US embassy cable - 05SANSALVADOR2929

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 002929 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2015 
TAGS: ES, PGOV, PREL, ELECTIONS 2006 
SUBJECT: ARENA'S SAN SALVADOR MAYORAL CANDIDATE LEADS 
 
REF: A. SAN SALVADOR 843 
 
     B. SAN SALVADOR 1823 
 
Classified By: DCM Michael A. Butler, Reason 1.4 (d) 
 
1. (C)  SUMMARY:  With little more than four months to go 
until the March 2006 municipal and Legislative Assembly 
elections, the Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) party 
is making a serious effort at regaining the San Salvador 
mayoralty, held by the left for nearly a decade.  A San 
Salvador leading daily's October poll showed an almost 
two-to-one inclination among respondents to vote for ARENA, 
rather than the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front 
(FMLN).  However, name recognition of both parties' mayoral 
candidates is low among voters, and ARENA's weak candidate 
will have an uphill battle wresting control of the FMLN's 
metropolitan stronghold.  There is a very strong possibility 
that the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), other minor left 
parties, and the Revolutionary Democratic Front (FDR) will 
run a strong coalition candidate in San Salvador, which will 
likely split the leftist vote, thus working to ARENA's 
advantage.  Since the undecided vote is close to 50 percent 
at this point, it is quite too early to determine whether the 
ARENA candidate will be able to maintain his present lead. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (SBU)  A poll publicized October 26 by San Salvador 
leading daily La Prensa Grafica showed that 32.8 percent of 
voters favor ARENA to run the San Salvador city hall, 
compared with 18.0 percent for the FMLN; 33.7 percent of the 
500 subjects interviewed either offered no response, or 
declined to reveal their preference.  ARENA has not held San 
Salvador city hall since a leftist coalition of the FMLN, 
Democratic Convergence (CD), and Unity Movement (MU) carried 
Hector Silva to victory in 1997 over ARENA.  Silva ran as the 
FMLN's candidate in 2000 and won reelection handily by 17 
percent of the vote.  In 2002, Silva decided not to pursue 
reelection in 2003, opting instead to head a commission on 
healthcare reform in the wake of the nation's bitter ISSS 
(public healthcare system) strike; differences in views 
regarding the ISSS crisis soon led to his departure from the 
FMLN.  Elected in 2003, incumbent FMLN San Salvador Mayor 
Carlos Rivas Zamora ran afoul of party hardliners controlled 
by Schafik Handal, and has since resigned from the party (see 
ref. A).  Handal picked orthodox ally Violeta Menjivar to be 
the Front's 2006 candidate, but, notwithstanding recent 
intensive political training in Cuba, Menjivar displays 
little charisma, warmth, or political savvy, and remains 
unknown to approximately half of prospective San Salvador 
voters, as does her ARENA opponent Rodrigo Samayo. 
 
3. (SBU)  A loose center-left coalition that will apparently 
include moderate FMLN defectors' new Revolutionary Democratic 
Front (FDR), the CDU, PDC, and others will likely run their 
own candidate this time around, perhaps either Hector Silva 
or Carlos Rivas Zamora, further weakening the FMLN's bid by 
diluting the leftist vote.  The prospect of either ex-mayor's 
candidacy must give the FMLN pause, inasmuch as both enjoy 
high name recognition and approval ratings of approximately 
60 percent, according to this same poll.  It is conceivable 
that the FDR coalition candidate could beat the FMLN 
candidate for second place.  An October 27 editorial cartoon 
shows two FMLN activists reading the newspaper and talking; 
one says, "The good news is that the best-rated candidates 
were ours".  The second asks, "And the bad news?", to which 
the first responds, "That they WERE ours." 
 
3. (C)  COMMENT:  San Salvador's vexing problems of 
overpopulation, poverty, and crime, together with its 
obsolete and crumbling infrastructure, would appear to make 
city hall a political trophy of questionable value.  Informal 
street vendors make parts of the city center impassable to 
vehicular traffic; violent riots have resulted from efforts 
to move them to less problematical locations.  Intransigent 
and well-organized municipal workers remain a perennial 
headache to city administrators, and are widely believed to 
take orders from FMLN hardliners.  Against this backdrop, 
some believe that ARENA's selection of the lackluster Rodrigo 
Samayoa (see ref. B), when more dynamic candidates were 
available, may have signaled that ARENA is not that 
interested in winning the mayoralty and being forced to take 
on the capital's seemingly-insoluble challenges.  Given the 
state of disarray within the FMLN, the likely entrance of a 
strong FDR coalition candidate, and city residents' readiness 
for change, May 13, 2006 may nonetheless dawn to find ARENA 
with city hall, like some unwanted baby on the doorstep. 
Barclay