US embassy cable - 05WARSAW3700

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 003700 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PL, Polish Elections 
SUBJECT: POLISH GOVERNMENT COALITION TALKS BREAK DOWN 
 
REF: WARSAW 3661 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Mary T. Curtin, reasons 1.4b,d 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Coalition negotiations between Law and 
Justice (PiS) and Civic Platform (PO) collapsed October 26 
following PiS's decision to put forward its own candidate for 
parliamentary speaker, who was quickly elected with the 
support of radical opposition parties. PiS and PO leaders 
were unable to bridge the differences between the two 
center-right parties, as PO clung to its demands for shared 
control of Polish internal security and resisted PiS's 
efforts to veto PO's candidate for parliamentary speaker.  PO 
leader Donald Tusk declared immediately after the 
parliamentary leadership vote that no further discussions 
were possible with PiS, even as PM-designate Kazimierz 
Marcinkiewicz (PiS) expressed hope that PO could be brought 
back to the table.  The deadlock between the two parties 
stems from PO's ambivalence about its junior position 
(including consideration that it might be better off in 
opposition) and PiS's determination to thoroughly reform the 
government (establishing a more fully de-communized "Fourth 
Republic").  Despite PO allegations that PiS has effectively 
cast its lot with radical parties such as the populist 
Self-Defense (SO) and right-wing League of Polish Families 
(LPR), we believe that PiS will seek to lead a minority 
government if talks with PO cannot be revived.  End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) Bickering between PiS and PO over positions in the 
coalition government moved past the stage of choreographed 
brinkmanship as late-night talks October 25 among 
Marcinkiewicz, PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Tusk, and 
Deputy PM-designate Jan Rokita (PO) failed to reconcile their 
competing demands.  While PO once seemed prepared to cede the 
interior and justice portfolios to PiS, in recognition of 
that party's anti-corruption and anti-communist agenda, the 
(somewhat unexpected) election of Lech Kaczynski (PiS) as 
president changed those calculations.  Since then, PO has 
insisted that its role must be to oppose the "monopoly of 
authority" PiS would otherwise enjoy and serve as a 
"counterweight" to that power.  Accordingly, PO leaders 
demanded that the interior ministry -- considered by PiS the 
real prize of the elections, after the presidency -- go to 
Rokita.  Another key sticking point was the parliamentary 
speakership itself, which had been more or less promised to 
PO.  PiS, however, rejected PO's choice, Bronislaw Komorowski 
(a sharp critic of PiS), suggesting that Tusk would be a 
better choice.  Rather than accept PiS's suggestion, PO grew 
feistier, stubbornly (and some might say inexplicably) 
insisting on Komorowski. 
 
3. (U) With a parliamentary vote on the speakership set for 
mid-day October 26, Marcinkiewicz made a new offer to PO that 
morning, proposing that the interior ministry be split apart 
and that Rokita head up a hived-off administration ministry. 
This proved insufficient for PO officials, who rejected the 
offer just prior to the parliamentary session and reaffirmed 
Komorowski as their candidate for speaker.  Once in session, 
however, PiS surprised nearly everyone by nominating Marek 
Jurek (PiS) as an opposing candidate (Jurek had been PiS's 
choice for one of the deputy speaker positions).  After a 
relatively brief and subdued debate (with the outcome a 
foregone conclusion), Jurek easily bested Komorowski, winning 
the support of SO, LPR and the Peasants' Party in party-line 
vote of 265 to 133 (the center-left SLD abstained). 
 
4. (C) Tusk and Rokita held a press conference afterwards to 
announce that PiS's nomination of Jurek signaled that no 
further coalition talks were possible with PiS.  Rokita 
reviewed the work of the PO and PiS expert teams, noting that 
a lot of progress had been reached on a common platform over 
the previous few days, despite remaining differences.  While 
clearly stating that talks had broken down, both Tusk and 
Rokita appeared to leave the door open somewhat, without 
saying precisely what they might expect from PiS.  For PiS's 
part, Jaroslaw Kaczynski declared that he hoped that the PiS 
and PO could still cobble together a compromise that would 
permit them to govern in coalition, a position echoed by 
Marcinkiewicz.  Ryszard Schnepf, tapped by Marcinkiewicz to 
be his principal foreign policy advisor, told us afterwards 
that Marcinkiewicz and Rokita have forged a close 
relationship, and that Marcinkiewicz is working feverishly to 
put the coalition together.  Both he and Rokita have faced 
criticism from within their own parties, however, with 
Marcinkiewicz charged with giving too much to PO, and Rokita 
challenged by PO members who believe the party will fare 
better in opposition rather than as the junior partner in a 
government heavily dominated by PiS. 
 
5. (C) Comment: If coalition negotiations with PO cannot be 
revived, PiS must choose between forming a formal coalition 
with Samoobrona, LPR and possibly PSL, and serving as a 
minority government -- backed on the initial vote by those 
parties.  Despite allegations from PO and SLD leaders that 
PiS has already signalled its course with the speakership 
election, we believe that PiS would be loath to enter into a 
formal arrangement with the radical opposition parties, whose 
cooperation would be unreliable and come at a very high price 
(including internationally).  A minority government cannot be 
an attractive option for PiS, either, especially given the 
need to pull together support for every vote.  At a certain 
level, both PiS and PO recognize that they need each other, 
and the next few days could see them to return to their 
senses and the bargaining table. 
ASHE