US embassy cable - 05ISLAMABAD16138

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 ISLAMABAD 016138 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE ALSO PASS TO USAID 
USAID/W FOR A/AID ANDREW NATSIOS, JBRAUSE 
DCHA/OFDA KISAACS, GGOTTLIEB, MMARX, RTHAYER, BDEEMER 
AID/W FOR DCHA/OFDA 
SOUTH ASIA RESPONSE MANAGEMENT TEAM 
SOUTH ASIA EARTHQUAKE TASK FORCE 
DCHA/FFP FOR LAUREN LANDIS 
ANE DEPUTY ASSISTANT ADMINISTRATOR MARK WARD 
BANGKOK FOR OFDA SENIOR REGIONAL ADVISOR TOM DOLAN 
KATHMANDU FOR OFDA REGIONAL ADVISOR WILLIAM BERGER 
ROME PASS FODAG 
GENEVA FOR RMA AND NKYLOH 
NSC FOR JMELINE 
EUCOM FOR POLA/J3/J4/J5 
BRUSSELS FOR USAID PLERNER 
NEW YORK FOR TMALY 
SECDEF FOR SOLIC/PKHA, USDP/J3 
JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC FOR J3/J4/J5 
HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE FOR J3/J5 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID, AEMR, ASEC, MASS, ECON, KMDR, KPAO, OIIP, OPRC, PGOV, PREL, PK, Earthquake, Earthquake: USAID/DART Situation Report 
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN - EARTHQUAKE:  USAID/DART SITUATION REPORT 
 #8 
 
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Summary 
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1.  As of October 25, the death toll in Pakistan reached 
53,000, and the total affected population was between 2.7 
and 2.8 million people.  Shelter continues to be the primary 
need of those affected by the earthquake.  The Government of 
Pakistan (GOP) continues to monitor the water and sanitation 
sector, and the construction of latrines recently increased. 
The U.N. World Health Organization (WHO) reported no 
significant increase in the spread of communicable diseases. 
The GOP continues to work with non-governmental 
organizations (NGOs) to establish additional internally 
displaced persons (IDP) camps.  The U.N. camp management and 
protection clusters are concerned with the registration of 
IDPs in camps.  End summary. 
 
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Shelter 
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2.  As of October 25, the total affected population was 
between 2.7 and 2.8 million people, according to the U.N. 
Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) 
and the International Organization for Migration (IOM). 
Approximately 600,000 tents are needed to shelter a 
population of this size.  To date, the international 
community and the GOP have each delivered approximately 
60,000 tents to affected populations.  With an estimated 
180,000 additional tents in the consolidated pipeline, the 
total number of tents delivered and in the pipeline to date 
is 300,000. 
 
3.  A shortfall of approximately 300,000 tents exists.  Of 
this number, OCHA estimates the need for quote shelter 
solutions end quote to be between 45,000 and 210,000. 
Approximately 220,000 to 1,000,000 people will likely not 
receive shelter assistance from the international relief 
effort. 
 
4.  On October 25, the USAID Disaster Assistance Response 
Team (USAID/DART) Shelter and Settlements Advisor (SSA) and 
the USAID/Pakistan Mission Director met with the GOP 
Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Task Force to discuss 
housing reconstruction.  Meeting participants discussed the 
importance of linking relief and reconstruction efforts 
through emphasis on transitional shelter, and the 
significant potential that shelter sector investments have 
for generating livelihoods. 
 
5.  Also on October 25, the USAID/DART SSA, USAID Pakistan 
Mission Director, and USAID/DART Team Leader met with the 
GOP Relief Task Force to discuss tent supply and demand 
issues.  The USAID representatives cautioned that over- 
reliance on tents might preclude the GOP and international 
community from addressing other, more appropriate means of 
shelter.  The USAID/DART SSA provided meeting participants 
with details on other shelter interventions, including quote 
one dry room end quote and host/guest family support 
options. 
 
6.  The USAID/DART Deputy Team Leader attended a meeting 
with OCHA and IOM on October 25.  Meeting participants noted 
that to date, hosting and spontaneous camps are accounting 
for much, if not most, of the accommodations of affected 
populations.  This trend will likely continue.  Water and 
sanitation problems are becoming hazards in spontaneous 
camps. 
 
