US embassy cable - 05LILONGWE937

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LILONGWE 000937 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2015 
TAGS: MW, PGOV, PREL, Political Issues 
SUBJECT: (C) BINGU AGONISTES: THE STRUGGLE CONTINUES 
 
 
Classified By: Alan W. Eastham for reasons 1.4b and 1.4d. 
 
1.  CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
2.  (C) SUMMARY:  PRESIDENT BINGU WA MUTHARIKA SUMMONED 
AMBASSADOR AND BRITISH HIGH COMMISSIONER TO STATE HOUSE 
OCTOBER 26 FOR A TWO-HOUR-PLUS DISCUSSION OF HIS EFFORTS TO 
COPE WITH THE "WRATH OF MULUZI" (AS HE CALLED THE EFFORT TO 
IMPEACH HIM) AND THE HUNGER CRISIS.  HE DEFENDED HIMSELF 
AGAINST SOME OF THE SPECIFIC ALLEGATIONS IN THE INDICTMENT, 
CALLED THE EFFORT TO SET UP A "NATIONAL GOVERNING COUNCIL" A 
COUP D'ETAT, AND FORESHADOWED THE USE OF THE ARMY TO PROVIDE 
SECURITY FOR THE GOVERNMENT MAIZE PIPELINE.  HE SAID THAT IF 
THINGS GET OUT OF HAND, HE MIGHT DECLARE A "LIMITED" STATE OF 
EMERGENCY.  END SUMMARY. 
 
CORRUPTION AT THE ROOT OF IMPEACHMENT 
------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) ON A DAY'S NOTICE, ON OCTOBER 26 AMBASSADOR AND 
BRITISH HIGH COMMISSIONER DAVID PEARY CALLED ON PRESIDENT 
BINGU WA MUTHARIKA AT MUTHARIKA'S REQUEST.  MUTHARIKA 
LAUNCHED INTO AN OPENING EXPOSITION CREDITING HIS CAMPAIGN 
AGAINST CORRUPTION AS THE PROXIMATE CAUSE OF WHAT HE CALLED 
THE "WRATH OF MULUZI" IN THE FORM OF THE IMPEACHMENT EFFORT 
IN PARLIAMENT.  INTERLEAVING SPECIFIC EXAMPLES, HE SAID THAT 
HIS ADMINISTRATION'S ANTI-CORRUPTION EFFORT HAD CREATED A 
LARGE NUMBER OF ENEMIES IN POLITICAL CIRCLES, GOVERNMENT, AND 
EVEN IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR.  FURTHERMORE, HE SAID, THE MOVE 
OF THE PRESIDENCY FROM BLANTYRE TO LILONGWE HAD MADE MANY 
PEOPLE UNHAPPY SINCE IT CUT OFF THEIR "OUT OF STATION" 
ALLOWANCES.  "IMPEACHMENT STARTED ON 20 MAY 2004," HE SAID, 
"THE DAY I TOOK OFFICE." MUTHARIKA AFFIRMED THAT THE 
ANTI-CORRUPTION EFFORT WOULD CONTINUE, AND HE HOPED THAT THE 
DONORS WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ANTI-CORRUPTION 
CAPABILITIES OF THE ANTI-CORRUPTION BUREAU (ACB), THE 
DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC PROSECUTIONS (DPP), AND THE ATTORNEY 
GENERAL'S OFFICE (SPECIFICALLY DE-PERSONALIZING IT FROM THE 
ATTORNEY GENERAL HIMSELF, WHO HAS BEEN THE SUBJECT OF SOME 
EMBARRASSING PRESS IN THE LAST FEW DAYS). 
 
4.  (C) MUTHARIKA THEN DIGRESSED TO OFFER A DEFENSE OF 
SEVERAL OF THE ALLEGATIONS IN THE DRAFT IMPEACHMENT 
INDICTMENT, SPECIFICALLY SAYING THAT HE HAD OBJECTED TO THE 
ACB'S DECISION TO PROSECUTE THE SUSPENDED TREASURY SECRETARY 
FOR SPENDING K 2.5 MILLION AS START-UP COSTS FOR THE MARDEF 
FUND, AN EXPENDITURE IN LINE WITH THE PRESIDENT'S ORDERS TO 
START IT UP AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, RATHER THAN BRINGING A CASE 
FOR THE k 20 MILLION HE IS ALLEGED TO HAVE STOLEN.  HE SAID 
THAT THE REMOVAL OF THE INSPECTOR GENERAL OF POLICE WAS BASED 
ON A DISPARITY BETWEEN ASSETS (FOUR HOUSES PURCHASED IN A 
VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME) AND SALARY, NOT AS ALLEGED IN THE 
IMPEACHMENT RESOLUTION.  AND HE SAID THAT IT WAS TRUE THAT HE 
HAD CLAIMED AN EDUCATION ALLOWANCE FOR A GRANDCHILD WHO HAD 
BEEN IN HIS HOUSEHOLD SINCE BIRTH AND WHO BORE HIS NAME.  WHY 
WOULD THE PRESIDENT NOT BE ELIGIBLE FOR AN ALLOWANCE HE HAD 
RECEIVED EARLIER, WHEN HE WAS A MINISTER?  "THEY ARE 
FRANTICALLY TRYING TO DESTROY MY REPUTATION," HE SAID. 
 
