US embassy cable - 05HELSINKI1139

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HELSINKI 001139 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ELAB, PINR, FI 
SUBJECT: EVERY FINN'S PRESIDENT: WHY TARJA HALONEN REMAINS 
SO POPULAR 
 
REF: HELSINKI 920 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED -- PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
1. (SBU) Social Democratic President Tarja Halonen remains 
enormously popular in Finland, and polls consistently 
predict that she will easily win a second term in January's 
election.  Halonen's left-wing base remains rock solid and 
her appeal across party lines is the object of great envy. 
Finland's first female president, Halonen is admired more 
for her image as Every Finn's President than for any 
specific policy initiative or success.  Most Finns credit 
her for being a non-partisan dedicated to promoting Finnish 
political interests abroad and to delivering a broad social 
welfare package at home, although her distaste for 
globalization draws criticism from business leaders.  As 
resounding as Halonen's second-term victory is likely to 
be, it will have to cast a long shadow to impact decisively 
the parliamentary elections of March 2007.  It will also do 
little to alter bilateral relations with the U.S. 
Differences over climate change and Guantanamo will linger. 
Halonen will urge caution on Finnish security policy 
(especially NATO) and typically fall in line with EU 
positions when Brussels and Washington differ.  Finland 
under Halonen will not send troops to Iraq, but will 
continue to contribute to Iraqi reconstruction in other 
ways.  And on nearly all other issues of concern to the 
U.S., Halonen will remain a social democratic leader in 
Europe with whom the U.S. can work.  End Summary. 
 
A Big Lead Based on Wide Appeal 
------------------------------- 
2. (U) Recent results in Germany and Poland (and early 
polls in France and Sweden) notwithstanding, Finland 
continues to gainsay the thesis that left-of-center parties 
are in trouble across Europe.  With presidential elections 
less than 4 months away, Social Democratic Party (SDP) 
Presidential incumbent Tarja Halonen enjoys a dominant 
lead.  According to a late September Finland-Gallup poll, 
support for Halonen now tops 58 percent, and her nearest 
rivals -- Center Party (CEN) Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen 
and (CONS) Conservative Candidate Sauli Niinisto -- trail 
badly at 17 and 20 percent, respectively.  Some leveling 
will likely occur before the election, but many observers 
now predict that Halonen could become the first Finnish 
candidate to win a presidential election in the first 
round. 
 
3. (SBU) Halonen's heady poll numbers are based on rock- 
solid support from her left-wing political base and on 
significant advantages among women and union members.  On 
the left, Halonen enjoys near-unanimous support within the 
SDP, which accounts for about 25 percent of all voters.  In 
addition, the Left Alliance and the Greens are largely 
behind her.  The former is running no candidate of its own 
and is campaigning openly for Halonen, while the latter's 
own presidential candidate told PolChief she expects many 
Greens to vote Halonen in the first round, and nearly all 
to do so in the second.  Among women, more than 70 percent 
support the president, and political leaders across the 
spectrum have admitted to us that while party discipline 
remains relatively strong among men, it is not so among 
women.  Indeed, polls show that fewer than 50 percent of 
men support Halonen; however, while all parties are aware 
of this "gender gap," the SDP has not yet found a way to 
remedy it, nor have the others found a good way to exploit 
it.  A parliamentary deputy (a woman) from the Swedish 
People's Party (RKP) explained the phenomenon by noting 
that Finland was the first European country to grant women 
full suffrage (in 1907) and, as its first female president, 
Halonen has indeed been a source of pride to women voters. 
(It helps, she added, that some women are "tired of seeing 
boring old men run the country.")  Organized labor, 
meanwhile, is so firmly behind the President that the 
Central Organization of Finnish Labor Unions (SAK) 
abandoned its past practice of donating funds to candidates 
from all three major parties, and will only support 
Halonen. 
 
4. (SBU) In addition to her strong support from women and 
the left, Halonen's much-envied ability to attract cross- 
party votes has thwarted opponents' strategies.  According 
to one of Niinisto's senior campaign advisors, Halonen's 
appeal has undermined his efforts to unite CEN and CONS 
voters in an effort to force a second round.  As another 
CONS strategist put it, "In Europe they talk about 'anti- 
socialist' unions of right and center parties, but we 
haven't been able to make that work" in Finland.  As 
another example, one RKP parliamentarian said she fears 
Halonen will further the erosion in support suffered by her 
party during the last presidential/parliamentary election 
cycle. 
 
