US embassy cable - 05DUBLIN1322

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 001322 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ETRD, WTO, ECON, EAGR, EI 
SUBJECT: IRISH SEE DOMESTIC POLITICAL DIFFICULTIES IN WTO 
AGRICULTURE TALKS 
 
REF: EU TRADE OFFICERS' E-MAIL CHAIN OF OCTOBER 25 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary: On October 25, high-ranking GOI officials 
told the Ambassador that Ireland could not afford to be more 
flexible in EU discussions on the WTO agricultural 
negotiations, given domestic political sensitivities with the 
farm community.  The officials noted prior EU commitments not 
to tamper with the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and they 
cited political dangers in revisiting those commitments 
before Ireland's 2007 general elections.  In separate 
discussions with Emboffs, other GOI officials acknowledged 
Ireland's potential gains from a Doha deal, particularly in 
the manufacturing and services sectors that now dominate the 
economy.  They also, however, cited political sensitivities 
in the farm community, which had prompted recent strong 
statements from Prime Minister Ahern in defense of the CAP. 
Ireland's public position against further EU flexibility in 
the WTO agricultural negotiations is atypical, since the GOI 
prefers to stand behind EU consensus on divisive U.S.-EU 
issues.  Ireland's stance is also unusual in view of the 
GOI's longstanding advocacy for developing countries and the 
immense benefits that would accrue to such countries from a 
successful Hong Kong ministerial.  End summary. 
 
The Ambassador's Discussions: Political Sensitivities 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Ireland cannot afford politically to be more 
flexible on the EU approach to the WTO agricultural 
negotiations, the Ambassador was told in separate 
conversations on October 25 with Minister for Enterprise, 
Trade, and Employment Micheal Martin, Secretary General for 
Foreign Affairs Dermot Gallagher, and Secretary General in 
the Department of the Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Dermot 
McCarthy.  The officials adopted the uniform line that the 
GOI had previously promised the farm community that the 
Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) would not be revisited 
before 2013.  The GOI had relied strongly on those promises 
to sell recent CAP reforms, and any reneging on those 
commitments would be politically explosive ahead of the 2007 
general elections in Ireland.  The officials noted that while 
Ireland's 50,000 agricultural workers and their families were 
a community in conspicuous economic decline, they formed a 
political constituency that the Government was reluctant to 
rile in the run-up to the 2007 vote.  Minister Martin 
conceded that Ireland had huge potential benefits to reap 
from a successful Hong Kong ministerial, particularly as the 
economy now depended critically on trade and investment in 
the manufacturing and services sectors.  He reiterated, 
however, that the politics of the situation seriously 
constrained Ireland's flexibility on the WTO agricultural 
negotiations. 
 
Other GOI Officials: Again, Farm Sector Pressures 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
3.  (SBU) On October 25, Pol/Econ Counselor and Econoff also 
met with officials in the Economic Policy Office of the 
Department of the Taoiseach.  The officials noted that Post 
was "preaching to the converted" in highlighting Ireland's 
potential gains from a Doha deal, particularly in services 
and manufacturing.  They acknowledged that the Celtic Tiger 
period had pushed Ireland well beyond its former status as an 
agriculture-dominated society and that farm interests now 
figured less significantly in the overall economy.  They, 
however, reiterated points made by Ambassador's interlocutors 
that farmers were too important a political constituency to 
lose before the 2007 elections. 
 
AmCham Plans 
------------ 
 
4.  (SBU) Post has been in touch with the American Chamber of 
Commerce since October 21, asking the organization to help 
with outreach to the GOI.  AmCham President Eoin O'Driscoll 
plans to deliver an address to the annual AmCham convention 
in Cork on October 27 that will highlight the need for 
balance in Ireland's approach to the WTO negotiations.  His 
speech will stress that the more dominant sectors of the 
Irish economy have interests that should not be sacrificed to 
assuage agricultural concerns.  (O'Driscoll was head of the 
Enterprise Strategy Group that drafted, on the GOI's behalf, 
a landmark report in 2004 on the future of the Irish economy, 
a piece that recommended increased reliance on the high-tech, 
knowledge-intensive sectors of the economy.) 
 
Comment: An Unusual Stance for Ireland 
-------------------------------------- 
 
DUBLIN 00001322  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
5.  (SUB) Comment: Ireland's staunch public position against 
further EU concessions in the WTO agricultural negotiations 
is highly atypical.  The Irish Government usually prefers to 
stand behind EU consensus on divisive U.S.-EU issues and to 
seek opportunities to act as a broker among Member States. 
With elections looming and France to hide behind, however, 
the Government is putting its political concerns about its 
economic interests and development goals.  Public statements 
in defense of the CAP from Prime Minister Ahern and 
Agriculture Minister Coughlin reflect, in part, decades-old 
reluctance within the governing Fianna Fail party to upset 
the farm community, the party's traditional base of support. 
Moreover, the 19th century famine continues to make Ireland 
sensitive to increased dependence on foreign-sourced food. 
Prime Minister Ahern's strong statements also show his recent 
defiant mood on the CAP, which he displayed in a late 
September public row with Prime Minister Blair and the 
Financial Times over the level of EU income support for Irish 
farmers.  An equally odd feature of Ireland's position is 
that the GOI has been a strong international advocate of 
developing countries, brandishing its renewed commitment at 
the September UN High-Level Event to reach 0.7 percent of GNP 
for overseas development assistance.  This commitment has 
wide public support and was heralded by Bono and Bob Geldof, 
both Irish citizens.  When Post, however, confronts Irish 
officials with economic estimates that a successful Doha 
Round could lift up to 300 million out of poverty in the 
developing world, they concede the point, but shrug, citing 
the political difficulties involved in confronting Irish 
farmers. 
KENNY