US embassy cable - 05DUBLIN1330

UNCLAS DUBLIN 001330 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PBTS, EI 
SUBJECT: FIANNA FAIL, LOOKING TO THE FUTURE, BUT 
OVERSHADOWED BY THE PAST 
 
 
1. Summary:  Fianna Fail held its annual conference 
 
 
(Ard Fheis) in Killarney, October 21-22, where party 
leaders focused on rallying the rank-and-file ahead of 
the general elections, expected in May 2007.  The 
party has lost ground in recent months, and this was 
their opportunity to regain it.  Fianna Fail attempted 
to reclaim the mantle of being the "true republican 
party" from Sinn Fein, by announcing the reinstatement 
of the annual military parade marking the Easter 
Rising of 1916, along with a public holiday to mark 
the event. It also announced its intention to recruit 
members in Northern Ireland, thereby challenging Sinn 
Fein's claim to being the only all-Ireland party.  The 
party took every opportunity to attack the opposition 
parties and their policies, while putting forward very 
few of their own.  Delegates agreed on a number of 
motions aimed at increasing the number of women 
involved in decision-making within the party. 
Proceedings were overshadowed by the sudden death of 
Liam Lawlor, a former Fianna Fail member of 
Parliament, subduing the atmosphere of the conference. 
End summary. 
 
 
Fianna Fail - The Republican party 
---------------------------------- 
 
2.   In an attempt to reclaim from Sinn Fein the 
mantle of "the true republican party", party president 
and Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern, in his 
opening address to the conference, announced the 
reinstatement of the 1916 Easter Parade.  The military 
parade, discontinued in 1970 following the outbreak of 
violence in Northern Ireland in 1969, will pass the 
General Post Office (GPO), headquarters of the rising, 
next year on the 90th anniversary of the 1916 rising. 
Rejecting the IRA's assertation that they are the 
successors to the volunteers of 1916, Ahern said, to 
enthusiastic applause, that the Defense Forces are 
"the only legitimate army of the Irish People and the 
true successors of the volunteers." 
 
3.   Ahern also announced the establishment of a 1916 
Centenary Committee to plan a major celebration of the 
100th anniversary of the rising.  Delegates also 
passed a motion to commemorate Easter 1916 by 
declaring April 24 a public holiday (the date on which 
the rising took place in 1916).  A motion, calling on 
the National Executive to initiate an active 
recruitment campaign for members in Northern Ireland, 
also passed comfortably, although it was unclear if 
the party intends to compete in elections in Northern 
Ireland in the near future.  Delegates agreed, as 
members of the "only true Irish republican movement", 
not to refer to the Provisional Movement of Sinn Fein 
and IRA as republicans. (Note: As elections approach, 
there is a rush to claim title to "republicanism".  In 
addition to Fianna Fail's efforts, Fine Gael, the 
largest opposition party, staged a major commemoration 
of Michael Collins' death to highlight that it is the 
legitimate heir to Collins' movement.) 
 
 
Need to gain ground 
------------------- 
 
4.   Fianna Fail has lost ground to the opposition 
parties in recent months. The public perception is 
that the government has been wasteful in a number of 
public service projects, the cost of living is rising, 
and the health service requires reform.  Party leaders 
know that they face a challenge to recover public 
confidence and must use the next 18 months or so to 
convince the public once more that they should be 
trusted to run the country after the next election. 
Successive speakers listed the positive changes 
brought about during the party's last eight years in 
government, attacked the record of the last opposition 
government (1994-97) and criticized the opposition 
parties and their policies, or lack thereof. 
Ironically, the party put forward few concrete 
proposals of their own.  Major policy initiatives will 
be announced at a later date.  Finance Minister Brian 
Cowen is expected to introduce a substantial childcare 
package in his budget on December 7, while a ten-year 
plan on transport will be presented later this month. 
 