Nothing Flashy, No Mistakes 
--------------------------- 
5. (SBU) At first glance, some might question how Halonen 
has managed to amass such a lead, given that most observers 
are unable to point to any earth-shaking policy initiatives 
or political victories as the basis for her popularity.  In 
both foreign and domestic policy, she has been competent 
and generally successful.  Finns credit Halonen for raising 
Finland's profile in the EU, and perceptions are that she 
has established a productive dialogue with Russia's 
Vladimir Putin which actually benefits Finland.  Her 
staunch opposition to the U.S.-led war in Iraq -- while 
never used for blatant political purposes as occurred in 
Germany -- has been recognized and appreciated by voters. 
Domestically, Halonen has unflinchingly defended Finland's 
welfare state model, and six years of good economic times 
(with GDP growth above the EU norm) have ensured continued 
delivery of generous benefits while also allowing the GOF 
to forestall any controversial or painful reforms.  Still, 
even supporters admit that while Halonen has been steady 
and reliable, none of these efforts has been visionary or 
overly bold. 
 
6. (SBU) Opponents, meanwhile, seem to gain little 
traction, even when their criticisms are valid.  On social 
welfare, for example, most analysts know reforms are 
necessary; under Halonen, however, the SDP has so far 
avoided addressing seriously Finland's medium- and long- 
term structural problems and has offered no answers to a 
looming demographic crisis.  In this regard, critics say, 
the president is popular for the moment with average Finns, 
but perhaps shortsighted or even somewhat opportunistic as 
concerns the long-term.  Business leaders, meanwhile, 
sharply criticize Halonen's clear reluctance to promote 
robust global trade.  While recognizing that she has made 
efforts abroad to promote Finland politically, they argue 
that her anti-globalization agenda has, in fact, limited 
her ability to promote Finnish interests fully. 
(Ironically, despite Halonen's popularity among women, 
female entrepreneurs as a group have not flourished.)  Even 
in foreign policy -- considered one of her strong suits -- 
some say Halonen is at times unrealistic, particularly in 
her go-slow approach to security policy. 
 
7. (SBU) The validity of these criticisms notwithstanding, 
Halonen's opponents still struggle to find the issues that 
resonate with voters.  One anecdote is revealing:  A 
widely-read news magazine recently ran a feature in which 
it specifically asked all seven of Halonen's opponents to 
identify her greatest mistake or shortcoming, four 
(including Vanhanen and Niinisto) offered no answer.  Their 
non-response says much about Finnish consensus-style 
politics and candidates' refusal to engage in U.S.-style 
punching below the belt, to be sure.  However, it also 
suggests that Halonen has performed very well in office, if 
unspectacularly, and that her record offers no real gaffs 
or gaps that her rivals find they can easily exploit. 
Niinisto, for example, has pressed a debate on security 
policy that has generated countless headlines and 
widespread debate within Finland's political class. 
However, his criticisms have stung Vanhanen more than 
Halonen, even though the prime minister's camp has engaged 
skillfully on the matter.  Meanwhile, Vanhanen's role as PM 
and his current partnership with the president in running 
the country prevent him from going heavily on the attack. 
Several of Halonen's opponents have floated variations of 
the "Halonen has done nothing wrong, because she has done 
nothing" theme (see reftel A), but as catchy as that phrase 
might be, voters appear unmoved. 
 
A Carefully Crafted Image 
------------------------- 
8. (SBU) If Halonen's competent but unflashy performance in 
office offers few political vulnerabilities, her image -- 
also competent and decidedly unflashy -- marks the real 
foundation of her popularity.  Halonen skillfully markets 
herself, at turns, as a tough ex-labor lawyer; a capable 
but humble international diplomat; the archetypical Finnish 
"self-made" political leader; and the kindly neighbor lady 
whom any Finn can approach for a favor or a chat.  The 
President's working class family background; her years of 
service as an SAK labor confederation attorney; her 
unexpected success as foreign minister in the late 1990s; 
and her modest apartment in a working class Helsinki 
neighborhood (which she rents out while occupying the 
Presidential Palace) all bolster these impressions in 
voters' eyes.  Indeed, she is often described as the true 
"Every Finn's President," aloof from partisan politics, 
accessible and pro-Finland -- but tough when necessary. 
 
