US embassy cable - 05HARARE1467

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001467 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR B. NEULING 
SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, ZI, MDC 
SUBJECT: FAUX-MDC CANDIDATES THROW HATS INTO SENATE RING 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C) At Monday's nomination court hearings, 26 individuals 
registered as MDC candidates for the Senate elections on 
November 26.  As expected, MDC leaders in the three 
Matabeleland provinces went forward with contesting the 
election, accounting for 15 of the candidates.  However, the 
other eleven candidates were not nominated by MDC provincial 
structures and appear to be opportunists seeking a Senatorial 
paycheck.  MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai's call for a 
boycott appears therefore to have largely carried the day. 
ZANU-PF candidates were the sole nominees in 19 of the 50 
districts and were thus declared victors by the Zimbabwean 
Election Commission (ZEC).  End Summary. 
 
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&MDC Candidates8: Ndebeles and Has-Beens or Wanna Bes 
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2.  (C) The fierce intra-party debate over participation in 
the Senate moved to another level on Monday when 26 
individuals registered with the nomination court as MDC 
candidates.  As expected, the provincial leaders in Bulawayo 
and Matabeleland North and South presented 5 candidates each. 
 The other eleven candidates appear to have nominated 
themselves and represent a grab bag of minor party 
functionaries, failed candidates for past parliamentary 
elections, average Joes who appear to have come forward on a 
lark, and even some (former?) ZANU-PF members.  In one case, 
the provincial chairman of Mashonaland East, his spokesman, 
and another provincial member registered for seats in Harare, 
undoubtedly hoping to capitalize on the party,s urban 
strength and secure a Senatorial paycheck. 
 
3.  (C) An official with the Zimbabwe Election Support 
Network (ZESN), a nonpartisan group that monitored the 
nomination courts, told post on Tuesday that the process for 
registering MDC candidates was confusing and subject to 
abuse.  The MDC party structures, which in the past had 
vetted candidates, was absent in all but the Ndebele 
provinces.  Suggesting the ad hoc nature of the nomination 
process, ZESN reported that one would-be MDC candidate was 
disqualified when he failed to produce any identification. 
 
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Tsvangirai Winning the Intra-Party Debate 
 
SIPDIS 
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4.  (C) Tsvangirai appears to have convinced nine of the 
twelve MDC party structures not to participate in the 
elections.  Tsvangirai aide Ghandi Mudzingwa told us the MDC 
President was undaunted by the emergence of the 26 MDC 
candidates, including 11 outside of Mtabeleland, whom 
Tsvangirai had dismissed as rogue elements.  According to 
 
SIPDIS 
Mudzingwa, the opposition leader,s strategy remained 
unchanged: he continues to campaign against the Senate, while 
telling his opponents within the party leadership that his 
door remains open should they choose to talk.  (N.B. Post 
understands that respected academic Brian Raftopolous will 
mediate a meeting of the MDC,s &top 68 as early as 
Thursday, which would mark their first confirmed meeting 
since October 12 when Tsvangirai overturned the Executive 
Council decision in favor of contesting.) 
 
5.  (C) Laying the groundwork for a boycott campaign in 
contested seats, Tsvangirai,s spokesman on Tuesday 
distributed a statement from the MDC secretary for Harare 
province (emailed by post to AF/S) denouncing &political 
adventurers8 supporting the &ZANU-PF and CIO Senate 
project.8  The statement also called on Harare voters to 
reject &invaders8 who were &bussed in from Mashonaland 
East,8 a reference to that province,s MDC chairman and 
spokesman.  Tsvangirai,s aides have also painted the 26 
candidates as not being the "real MDC" fueling speculation 
that they could be expelled. 
 
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ZANU-PF Expands Patronage Machine 
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6.  (C) The ruling party put forward candidates in all 50 
contested Senatorial seats (though without the usual party 
primary ) a source of controversy within ZANU-PF that has 
been largely overshadowed by the MDC in-fighting).  In 19 
districts, the ZANU-PF candidate was the sole nominee and was 
duly declared Senator-elect by ZEC officials present at the 
courts.  ZANU-PF largely put forward a list of political 
pensioners, many of whom are members of the &old guard8 who 
lost in past elections.  The ZANU-PF nominees confirm earlier 
assessments that the ruling party reinvented the Senate as a 
patronage machine.  A variety of independents and third party 
members, chiefly &also rans8 in past elections, also 
stepped forward to contest seats. 
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Gutu North By-Election: The Forgotten Race 
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7.  (C) Amidst the fervor surrounding the Senate debate, the 
MDC and ZANU-PF nominated their candidates for the 
parliamentary by-election in Gutu North to replace 
late-Minister Tungamirai, who died in August.  The opposition 
candidate is Crispa Musoni, who lost to Tungamirai in the 
last election.  Meanwhile, the ruling party nominated 
businessman Lovemore Matuke, who came in second to Tungamirai 
in the ZANU-PF primary for the seat.  Some war veterans have 
apparently questioned Musoni,s credentials, but the ruling 
party has a long track record of by-election successes, 
largely the result of applying national resources to a local 
campaign and thus tilting the playing field even more in its 
favor. 
 
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Comment 
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8.  (C) Tsvangirai appears to have largely carried the day. 
The MDC structures in nine of the party,s 12 provinces sided 
with his boycott stance.  Even in the three Ndebele 
provinces, it remains to be seen how deep the support for the 
decision to participate runs.  That said, the next few weeks 
promise to be tricky for both Tsvangirai and his rivals in 
the MDC.  The challenge for Tsvangirai will be how to 
campaign for a boycott without actually campaigning against 
MDC candidates.  For his rivals, the challenges are even 
deeper.  They need to demonstrate that they have a reason 
beyond self-interest for contesting the elections and will 
have to win without the support of the party or its 
charismatic leader. 
DELL