5.  (C)  MOREOVER, MUTHARIKA SAID, THERE ARE POWERFUL FORCES 
AT WORK IN THE MEDIA TO CONCOCT STORIES, GOING SO FAR AS TO 
QUOTE HIM SPEAKING WITH JOURNALISTS HE HAD NEVER MET.  FOR 
THIS REASON THE GOVERNMENT HAD HIRED A "SPIN DOCTOR" WHO HE 
IMPLIED WAS AN AMERICAN, WHO WOULD BE ARRIVING IN THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS.  "WE," HE SAID WITHOUT ELABORATION, "HAVE 
REGISTERED A NEW NEWSPAPER THAT WILL CONVEY OUR DEVELOPMENT 
MESSAGE." 
 
6.  (C) MUTHARIKA WENT ON TO SAY THAT HE IS NOT WORRIED ABOUT 
IMPEACHMENT, WHOSE MAIN EFFECT WAS TO "SLOW US DOWN AND WASTE 
TIME."  HE SAID THE UDF HAS COLLUDED WITH A JUDGE WHO WILL 
LIFT THE INJUNCTION AGAINST THE PARLIAMENT'S COMMENCING 
IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS IN AN EX PARTE HEARING THIS 
(WEDNESDAY) EVENING SO THAT PARLIAMENT WILL BE ABLE TO 
COMMENCE ITS CONSIDERATION OF THE IMPEACHMENT BILL ON OCTOBER 
27 AS PLANNED.  HE SAID THAT ANY VIOLENCE IN MONDAY'S DPP 
DEMONSTRATION WAS FROM UDF "THUGS" WHO HAD INFILTRATED THE 
DEMONSTRATION WITH STONES TO THROW AT CARS, AND DPP 
HEADQUARTERS HAD BEEN INVADED AND PARTIALLY RANSACKED BY UDF 
SUPPORTERS THAT SAME DAY WHILE THE STAFF WAS AT THE 
DEMONSTRATION.  THE OPPOSITION HAD ALSO THWARTED THE PASSAGE 
ON OCTOBER 25 OF THE UNCONTROVERSIAL BILL REFORMING THE PENAL 
CODE, SIMPLY TO PROVE THAT IT COULD BLOCK THE GOVERNMENT 
AGENDA.  HE EXPECTS THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TO REQUEST AN 
EXTENSION TO ITS PROJECTED ADJOURNMENT ON OCTOBER 31, AND HE 
SAID HE WOULD NOT GIVE IT TO THEM, NOR WOULD HE BRING THE 
ASSEMBLY BACK INTO SESSION UNTIL HE HAS BEEN ASSURED THAT 
BUSINESS WILL PROCEED. 
GOVERNING COUNCIL A COUP D'ETAT 
------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) HE WAS EMPHATIC THAT THE NATIONAL GOVERNING COUNCIL 
WAS NOT IN THE CONSTITUTION.  THE PRESIDENT'S MANDATE COMES 
FROM UNIVERSAL ADULT SUFFRAGE IN MALAWI.  A PRESIDENT CANNOT 
BE ELECTED BY THE PARLIAMENT.  IF THE OPPOSITION WANTS A 
GOVERNING COUNCIL, IT CAN HAVE ONE IF IT AMENDS THE 
CONSTITUTION BY A TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY AND SUBMITS THE 
QUESTION TO THE PEOPLE BY REFERENDUM.  UNDER OTHER 
CIRCUMSTANCES, THE NGC IS A "COUP D'ETAT".  MUTHARIKA SAID HE 
EXPECTS MORE DEMONSTRATIONS, WHICH WILL BE A THREAT TO LAW 
AND ORDER, AND HE MAY BE FORCED TO "TAKE TOUGH MEASURES." 
ARMY TO PROTECT ADMARC MAIZE DISTRIBUTION; NEED FUEL 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
8. (C) ELABORATING THE THEME OF "TOUGH MEASURES," MUTHARIKA 
SAID THAT THE ADMARC SYSTEM OF MAIZE (SUBSIDIZED) 
DISTRIBUTION HAD BEEN ABUSED.  THE OPPOSITION, IN COLLUSION 
WITH ADMARC EMPLOYEES, WAS "SABOTAGING" THE ECONOMY BY 
PURCHASING MAIZE AND MOVING IT OUT OF THE ADMARC DEPOTS AT 
NIGHT.  THE PEOPLE KNEW ABOUT ADMARC DEPOT ARRIVALS AND 
BLAMED THE GOVERNMENT WHEN THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH MAIZE THE 
NEXT DAY FOR PURCHASE.  THIS "SABOTAGE," HE SAID, WAS 
"TREASONOUS."  HE WOULD ORDER THE ARMY, HE SAID, TO FOLLOW 
THE CONTROL AND DISTRIBUTION OF MAIZE, AND IT COULD BE THAT 
IF SOMEONE CAME TO TAKE AWAY MAIZE WHO WAS NOT AUTHORIZED, 
THAT THEY WOULD BE "SHOT ON THE SPOT."  IT MIGHT EVEN BE 
NECESSARY, HE SAID, TO INTRODUCE A LIMITED STATE OF EMERGENCY 
TO GIVE THE ADMINISTRATION ENHANCED SEARCH POWERS TO USE TO 
DETECT HOARDING.  AND IT MIGHT BE NECESSARY TO "SEAL THE 
BORDERS" UNDER SUCH A DECLARATION OR TO DECLARE A CURFEW IF 
THE SITUATION CANNOT BE CONTAINED BY ORDINARY MEANS. 
MUTHARIKA NOTED THAT THE ARMY WOULD NEED FUEL TO SUPPORT SUCH 
AN EFFORT AND HE HOPED THE DONORS COULD PROVIDE IT. 
 