7.  Many NGOs providing shelter are focusing on rural 
communities and developing different toolkit models.  They 
acknowledge that they will not be able to provide large 
quantities of supplies in this short time period and are 
consequently working to develop alternate models of 
supplying winterized housing. 
 
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Water and Sanitation 
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8.  On October 24, the Pakistan Council of Research in Water 
Resources (PCRWR), the research center of the Pakistan 
Ministry of Science and Technology, announced that the 
condition of drinking water in the earthquake-hit areas of 
Abbottabad and Mansehra in the North-West Frontier Province 
(NWFP) is satisfactory, but the drinking water in Pakistani- 
administered Kashmir is not as good.  The PCRWR dispatched 
10 field teams to Abbottabad, Mansehra, Balakot, Batagram, 
Rawlakot, Muzaffarabad, and Bagh to assess the drinking 
water situation.  These teams found that the condition of 
the drinking water in Pakistsani-administered Kashmir had 
deteriorated to a large extent. 
 
9.  In Muzaffarabad, the PCRWR teams continue to monitor 
water resources, rehabilitation of water supply structures, 
and the installation of two filtration plans with a capacity 
of 48,000 liters of water per day.  Approximately 90 percent 
of the city's water mains are functioning.  Remaining leaks 
in the city's water mains will be repaired by next week. 
 
10.  According to the USAID/ART FO, latrine construction in 
IDP settlements has increased with the arrival of plastic 
latrine slabs.  Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF)-Holland is 
initiating a concrete latrine slab reconstruction program. 
 
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Health 
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11.  The USAID/DART FO reported that according to WHO, the 
vaccination campaign in Muzaffarabad is proceeding very 
well.  Having nearly completed vaccinations in the 
Muzaffarabad area, 19 two-person teams have expanded their 
operations to rural areas. 
 
12.  The USAID/DART FO reported that Oxfam has established 
hygiene promotion committees in each IDP settlement. 
Islamic Relief has distributed 490 hygiene kits in 
settlements. 
 
13.  According to the USAID/DART FO, WHO has reported no 
significant increase in communicable diseases in the 
earthquake-affected region.  After observing a slight 
increase in scabies in IDP settlements, WHO requested that 
hygiene promotion teams and clinical programs include 
scabies prevention in their hygiene promotion programs. 
 
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Food and Nutrition 
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14.  A U.S. Embassy/Pakistan representative reported that in 
the October 24 food cluster group meeting, the U.N. High 
Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) stated that in almost all 
of their camps, the Pakistani military has provided most of 
the food.  Participants in the October 24 U.N. food cluster 
meeting noted that Save the Children is feeding 
approximately 150 patients and staff in the Batagram field 
hospital.  Meeting participants agreed that obtaining 
shelter is a more pressing problem than obtaining clean 
drinking water. 
 
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Logistics 
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15.  A representative of the U.S. Embassy/Pakistan reported 
that in the October 24 U.N. general coordination meeting, 
the U.N. logistics cluster group discussed the need to 
create a rough plan for cargo distribution in affected 
areas.  The U.N. Joint Logistics Center (JLC) is the point 
of contact for air operations.  As such, the JLC is 
responsible for comparing requests by NGOs for air shipments 
to the priority needs list and validating requests.  The 
U.N. logistics cluster group will present its six-week 
operations plan at the October 27 coordination meeting.  At 
present, however, the JLC is not fully active in its role as 
the point of contact for air operations, and USAID/DART 
representatives continue to work at coordinating air 
operations. 
 
16.  According to the JLC, in the past week, JLC staff 
deployed to the airport operation have more than doubled, 
aided by the seconding of two GOP liaison officers.  In the 
next week to ten days, the cargo-carrying capacity of the 
combined Pakistani and international rotary wing fleet 
deployed to the emergency is likely to double with the 
arrival of heavy lift military helicopters. 
 
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National Recovery Plan 
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17.  The USAID/DART U.N. Liaison Officer (UNLO) reported 
that in the October 24 U.N. general coordination meeting, 
participants stated that President Pervez Musharraf will 
convene a National Recovery Plan conference on November 18 
in Islamabad.  The World Bank and the Asian Development 
Bank, joined by the G7, are the main partners in the 
development of this plan, under the direction of the GOP. 
In the first week of November, President Musharraf will 
receive a draft document of this plan. 
 
