US embassy cable - 05HELSINKI1146

C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 001146 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, KDEM, EAID, BO, FI, PROG, EUN 
SUBJECT: FINLAND SUPPORTIVE OF COORDINATED U.S-EU EFFORTS 
IN BELARUS 
 
REF: STATE 188900 
 
Classified By: PolChief Gregory Thome, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: The GOF welcomes U.S. efforts to coordinate a 
robust Belarus strategy with EU partners.  It views a strong 
message to Lukashenko as desirable and welcomes democracy 
promotion and outreach to civil society.  However, the GOF 
cautions that the U.S. and EU must commit for the long-term 
because, over the near term, Lukashenko is likely to stay in 
power and already-beleagured opposition groups and civil 
society may face violence in the run-up to next year's 
election.  Finland understands it must take on a leadership 
role regarding Belarus, given the fact that elections will 
take place there during Finland's EU presidency.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) PolChief delivered reftel points to Tuula Yrjola, 
Counselor in the Finnish MFA's Unit for Ukraine, Belarus and 
Moldova.  Yrjola welcomed U.S. efforts to initiate a robust 
Belarus strategy in coordination with EU partners, calling 
coordination the best chance for promoting change in a very 
difficult country.  Yrjola agreed on the importance of a 
tough message delivered directly to Lukeshenko.  She 
expressed pessimism that he would be moved by a demand that 
he not run in the upcoming election; however, she agreed that 
our statements to him should emphasize that last year's 
referendum was "illegal;" that we are deeply disturbed by the 
deteriorating human rights situation and by Lukeshenko's 
crackdown on the opposition; and that we are "not going away" 
on these issues and are prepared to maintain pressure on him 
as long as abuses continue and reform is ignored. 
 
3. (C) Yrjola did express some concern regarding the 
uniformity of the overall U.S.-EU joint policy of high-level 
contacts with the GOB.  Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, for 
example, have immediate needs to discuss pressing issues such 
as the environment and border security with the GOB, and they 
often cannot secure cooperation unless these are addressed on 
a ministerial level.  For its part, the GOF is willing to be 
flexible regarding these member states' bilateral contacts, 
but will continue to staunchly support the overall EU policy 
proscribing high level contact.  The GOF, Yrjola added, also 
believes that the EU should bolster its no-contact policy by 
toughening visa sanctions and travel restrictions against 
members of the Lukeshenko government, especially if it 
engages in any form of anti-opposition violence. 
 
4. (C) Yrjola also welcomed efforts to build democracy and 
reach out to the opposition and civil society.  She 
highlighted our joint radio outreach as a very positive step, 
adding that she hoped Poland would soon add programming of 
its own to complement the Deutsch Welle broadcasts.  Finland 
is also preparing to make a bilateral donation of Euros 
100,000 to the European Humanities University currently "in 
exile" in Lithuania until a larger EU grant through the 
Nordic Council kicks in during January, Yrjola noted. 
However, she cautioned that direct outreach to NGOs and 
political parties inside Belarus would remain problematic. 
Neither is strong, Yrjola said, and both face the grim 
prospect of Lukeshenko's using violence to crush them as the 
elections approach.  She was also not enthusiastic about some 
EU members' willingness to "hand bagfuls of money" to the 
opposition or civil society, noting that it was often 
difficult to determine exactly who was running what NGOs and 
in whose hands the funds were actually ending up.  (Yrjola 
opined that the soon-to-be-opened EU aid office in Minsk will 
go a long way toward ensuring that no assistance ends up in 
the hands of "former KGB officers masquerading as heads of 
NGOs.") 
 
5. (C) Comment: The Finns understand that, with Belarussian 
elections scheduled to take place during their EU presidency, 
they must take a leadership role.  They have no illusions 
about the difficulties we face on Belarus, but are clearly 
willing to adopt long-term strategies and stick with them. 
End Comment. 
HYATT