US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4427

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 004427 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, IZ, Elections, Shia Islamists 
SUBJECT: SHIA ISLAMIST COALITION APPEARS SEALED AS 
NEGOTIATIONS HEAD INTO FINAL NIGHT 
 
 
Classified By: Charge D'Affaires David Satterfield. 
Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: Shia leaders have reportedly formed a 
grand coalition but remained holed up in negotiations 
on the evening before the October 28 election 
registration deadline.  The Sadrist trend has 
reportedly significantly expanded its clout in the 
coalition, as has the Badr Organization.  There is 
still no clear consensus on the coalition's preferred 
candidate for prime minister and one may not emerge 
until after the elections.  Disagreements over 
candidates and placement on the lists could yet undo 
the agreement, but most leaders appeared confident of 
its prospects heading into the evening. END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) Shia coalition spokesman Abbas al-Bayati, 
leader of the Islamic Turkmen Union, told al-Jazeera 
October 27 that a final compromise had given Sadrists 
a larger voice in the coalition and sealed their 
participation in a joint slate.  Sadrist TNA member 
Baha al-Araji confirmed this decision publicly.  The 
list brings together the Sadrists, SCIRI, Da'wa Party, 
Fadila (Islamic Virtue) Party, and a host of 
independents and smaller entities. 
 
3. (C) Other contacts indicate that the broad outline 
of the coalition has been settled even as the meetings 
continue over individual names.  Deputy President Adel 
Abdel Mehdi told Charge midday October 27 that Muqtada 
Sadr had agreed to sign a common policy platform with 
the other Shia Islamist parties.  He acknowledged that 
candidate names still had to be sorted out for each 
province.  Hasan Tu'ma, a Sadrist parliamentarian 
negotiating on behalf of Muqtada, told PolFSN on 
October 27 that Muqtada would receive 20 names 
nationwide.  However, independent Shia Islamist 
parliamentarian Salama al-Khafaji told PolFSN that 
final candidate lists would put the Sadrists on par 
with SCIRI, with some 30 candidates each.  Meanwhile 
the Da'wa Party will receive 29 slots, a step below 
its proportional representation in the last elections. 
Even as the parties hammer out their final candidate 
lists, there does not appear to be a consensus over 
the coalition's pick for prime minister.  SCIRI is 
promoting Adil Abd al-Mehdi, while Da'wa is pushing 
Ibrahim al-Ja'afari.  (Ahmad Chalabi has not yet 
officially signed on with the coalition and as of 
midday October 27 was still carefully trying to 
arrange his own coalition, perhaps with Sadrists 
himself.)  Meanwhile, Fadhila Party leader Nadim al- 
Jabiri is also reportedly pushing for guarantees of a 
senior minister, Deputy Prime Minister, or Vice 
President slot. 
 
4. (C) COMMENT: The negotiations seem to have led to 
the rise of some of the most troublesome elements of 
the Shia slate.  The Badr Organization is reportedly 
achieving stronger representation and the Sadrists are 
in ascendance as the leading Shia party in Iraq.  Some 
politicians who call themselves Sadrists may yet 
attempt to run a separate slate alongside the 
coalition to blur their place in the political 
process.  In any event, the rise of another Shia 
coalition will likely push Sunni Arabs and Kurds to 
reinforce their own communities' lists.  We will have 
a clearer picture on the exact shape of the list when 
the coalition formally registers on October 28. 
 
 
Satterfield