US embassy cable - 90MOGADISHU11295

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOGADISHU 11295 
 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, SO 
SUBJ: DECEMBER 27, 1990 MEETING WITH PRESIDENT SIAD BARRE 
 
1. (C) ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
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2. SUMMARY:  THE PRESIDENT POSED NO OBJECIION TO THE 
ORDERED DEPARTURE OF OUR PERSONNEL, NOR/OF THE WITHDRAWAL 
OF FUEL, EQUIPMENT AND CONTRACT PERSONNEL FROM BERBERA. 
HE SAID HE FEARED I HAD COME TO SAY ALL AMERICANS WERE 
LEAVING.  HIS COMMENTS ON THE COUNTRY'S SITUATION WERE 
TERSE BUT REALISTIC.  HE EXPRESSED DETERMINATION TO CARRY 
ON BUT GAVE NO HINT OF ANY GAMEPLAN AND LAPSED ONCE 
INTO FATALISM.  HE SEEMED TO BE IN GOOD PHYSICAL AND 
MENTAL HEALTH BUT NOT AT ALL INTERESTED IN EXTENDED 
DISCUSSION.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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3.  PRESIDENT SIAD BARRE RECEIVED ME AT MY REQUEST 
DECEMBER 27, 1990.  MY OBJECTIVE IN SEEKING THE MEETING, 
THE FIRST SINCE I PRESENTED MY CREDENTIALS IN SEPTEMBER, 
WAS TO MAKE A PERSONAL ASSESSMENT OF THE STATE OF MIND 
OF A CHIEF OF STATE WHOM ONE NEVER SEES IN PUBLIC AND 
ONLY IN THE MOST FORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES ON TELEVISION. 
WE MET AT VILLA SOMALIA IN A BUILDING AND ROOM ONCE 
USED BY THE CABINET FOR ITS SESSIONS.  SIAD ARRIVED 
AFTER I DID AND WAS ACCOMPANIED BY VICE MINISTER 
BASI FROM THE FOREIGN MINISTRY AND ANOTHER UNIDENTIFIED 
AIDE.  I WAS ALONE. 
 
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4.  LEFT TO INITIATE THE DISCUSSION, I TOLD SIAD I HAD 
ASKED TO SEE HIM BECAUSE THERE HAD BEEN NO OCCASION 
TO SPEAK FOR THREE MONTHS AND BECAUSE I WANTED TO BRIEF 
HIM ON RECENT USG DECISIONS REGARDING SOMALIA, TO AVOID 
THE DANGER OF MISINTERPRETATION.  AS THE PRESIDENT 
NODDED, I EXPLAINED THAT OUR RECENT EVACUATION OF 
NON-ESSENTIAL PERSONNEL HAD MADE IT NECESSARY TO 
SUSPEND OUR CIVIL AND MILITARY ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS, WHICH 
WE WOULD RESUME ONCE SECURITY CONDITIONS MADE IT 
POSSIBLE.  AS SIAD OFFERED NO COMMENT, I THEN TOLD HIM 
WE WERE WITHDRAWING FUEL, EQUIPMENT AND USG CONTRACT 
PERSONNEL FROM BERBERA, DUE TO PERSIAN GULF REQUIREMENTS. 
 
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5.  SIAD'S RESPONSE, WHEN I FINISHED MY BRIEF PRESENTA- 
TION, WAS THE APPARENTLY SERIOUS COMMENT. "O GOOD, I 
THOUGH YOU WERE COMING TO SAY GOODBYE AND TO TELL ME 
THE OTHER AMERICANS ALSO WERE LEAVING".  CONTINUING, 
HE SAID HE UNDERSTOOD AND ACCEPTED THE DECISIONS I HAD 
DESCRIBED.  DESCRIBING THE CURRENT SITUATION IN 
THE COUNTRY AS "BAD", THE PRESIDENT ADDED, "AND I AM 
A LITTLE BIT OLD".  HE CONCLUDED HIS RESPONSE WITH THE 
COMMENT, "AND WE DON'T KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN". 
 
