US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4357

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004357 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W, INR/EAP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2025 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, TW 
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENESETTER: CHIAYI CITY 
 
REF: TAIPEI 4158 
 
Classified By: AIT ACTING DIRECTOR DAVID J. KEEGAN, REASON(S):  1.4 (B/ 
D) 
 
 1. SUMMARY.  (C) CHIAYI CITY IS MORE THAN JUST ECONOMICALLY 
DEPRESSED THESE DAYS.  A FUNEREAL GLOOM LOOMS OVER THE DPP'S 
TINY CITY OFFICE, AND THE MERE SUGGESTION THAT PRESIDENT CHEN 
SHUI-BIAN MIGHT BE BROUGHT INTO TO ROUSE THE PARTY FAITHFUL 
ON BEHALF OF MAYORAL CANDIDATE CHEN LI-CHEN SENDS GHOSTLY 
CHILLS THROUGH THE AIR.  THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE LARGE, 
WELL-LIT KMT OFFICES, ALTHOUGH STILL GUARDEDLY OPTIMISTIC, 
WAS ALL BUSINESS WITH TELEPHONE CAMPAIGN ACTIVITY ON THE 
FIRST FLOOR FULLY STAFFED AND OPERATIONAL.  ODDLY, FOR THIS 
MAYORAL RACE, CHIAYI CITY'S DPP IS MORE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT A 
VISIT FROM KMT CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU THAN IS THE KMT ITSELF. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C)  CLOSED UP SHOPS, A NEAR COMPLETE LACK OF CAMPAIGN 
POSTERS OR BILLBOARDS AND A SENSE OF DESPAIR SUMS UP WHAT IS 
LEFT OF CAMPAIGN ENTHUSIASM IN WHAT WAS ONCE KNOWN AS 
TAIWAN'S "CRADLE OF DEMOCRACY."  CHIAYI CITY WAS GOVERNED FOR 
DECADES BY INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES, PRIMARILY A MOTHER AND 
SISTERS FROM THE CURRENTLY INACTIVE FACTION KNOWN AS "HSU 
CHIA PAN."  THE FACTION SUPPORTED THE NOW-DPP CANDIDATE, 
INCUMBENT CHIAYI CITY MAYOR CHEN LI-CHEN, IN THE LAST MAYORAL 
ELECTION WHEN CHEN RAN AS AN INDEPENDENT. THE "HSU CHIA BAN" 
LEADER, CHANG PO-YA (FORMER CHIAYI CITY MAYOR) NOW LEADS A 
SUB-GROUP OF NON-PARTISAN LEGISLATORS, A FACT THAT TIES HER 
HANDS SO THAT SHE CANNOT COME OUT IN SUPPORT OF A DPP 
CANDIDATE.  THIS TIME THE FACTION CANNOT AND WILL NOT EVEN 
TRY TO PRODUCE VOTES FOR THIS ELECTION. 
 
3.  (C)  BESIDES A LOCAL ECONOMY IN TATTERS, DPP OFFICIALS 
TOLD AIT/K THAT THERE IS NO MORE ENTHUSIASM FOR THE DPP IN 
CHIAYI CITY AND THAT LOCALS ARE SICK AND TIRED OF THE 
DISPUTES, CORRUPTION AND CHAOS THAT NOW SURROUNDS THE ONCE 
POPULAR PARTY.  WITH JUST A FEW WEEKS TO THE ELECTION, NO ONE 
AT THE CITY'S DPP OFFICE HARBORS ANY HOPE THAT PRESIDENT CHEN 
CAN PULL THE PARTY BACK TOGETHER IN TIME TO KEEP THE DPP 
INCUMBENT MAYOR IN OFFICE.  THE VERY SUGGESTION THAT "A BIAN" 
(PRESIDENT CHEN) OR ANY OTHER NATIONAL DPP FIGURE MIGHT COME 
TO CAMPAIGN FOR THE DPP CANDIDATE WAS GREETED WITH GRIMACES. 
 DPP CITY OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT BARELY 800 PEOPLE TURNED UP 
TO HELP OPEN CANDIDATE CHEN'S CAMPAIGN OFFICE.  THERE SIMPLY, 
THEY SAID, IS "NOTHING TO CELEBRATE." 
 