9. (C) MOREOVER, MUTHARIKA SAID, THE OPPOSITION'S "PLAN C" IF 
PLANS A (IMPEACHMENT) AND B (THE NATIONAL GOVERNING COUNCIL) 
DID NOT WORK WAS TO CAUSE CHAOS.  AL QAIDA IS IN MALAWI HE 
SAID, IN THE FORM OF MUSLIMS "IN MANGOCHI WHO ARE HIDING IN 
MOSQUES."  MONEY IS COMING IN THROUGH MUSLIM PREACHERS, NGOS, 
AND THE QADHAFI HOSPITAL PROJECT.  THE POLICE COULD NOT RAID 
MOSQUES, AND MUTHRAIKA SAID HE IS POLITICALLY RELUCTANT TO DO 
SO, BUT "THE ARABS" ARE SENDING MONEY TO BAKILI MULUZI.  "IT 
IS CHRISTIANITY VERSUS ISLAM HERE." 
 
CHILUMPHA THE "VICE PRESIDENT OF MULUZI." 
----------------------------------------- 
 
10. (C) THE COUNTRY HAS NO VICE PRESIDENT, HE SAID.  THE 
UDF'S CASSIM CHILUMPHA IS THE "VICE PRESIDENT OF MULUZI" 
SINCE HE HAS STOPPED COMING TO MEETINGS AND FAILED TO CHECK 
WITH THE PRESIDENT WHEN HE PROPOSED TO TRAVEL "ON BEHALF OF 
GOVERNMENT" TO SAUDI ARABIA AND OMAN, A TRIP THAT WAS 
CANCELLED BY STATE HOUSE. 
 
MULUZI'S AIM: DROP THE CORRUPTION CASES. 
--------------------------------------- 
 
11.  (C) MUTHARIKA SAID THAT THE LAST TIME HE HAD SPOKEN WITH 
MULUZI, MULUZI HAD ASKED HIM TO DROP THE CORRUPTION CASES 
AGAINST HIM AND HIS ASSOCIATES.  HE IMPLIED THAT DROPPING THE 
CASES WOULD RESULT IN DROPPING THE IMPEACHMENT EFFORT. 
MUTHARIKA SAID HE HAD REFUSED.  IF THEY PERSIST IN THE 
IMPEACHMENT, THE COUNTRY WILL "RISE UP AGAINST THEM." 
 