 
Overshadowed by the past 
------------------------ 
 
5.   Two former, and controversial, members of the 
party overshadowed much of the Ard Fheis.  News of the 
 
death of Liam Lawlor, a former member of parliament, 
 
 
implicated in a number of planning scandals, filtered 
through on the second day of the conference.  The 
circumstances of his death, in a car crash in Moscow, 
dominated conversations.  The Ard Fheis voted to send 
"best wishes" to another former member, the 
controversial, former Taoiseach, Charles Haughey.  As 
the party enters its 80th year, it emphatically voted 
to extend best wishes to its former leader, currently 
suffering from cancer, in his 80th year.  Both former 
TD's may have been shunned by the party in recent 
years, but as one speaker put it, "Fianna Fail is a 
family, and blood is thicker than water." 
 
 
Getting the balance right 
------------------------- 
 
6.   The focus of much of the debate at the Ard Fheis 
was on party organization.  Fianna Fail cited 2005 as 
the "Year of Organization", a year in which the party 
would get its house in order, in preparation for the 
next general election.  Internally, several members of 
the party have been critical of the lack of female 
participation, particularly at representational level. 
The National Executive put forward a number of motions 
to address this.  Despite opposition to some of the 
motions, on the grounds that candidates should be 
chosen for their abilities, rather than their gender, 
a passionate speech by Finance Minister Brian Cowen 
convinced sufficient voters to pass them comfortably. 
He admitted the policy was not ideal, but was an 
improvement on the status quo.  Delegates endorsed the 
move to ensure ten of the twenty delegates elected by 
the Ard Fheis to the National Executive are women. 
Delegates also set a target of having women make up 
one-third of election candidates by 2014, a policy to 
be reviewed in 2009. 
 
 
A leader in waiting? 
--------------------- 
 
7.   The leadership of Fianna Fail is not an issue, 
for now.  In Bertie Ahern, the party has a strong and 
popular leader who, unusually for Fianna Fail, enjoys 
the support of the vast majority of the party.  It is 
Ahern's stated aim to retire from politics at the age 
of 60.  Ideally the 54-year-old would like to lead his 
party into government for a third successive term in 
2007, before handing over to his preferred successor, 
Minister for Finance Brian Cowen.  Cowen's 
performances over the weekend suggested he was indeed 
a leader in waiting.  From his passionate speech 
encouraging delegates to accept gender balance, his 
speech outlining the economic successes under Fianna 
Fail, to his introduction of the party leader for his 
keynote address, Cowen struck a chord with delegates. 
A leadership contest is a long way off, but on these 
performances, Cowen will be difficult to beat. 
 
 
Leaders Address 
--------------- 
 
8.   The party leader's half-hour keynote speech 
usually defines the mood and direction of an Ard 
Fheis.  Bertie Ahern's keynote address to the 
conference was designed to win back some of the trust 
and support lost over recent months, particularly in 
relation to the management of the public sector. 
Ahern said he was focused on getting value for money 
from the investments being made in the public service. 
He will enter into a new round of social partnership 
talks, he said, seeking reform and value for money. 
Ahern conceded that reform was needed in the health 
service, but pledged that he and Minister for Health 
Mary Harney were committed to improve every aspect of 
the health service.  His speech, however, lacked a 
major theme, and there were no major initiatives 
announced.  Instead, Ahern chose to emphasize the 
achievements of his government. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.   The general election campaign is well under way. 
Fianna Fail accepts that some losses are inevitable. 
The party attempted to minimize losses to Sinn Fein 
(its main competitor for votes in many constituencies) 
by retaking ownership of the title of the Republican 
party.  Fine Gael and Labour's record in government, 
 
and their lack of coherent policies, were attacked at 
 
 
every opportunity.  With general elections 18 months 
away, Fianna Fail has time on its side, and there are 
a number of factors which may give them the boost they 
need.  The Government will announce major changes in 
how childcare is organized; the Tanaiste's health 
service reforms will begin; roads will be built and 
Special Savings Incentive Accounts (SSIA's) will have 
matured (SSIA's are a Government scheme to encourage 
people to save, where savers will get euro 1.27 per 
month for every euro 5.08 they save over a minimum of 
5 years).  These developments, the party believes, 
will create a feel-good factor that will bring Fianna 
Fail back to power for a third successive term. 
 
KENNY