4.  (C)  UNLIKE ANY OTHER CITY OR COUNTY YET VISITED BY 
AIT/K, IN CHIAYI THE DPP AND THE KMT CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES ARE 
COMPLETELY REVERSED.  WHEREAS MOST KMT OFFICES IN THE SOUTH 
ARE EMPHASIZING THE 3-IN-1 ELECTIONS AS A BATTLE BETWEEN 
PARTIES AND A PRE-CURSOR TO THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, 
IN CHIAYI CITY THE KMT IS USING A DPP STRATEGY OF RUNNING ON 
THE STRENGTH OF ITS CANDIDATE'S PERSONALITY.  THE DPP, ON THE 
OTHER HAND, IS RUNNING ON THE "BEN TU" (LOCALISM) ISSUE BY 
TRYING TO CONVINCE VOTERS THIS IS A "PARTY TO PARTY" FIGHT 
THAT CAN BE WON ONLY IF THE VOTERS SUPPORT THE DPP.  WHEN 
ASKED WHY IT ISN'T EMPHASIZING ITS CANDIDATE, DPP OFFICIALS 
DESCRIBED CANDIDATE CHEN AS SOMEONE POPULARLY KNOWN AS HAVING 
A VERY "BAD TEMPER." 
 
5.  (C)  THE ODDEST HOPE STATED BY DPP OFFICIALS FOR THIS 
ELECTION IS THEIR HOPE THAT KMT'S CHAIRMAN MA WILL COME TO 
CHIAYI CITY TO  CAMPAIGN FOR KMT CANDIDATE HUANG MING-HUI, A 
HIGHLY POPULAR INCUMBENT LEGISLATIVE YUAN MEMBER AND NATIVE 
OF CHIAYI CITY WHO HAS DEEP GRASSROOTS SUPPORT HERE DEVELOPED 
THROUGH HER LONG-STANDING AND EXCELLENT SERVICES TO 
CONSTITUENTS.  THE DPP BELIEVES A VISIT BY MA, CLOSE TO THE 
VOTING DATE OF DECEMBER 3, WILL STIR THE POT ENOUGH TO RILE 
DPP SUPPORTERS TO BOTHER TO VOTE ON ELECTION DAY.  IN FACT, 
DPP OFFICIALS THINK A PERSONAL APPEARANCE BY KMT CHAIRMAN MAY 
BE THE ONLY THING THAT CAN INSPIRE A SENSE OF "CRISIS" LARGE 
ENOUGH TO SLAP DPP SUPPORTERS OUT OF THEIR DEPRESSION.  IF "A 
BIAN" CAN'T FIX THINGS OR THEY CAN'T FIND SOMETHING TO SLAP 
DPP VOTERS OUT OF THE FUNK CREATED BY A CONFLUENCE OF 
UNEMPLOYMENT, POOR FUTURE ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, DISGUST WITH 
THE DPP AND DISDAIN FOR THE DPP CANDIDATE, THEY FEAR LOW 
VOTER TURNOUT CERTAINLY WILL COST THEM THE ELECTION. 
 
6. (C)  COMMENT:  MINUS A MIRACLE, NOTHING WILL LIFT THE 
GLOOM FROM THE DPP'S PERCEPTION THAT THE ELECTION IS ALREADY 
LOST.  THE DEPRESSION AMONG DPP OFFICIALS, WHO AREN'T EVEN 
BOTHERING TO PUT ON A CHEERFUL FACE IN HOPES OF GENERATING 
ENTHUSIASM FOR THEIR CANDIDATE, IS PALPABLE.  STILL, IN AN 
AREA WITH TRADITIONALLY PRO-GREEN SENTIMENTS, THE KMT IS WISE 
TO CAMPAIGN HARD AND REMAIN CAUTIOUS UNTIL THE LAST VOTE IS 
CAST.  END COMMENT. 
 
KEEGAN 
KEEGAN