RIPOSTE 
------- 
 
12. (C) FOLLOWING THE FOREGOING MONOLOGUE, THE BRITISH HIGH 
COMMISSIONER REPLIED BY THANKING THE PRESIDENT FOR HIS 
PRESENTATION, AFFIRMING SUPPORT FOR THE ANTI-CORRUPTION 
CAMPAIGN, AND LAMENTING THAT PARLIAMENT HAD CHOSEN NOT TO 
ADDRESS THE IMPORTANT AGENDA FOR THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF ITS 
SESSION.  HE INFORMED THE PRESIDENT THAT THE DONOR COUNTRIES 
REPRESENTED IN MALAWI HAD PREPARED A STATEMENT OF THEIR 
POSITION ON IMPEACHMENT, WHICH WE WOULD BE SHARING WITH THE 
PRESIDENT. 
 
13. (C) THE AMBASSADOR FOLLOWED, REITERATING THANKS AND 
SUPPORT FOR THE ANTI-CORRUPTION DRIVE, SPECIFICALLY IN THE 
FORM OF MCA THRESHOLD SUPPORT FOR THE ACB, THE DPP, AND THE 
POLICE.  HE NOTED RECENT TRAINING IN EFFECTIVE GOVERNMENT 
COMMUNICATION AND THE GOVERNMENT'S EFFORTS TO GET ITS MESSAGE 
OUT MORE EFFECTIVELY.  HE WAS GRATIFIED THAT THE RECENT 
RUMORS OF NIGHT-TIME LIFTINGS OF MAIZE FROM ADMARC DEPOTS HAD 
REACHED THE PRESIDENT'S ATTENTION.  BUT, HE SAID, THERE WAS 
NO WAY TO SPIN A "DECLARATION OF EMERGENCY," CLOSING BORDERS, 
OR CURFEWS, WITHIN THE PRESENT POLITICAL CONTEXT, IN A WAY 
THAT WOULD BE WELL-RECEIVED BY THE DONOR COMMUNITY.  THAT 
WOULD SERVE NO PURPOSE OTHER THAN TO PROVIDE AMMUNITION FOR 
THE PRESIDENT'S ENEMIES, WHO WOULD ANNOUNCE THAT HE HAD LOST 
HIS DEMOCRATIC IDEALS.  FAR BETTER, THE AMBASSADOR SAID, 
WOULD BE TO TAKE PROPORTIONATE AND CAREFUL MEASURES TO 
REASSURE THE MALAWIAN PUBLIC THAT THE MAIZE BOUGHT AND 
SUBSIDIZED BY THE GOVERNMENT WAS BEING CAREFULLY AND 
TRANSPARENTLY HANDLED.  THOSE SHOULD INCLUDE ENHANCED POLICE 
SUPPORT TO ADMARC, AND HE WOULD NOT RULE OUT USE OF THE ARMY 
IN THIS EMERGENCY SO LONG AS IT WAS PRIMARILY LOGISTICAL AND 
SUPPORTED THE CIVIL LAW ENFORCEMENT COMMUNITY.  HE WONDERED 
WHETHER THERE WERE SIMILAR CONCERNS REGARDING THE 
HUMANITARIAN SUPPLIES THAT WERE BEING DISTRIBUTED BY VARIOUS 
GROUPS UNDER THE WFP UMBRELLA. 
 
14.  (C) MUTHARIKA REPLIED THAT HE WAS NOT AS FAMILIAR WITH 
THE HUMANITARIAN SUPPLY SITUATION BUT OBSERVED THAT SOME OF 
THE NGOS INVOLVED IN THE DISTRIBUTION WERE "CLOSE TO MULUZI." 
 HE SAID THE POLICE WERE NOT UP TO THE TASK, SINCE THEY WERE 
ENGAGED IN OTHER LAW AND ORDER EFFORTS. 
 
