHANCE FOR A BIG WIN BY UNSEATING THE KMT 
INCUMBENT CANDIDATE HSU.  IF THE PFP LOSES KEELUNG CITY, LIAO 
NOTED, "ALL IS LOST".  HE EXPLAINED THAT THE PFP'S ONLY 
ELECTION STRATEGY FOR KEELUNG IS TO TRY TO PERSUADE TAIPEI 
MAYOR MA YING-JEOU NOT TO VISIT KEELUNG AND CAMPAIGN FOR KMT 
CANDIDATE HSU, OR AT LEAST TO MINIMIZE HIS VISITS TO KEELUNG 
CITY.  THIS COULD ONLY HAPPEN THROUGH VERY QUIET DIPLOMACY, 
LIAO NOTED, AND KMT CANDIDATE HSU MUST NEVER LEARN OF SUCH A 
DEAL.  (COMMENT: THE PFP STRATEGY IS NOT WORKING. MA HAS BEEN 
VISITING KEELUNG TO SUPPORT MAYOR HSU, AND THE KMT IN KEELUNG 
IS HIGHLIGHTING THE STRONG CONNECTION BETWEEN MA AND HSU. END 
COMMENT.) 
 
OTHER RACES 
----------- 
 
5.  (C) PFP CHAIRMAN JAMES SOONG, LIAO TOLD AIT, WILL VISIT 
KEELUNG CITY AND HUALIEN COUNTY TO CAMPAIGN FOR PFP 
CANDIDATES.  SOONG IS LARGELY INDIFFERENT TO THE LOWER LEVEL 
RACES FOR COUNTY AND CITY COUNCILORS AND TOWN MAGISTRATES, 
LIAO LAMENTED, NOTING THAT THESE OFFER THE BEST CHANCE FOR 
THE PFP TO WIN ELECTIONS AND, THUS, KEEP THE PARTY ALIVE. 
LIAO HIMSELF WILL TRAVEL TO HUALIEN COUNTY, KEELUNG CITY, AND 
TAINAN CITY AND COUNTY TO MOBILIZE SUPPORT FOR CANDIDATES AT 
THE COUNCIL LEVEL.  THROUGHOUT THE CONVERSATION, LIAO 
WONDERED ALOUD ABOUT THE PFP'S FATE, EXPRESSED THE NEED FOR 
THE PFP TO COLLABORATE MORE CLOSELY WITH THE KMT AND SEEMED 
RESIGNED TO A DISMAL FUTURE FOR THE PARTY. 
 
SOONG'S OWN POLITICAL ASPIRATIONS 
--------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) LIAO CONFIRMED TO AIT THAT CHAIRMAN SOONG IS 
SERIOUSLY ASSESSING HIS OPTIONS FOR A POSSIBLE RUN IN NEXT 
YEAR'S TAIPEI CITY MAYORAL RACE.  KMT CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU, 
HE NOTED, WOULD NOT BE AT ALL PLEASED WITH OR SUPPORTIVE OF 
ANY PLAN THAT MIGHT PUT SOONG IN DIRECT COMPETITION WITH MA 
FOR THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  LIAO, HOWEVER, 
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT SOONG WOULD NEED KMT SUPPORT FOR A MAYORAL 
BID, OTHERWISE HE COULD END UP IN A RE-PLAY OF HIS FAILED 
2000 PRESIDENTIAL BID, WHICH SPLIT THE PAN-BLUE VOTE AND GAVE 
THE ELECTION TO DPP'S CHEN SHUI-BIAN.  LIAO, NEVERTHELESS, 
WAS SKEPTICAL THIS WOULD HAPPEN, SINCE SOONG AND MA ARE 
CURRENTLY AT ODDS AND NOT COMMUNICATING WITH EACH OTHER. 
KEEGAN