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6.  FOR THE NEXT TEN MINUTES I TRIED TO DRAW THE 
ELDERLY PRESIDENT INTO CONVERSATION BUT COULD ELICIT 
ONLY BRIEF RESPONSES TO THE SUBJECTS I RAISED.  HE 
WAS ANXIOUS TO TERMINATE THE MEETING AND PROBABLY WOULD 
HAVE DONE SO, EXCEPT FOR THE FACT THAT THE JUICE HE HAD 
OFFERED HAD NOT YET ARRIVED.  WHEN I MENTIONED USG 
DISAPPOINTMENT AT THE COLLAPSE OF THE CAIRO ROUNDTABLE 
AND ASKED IF SOME OTHER INITIATIVE WERE UNDERWAY, 
SIAD REPLIED, "THEY CAN COME HERE AND TALK IF THEY 
WANT TO".  ASKED IF HE WAS LOOKING FOR ANY FURTHER HELP 
FROM THE USG OR OTHER NATIONS IN PROMOTING PEACEFUL 
RECONCILIATION, HIS COMMENT WAS THAT "GOD HELPS THOSE 
WHO HELP THEMSELVES".  WHEN I NOTED THE PASSAGE OF 
THE LEGISLATION ESTABLISHING GROUNDRULES FOR THE 
ESTABLISHMENT OF POLITICAL PARTIES, HE SAID HE THOUGHT 
ONE OR TWO ALREADY HAD REGISTERED.  THEN HE HAD AN 
APPARENTLY INCONCLUSIVE EXCHANGE IN SOMALI WITH HIS 
AIDES ON THE SUBJECT.  HE REPEATED AGAIN THAT THE 
SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY WAS BAD, NOTING AT ONE POINT THAT 
WHAT HAPPENS IS "UP TO GOD". 
 
7. AFTER OUR JUICE ARRIVED, AND APPARENTLY JUST TO MAKE 
CONVERSATION, SIAD SAID HE UNDERSTOOD PRESIDENT BUSH TOO 
WAS IN TROUBLE.  WHEN I ASKED HIM TO ELABORATE, HE 
ASKED INSTEAD WHEN THE PRESIDENT WILL LAUNCH THE ATTACK 
ON IRAQ.  WITH A SMILE I TOLD HIM THAT THE DATE HAD NOT 
BEEN SHARED WITH THE EMBASSY.  WE THEN EXCHANGED NEW 
YEARS GREETINGS AND PARTED. 
 
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8.  COMMENT:  SIAD'S STRIDE WAS VIGOROUS FOR A MAN IN 
HIS EIGHTIES, HIS HANDSHAKE WAS FIRM, AND HIS MIND 
WAS ALERT.  HAVING HAD TO LISTEN THE PREVIOUS DAY TO 
THE SOMALI AMBASSADOR TO WASHINGTON INSIST FOR AN HOUR 
THAT THE SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY IS IN ALL IMPORTANT 
RESPECTS NORMAL, AND HAVING BEEN TOLD BY ADMIRAL MARINO 
THAT PEACE HAD RETURNED TO THE NORTHWEST AS WE 
CHATTED WHILE I WAITED FOR SIAD, I WAS SURPRISED BY THE 
PRESLDENT'S   REALISM IN ACKNOWLEDGING THE REGIME'S 
PLIGHT.  HOWEVER, HE IS CONSIDERABLY SMARTER THAN MY 
OTHER TWO INTERLOCUTORS AND CERTAINLY WISE ENOUGH  TO 
REALIZE HE WOULD HAVE NO CREDIBILITY PRETENDING TO 
ANYONE LIVING IN MOGADISHU THAT CONDITIONS HERE 
RESEMBLE NORMALCY.  RECOGNIZING OUR PREOCCUPATION WITH 
HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES, HE PROBABLY ALSO SAW NO 
MILEAGE IN TOUTING THE REGIME'S MILITARY AND POLICE 
INITIATIVES.  PERHAPS HE RECOGNIZES THEIR LIMITATIONS. 
MY GENERAL IMPRESSION WAS THAT I WAS DEALING WITH A 
WORRIED MAN WHO DOES NOT FEEL HE HAS A GAMEPLAN WHICH 
WILL ALLOW HIM TO OVERCOME THE PROBLEMS BEFORE HIM. 
NEVERTHELESS HE SEEMED INTENT TO MUDDLE ON, GIVING NO 
HINT THAT HE MIGHT BE THINKING OF HEADING TOWARD THE 
EXIT. 
 
BISHOP