THE WAY FORWARD 
--------------- 
 
15.  (C) THE BRITISH HIGH COMMISSIONER THEN SUMMARIZED THE 
POSITION STATEMENT OF THE DONORS, IN THE FORM OF AN "OPEN 
LETTER," TELLING MUTHARIKA THAT THE DONOR GROUP WOULD WELCOME 
HIS REACTION TO IT.  MUTHARIKA PROMISED TO DO SO, SAYING THAT 
UNDOUBTEDLY BASED ON PEARY'S SUMMARY, THE PRESS WOULD SAY 
"DONORS LAMBASTE MUTHARIKA."  THE HIGH COMMISSIONER THEN 
URGED THE PRESIDENT TO FIND A WAY TO OPEN A DIALOGUE WITH THE 
OPPOSITION.  MUTHARIKA RESPONDED WITH A LONG DESCRIPTION OF 
PAST EFFORTS TO DO SO WITH THE MCP'S JOHN TEMBO AND A SHORTER 
RECOUNTING OF HIS FOUR CONVERSATIONS WITH BAKILI MULUZI IN 
THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS.  TEMBO, HE SAID, WAS SEDUCED BY 
MULUZI'S PROMISE THAT HE COULD BE "PRESIDENT" OF THE NATIONAL 
GOVERNING COUNCIL AND SEEMED TO WANT MUTHARIKA TO DESCEND TO 
PRESENT HIMSELF AS AN EQUAL BEFORE AGREEING TO MEET.  BUT, HE 
SAID, PERHAPS HE WOULD PROPOSE A ROUND-TABLE DISCUSSION AMONG 
THE POLITICAL PARTIES (THINKING ALOUD, PERHAPS FIVE PER 
PARTY) IN THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO TO ATTEMPT TO OPEN A 
DISCUSSION. 
 
HEADCOUNT 
--------- 
 
16. (C) AS THE TWO AMBASSADORS WERE LEAVING, MUTHARIKA NOTED 
AGAIN THAT HE WAS NOT WORRIED.  ACCORDING TO HIS VOTE COUNT, 
THERE WERE ONLY 106 VOTES ON THE OPPOSITION SIDE. 
 
NO SHOOTING 
----------- 
 
17. (C) AND AS WE MOVED TOWARD THE DOOR, HE AGAIN ASKED FOR 
SUPPORT WITH FUEL FOR THE ARMY'S ADMARC SECURITY SUPPORT, 
WHICH HE SAID WOULD HAPPEN REGARDLESS OF WHAT HE DECIDED 
ABOUT MORE DRAMATIC MEASURES.  THEN HE ADDED:  "DON'T WORRY, 
AMBASSADOR.  WE ARE NOT GOING TO SHOOT ANYONE.  I WAS JUST 
REFERRING TO WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN IF THE SITUATION GETS OUT OF 
HAND.  AND A DECLARATION OF EMERGENCY AND THE OTHER THINGS 
ARE LAST RESORTS." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
18. (C)  THIS WAS LARGELY AN EXERCISE IN SELF-JUSTIFICATION 
AND SELF-DEFENSE.  MUTHARIKA WAS GAUGING THE EXTENT TO WHICH 
DONORS GIVE CREDENCE TO THE ALLEGATIONS AGAINST HIM.  THE 
DONOR LETTER, WHICH URGES EXTREME CAUTION ON PARLIAMENT IN 
PROCEEDING TOWARD IMPEACHMENT WITHOUT DISCUSSING THE ACTUAL 
INDICTMENT, WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE A CERTAIN DEGREE OF 
COMFORT.  BUT MUTHARIKA WAS ALSO CLEARLY ATTEMPTING TO 
MEASURE DONOR REACTION TO THE DRAMATIC NOTION OF DECLARING AN 
EMERGENCY, JUSTIFIED BY THE FOOD SITUATION, IN THE MIDDLE OF 
A POLITICAL SHOWDOWN WITH HIS ENEMIES.  SOME OF HIS 
ALLEGATIONS WERE BEYOND BELIEF, BUT HE CONVEYED GENUINE 
CONVICTION THAT MULUZI (SINGLE-HANDEDLY) IS BEHIND ALL HIS 
TROUBLES, THAT VIOLENCE IS A REAL AND IMMINENT POSSIBILITY, 
AND THAT "AL QAIDA" PLAYS A ROLE AS WELL.  WHILE HE MAY 
BELIEVE THESE THINGS, EACH OF THESE PROPOSITIONS IS SUBJECT 
TO CHALLENGE.  IF HE ATTEMPTS TO ENHANCE HIS POWERS THROUGH A 
"DECLARATION OF EMERGENCY" HE MAY VERY WELL REINFORCE THE 
EFFORTS OF MULUZI AND OTHERS TO REMOVE HIM AND PROVOKE AN 
ESCALATION TOWARD VIOLENCE. 
 
19. (C)  WE WILL BE SEEING BAKILI MULUZI ON THURSDAY IN 
BLANTYRE TO PRESENT THE DONOR STATEMENT AND EXPECT A 
DIFFICULT CONVERSATION. 
 
 
 
 
EASTHAM