US embassy cable - 05ANKARA6446

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 006446 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SE AND EUR/CACEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, TU, AZ 
SUBJECT: TURKISH MFA ON AZERBAIJAN ELECTIONS:  QUIET 
PRESSURE 
 
REF: A. BAKU 1618 
     B. SIEBENTRITT/POLASCHIK E-MAILS OCT 25 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4 (b, 
d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (C)  Turkey's MFA says it has approached the GOAJ at all 
levels to express its desire for a free, fair, and 
transparent elections on November 6, but prefers not to do so 
publicly.  The GOT expects Aliyev to win comfortably even 
without cheating.  Turkey is sending a sizable contingent of 
official and private election observers, and is ready to 
assist with providing ink for finger inking if this becomes 
necessary.  End Summary. 
 
Quiet Turkish Diplomacy 
----------------------- 
 
2.  (C)  MFA Department Head for South Caucasus Suleyman 
Gokce told Poloff October 25 that Turkey has encouraged the 
Azerbaijan government "at every level" to ensure a free, fair 
and transparent elections process on November 6.  During a 
recent meeting in Istanbul, Turkish FM Gul raised Turkey's 
interest in a credible elections process with his Azeri 
counterpart, according to Gokce.  In addition, Prime Minister 
Erdogan is scheduled to telephone President Aliyev in the 
next couple of days to express Turkey's hopes for a good 
elections process.  Former Turkish President Suleyman Demirel 
is also expected to call Aliyev on the same subject. 
Meanwhile, Gokce reported, the Turkish embassy in Baku is 
maintaining contact with opposition figures and opposition 
personality Ali Kerimli recently gave a series of talks in 
Ankara. 
 
3.  (C)  Gokce said the GOT believes Aliyev will win 
reelection by a comfortable margin even without cheating. 
Ankara is watching the situation carefully but expects no 
instability in Azerbaijan around the elections at this time. 
We asked why the GOT has made no recent public statements 
concerning the need for free, fair, and transparent elections 
in Azerbaijan.  Gokce responded that Turkey believes quiet 
pressure at the leadership level is more effective; public 
pressure risks embarrassing the Aliyev government with 
potentially counter-productive results.  Gokce appreciated 
our providing copies of U.S. statement on Azerbaijan at the 
OSCE as well as A/S Fried's October 20 speech at a Baku 
university. 
 
Turkish Assistance -- Observers and Ink 
--------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (U)  Turkey has contributed 50 short term and two long 
term monitors to the ODIHR elections observation mission. 
Observers from the Turkish Grand National Assembly, 
parliamentary offices and NGOs will also take part, according 
to the MFA. 
 
5.  (SBU)  Gokce had also heard that the GOAJ had approved 
the use of finger inking for the elections.  Gokce said 
Turkey had long urged the GOAJ (again, privately) to do this 
and had identified sources of ink in Turkey.  He said Turkey 
is eager to help with provision of ink on short notice if 
necessary. 
 
Comment - No "Color Revolution" Please 
-------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C)  Turkey has developed strong commercial and political 
ties with Azerbaijan.  It is clearly hoping for a credible 
elections process in Azerbaijan, but one that leaves Aliyev 
firmly in power. 
MCELDOWNEY