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U.N. Flash Appeal 
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18.  In the October 25 U.N. coordination meeting, 
participants discussed the revision to the U.N. Flash 
Appeal, to be introduced on October 28 in Geneva.  The 
revised appeal will be for USD 500 million.  A major target 
in the revised appeal will be sustained helicopter 
operations during the winter months. 
 
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Damage Assessments 
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19.  The USAID/DART UNLO reported that in a U.N. 
coordination meeting on October 25, participants stated that 
earthquake modeling has established three levels for use in 
damage estimates: high, medium, and low.  High impact areas 
include the cities of Shangla, Batagram, Lari, Balakot, 
Mansehra, Muzaffarabad, Abbottabad, Bagh, Rawalakot, Kahuta, 
and Punch.  Medium impact areas include the cities of 
Bathela, Topi, Indus, Tarbela Dam, Haripur, Wah, and 
Islamabad.  Low impact areas include Risalpu, Kamra, 
Nowshera, Mardan, Indus, and Campellpore.  Meeting 
participants noted that route 25 from Islamabad to 
Muzaffarabad route 35 from Wah to Shangla are both open. 
 
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IDP Movements, Camps, and Camp Management 
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20.  According to the USAID/DART FO, NGOs are reporting that 
IDP movement is limited because many of the roads in 
affected areas are closed.  At this point, it appears that 
people prefer to stay closer to their homes rather than 
migrate to cities.  The international community is concerned 
that if supplies do not reach the most vulnerable, this 
population will begin migrating in the coming weeks. 
 
21.  At present, 19 unregistered IDP camps are located in 
Muzaffarabad.  Almustafa, a local NGO, is constructing new 
camps and working with the GOP to move IDPs in unregistered 
camps to the camps under construction.  In Thori Park, one 
of the new camps, this NGO plans to provide space and 
supporting infrastructure for at least 600 tents.  Numerous 
unresolved issues about security, water and sanitation, and 
other aspects of the camps characterize the plan for Thori 
Park.  UNHCR is satisfied with this camp, which will house 
up to 1,500 tents, and would like to set up additional camps 
with this NGO.  Many other NGOs, however, have expressed 
concerns with the camp setup, noting that mega camps are not 
the correct solution for this environment. 
 
22.  According to the USAID/DART UNLO, participants in the 
October 25 U.N. coordination meeting reported that seven 
camps have been established in Mansehra and one in 
Muzaffarabad.  The UNHCR was absent from the meeting, and 
other meeting participants were unable to confirm the 
population present in each camp. 
 
23.  The U.N. camp management and protection clusters are 
concerned with the registration of IDPs in camps.  UNHCR 
plans to register IDPs in the camps it is administering and 
is considering establishing registration for other camps. 
 
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Children 
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24.  The international community has asked those who find 
unaccompanied children in earthquake-affected areas to 
contact the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) 
immediately.  If children (under the age of 18) in affected 
areas are transported to other areas, a relative should 
accompany the children when possible. 
 
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USAID/DART Activities 
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25.  The USAID/DART has requested 30,000 blankets for those 
affected by the earthquake.  The USAID/OFDA warehouse in 
Dubai will supply these blankets.  Pending aircraft 
availability, the blankets will be delivered to Islamabad 
October 30. 
 
26.  Prior to October 24, the USAID/DART had facilitated the 
transport of 1,150 rolls of plastic sheeting.  On October 
24, the USAID/DART facilitated the first of six additional 
transports of rolls of plastic sheeting.  On October 24 and 
October 25, two shipments containing a total of 1,660 rolls 
of plastic, or enough for 8,300 families, arrived in 
Islamabad.  The first shipment of 820 rolls of plastic 
sheeting went to GOAL for distribution, and ACTED will 
distribute the second shipment of 840 rolls.  On October 26, 
a USAID flight carrying 840 rolls of plastic sheeting, 
provided to Catholic Relief Services (CRS) for distribution, 
arrived in Islamabad.  The USAID/DART expects three 
additional flights containing plastic sheeting to arrive 
within the week. 
 
 
 
 
CROCKER