9. (SBU) This multi-layered image is as much the stuff of 
reality as of presentation.  As a leader, Halonen truly 
eschews partisan politics and works to build bridges -- a 
modus operandi that has served her very well.  According to 
a top advisor to PM Vanhanen, no president in Finland's 
history has forged such a productive and cooperative 
relationship with the PM's office, even during previous 
administrations when both were from the same party. 
However, he lamented, the two are now political rivals, and 
their close cooperation has bolstered support for the 
president at Vanhanen's expense.  "When the President and 
the PM both look good," he said, "the President always 
looks better." 
 
10. (SBU) At the same time, Halonen is not above well- 
placed use of theatrics.  She is the first Finnish 
president to consistently speak "puhekieli" (everyday 
spoken Finnish) in public, as opposed to "kirjakieli" (very 
formal Finnish typically used only in writing and on 
television and radio).  This emphasizes humble roots and 
her apparent accessibility to all Finns.  She is also among 
the first Finnish politicians to enlist celebrity support - 
- a new campaign tactic here but one sure to spread 
quickly.  Meanwhile, there was the famous incident in which 
she straightened President Bush's tie in front of TV 
cameras during the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council 
meeting in Turkey in 2003.  Pundits continue to debate 
whether or not this stunt represented a victory for 
Halonen's image or a liability.  However, for every 
opponent who tries to ridicule the tie-straightening 
episode as mere pageantry (and they were right;  there was 
no substantive exchange between the two presidents), there 
is a supporter who argues that voters view it as an 
indication that the President is comfortable among and 
capable of dealing with leaders of the world's great 
powers. 
 
Halonen Term II: Implications for the U.S. 
------------------------------------------ 
11. (SBU) Regardless of how resounding her victory may be 
in January, Tarja Halonen's re-election will do little to 
alter the positive tenor of U.S.-Finnish relations.  As her 
support base would indicate, Halonen heads the left faction 
of her already left-of-center party, in a Nordic welfare 
state where skepticism toward many current U.S. policies is 
deeply entrenched across the political spectrum.  However, 
it is important to underscore that skepticism does not mean 
uncooperativeness.  Finnish leaders have a long history of 
coexisting peacefully -- even cooperating warmly -- with 
large superpowers, and there is no reason to expect 
anything different from Halonen the second time around. 
 
12. (SBU) In addition, while the direction of Finland's 
foreign policy may be influenced or even set by the 
President, Government must carry policy out, making the 
March 2007 parliamentary elections more important than 
January's results.  Some have suggested that a big first 
round win for Halonen could translate into a big victory 
for the SDP in 2007, or that a distant third-place finish 
for either Vanhanen or Niinisto will spell doom for CEN or 
CONS.  We dispute the former theory, both on the grounds 
that Halonen's win would have to cast an unrealistically 
long shadow and because the SDP may be facing some of its 
own internal problems (septel).  The latter theory may hold 
more water, but in the end Vanhanen and Niinisto are likely 
to finish so far behind -- but so close to one another -- 
that the implications for their respective parties more 
than a year later will be minimal. 
 
13. (SBU) What all this will mean in practice depends on 
the issue.  Within Europe, Halonen will prefer a go-slow 
approach to Finland's NATO membership.  (Halonen campaigned 
on a "no NATO" platform in 2000 but, as the current vocal 
security debate continues, the public posture appears to 
have softened slightly and we doubt she will make any sort 
of anti-NATO stance part of her campaign this time.)  She 
will rarely diverge from European consensus and will seldom 
advocate Finland's taking a clear lead on issues -- 
although we should expect the GOF to use its EU presidency 
in the second half of 2006 to forward some initiatives, 
including anti-trafficking in persons; sustainable 
development and energy efficiency; European dialogue with 
Russia, and potentially some sort of role in Ukraine, 
Belarus or the Caucusus.  As for issues that divide the EU, 
Halonen will always look toward Brussels before looking to 
Washington. 
 
14. (SBU) Further afield, Finnish boots on the ground in 
Iraq will remain a non-starter, although GOF non-military 
contributions in Iraq are certain to continue.  The GOF 
will remain deeply troubled by the U.S. handling of the 
situation in Guantanamo and by its perception that U.S. 
policy continues largely to ignore the reality of climate 
change.  However, these are not Halonen-specific problems; 
they would be contentious issues regardless of who is 
elected president.  For the other key items on our broad 
shared agenda -- including fostering democracy in the 
Middle East and elsewhere; crisis management, humanitarian 
intervention and peacekeeping; human rights; trafficking in 
persons; trans-Atlantic dialogue -- we can count on Finland 
during a second Halonen term to be a reliable and pro- 
active partner. 
HYATT