US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4341

C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 004341 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W, INR/EAP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2025 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, TW 
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENE SETTER:  PENGHU COUNTY 
 
REF: TAIPEI 4158 
 
Classified By: AIT ACTING DIRECTOR DAVID J. KEEGAN, 
REASON(S): 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY. DESPITE PENGHU'S LONG-STANDING REPUTATION AS 
SOLIDLY BLUE, OBSERVERS CALL THIS A NECK-AND-NECK RACE.  THE 
GREGARIOUS DPP CANDIDATE CHEN KUANG-FU STARTED HIS CAMPAIGN 
FOR THIS ELECTION RIGHT AFTER LOSING THE LAST MAGISTERIAL 
ELECTION AND BY BUILDING UP HIS GRASSROOTS BASE IN PENGHU 
WITH AN EMPHASIS ON SEEING THAT DPP OFFICE PROVIDE FAST AND 
EFFECTIVE CONSTITUENT SERVICES, CHEN HAS BECOME A FORMIDABLE 
FOE TO THE DOMINANT KMT'S CANDIDATE WANG CHIEN-FA, A 
LACKLUSTER CIVIL SERVANT WHO IS BANKING ON JOINT CAMPAIGN 
APPEARANCES WITH KMT CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU TO SECURE A WIN. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) BOTH THE KMT AND DPP READILY POINT OUT THAT THE DPP'S 
IMAGE SUFFERS GREATLY IN PENGHU DUE TO THE SEEMINGLY NON-STOP 
NEWS FROM AROUND TAIWAN DEPICTING DPP CORRUPTION AND CENTRAL 
ADMINISTRATIVE INCOMPETENCE.  DESPITE A VISIT FROM PREMIER 
HSIEH CHANG-TING IN EARLY OCTOBER TO KICK OFF THE OPENING OF 
THE DPP CANDIDATE'S CAMPAIGN OFFICE, HARDLY ANY LOCALS SHOWED 
UP EVEN TO GET A CHANCE TO GLIMPSE HSIEH, WHO JUST MONTHS AGO 
WOULD HAVE BEEN A HUGE ATTRACTION FOR BOTH THE PARTY FAITHFUL 
AND THE CURIOUS. 
 
3. (C) THE LACK OF WELL-WISHERS AT HSIEH'S APPEARANCE 
SURPRISED THE KMT COUNTY OFFICE, ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE NOT LET 
DOWN THEIR GUARD YET.  KNOWING THEIR CANDIDATE LACKS 
CAMPAIGNING SKILLS AND PERSONAL APPEAL, THEY ARE ON THE 
LOOKOUT FOR WAYS TO RAISE HIS PROFILE AMONG VOTERS.  LIKE 
ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTH, PENGHU'S KMT STRATEGY IS TO CONNECT 
THE LOCAL ELECTION TO THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, 
EMPHASIZING THAT KEEPING THE KMT IN PLACE LOCALLY WILL 
PROVIDE EASIER ACCESS TO THE REALMS OF TAIPEI'S HALLS OF 
POWER IF KMT CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU TAKES THE PRESIDENCY. 
 
4. (C) CHAIRMAN MA, WHO WAS IN PENGHU CAMPAIGNING ON OCTOBER 
21, 2005, ATTRACTED RESPECTABLE CROWDS, ACCORDING TO THE 
LOCAL POLICE COMMISSIONER.  UNFORTUNATELY, JUST TWO HOURS 
BEFORE HIS ARRIVAL TO HELP OPEN CANDIDATE WANG'S CAMPAIGN 
OFFICE, PENGHU PROSECUTORS RAIDED THE OFFICE AND SEIZED 56 
TINS OF TEA LEAVES WHILE INVESTIGATING ALLEGED VOTE-BUYING 
ACTIVITIES. STILL, THE KMT OFFICE IS BANKING ON MA'S RETURN 
ON NOVEMBER 29 AND SEES THAT JOINT APPEARANCE LATE IN THE 
CAMPAIGN AS THE KEY TO ITS WIN. 
 
5. (C)  LIKE MOST DPP CAMPAIGN OFFICES, PENGHU'S DPP STRATEGY 
IS TO FOCUS ON ITS CANDIDATE'S PERSONAL QUALITIES, CHARACTER 
AND ABILITIES.  SINCE LOSING THE MAGISTERIAL ELECTION IN 
2001, CANDIDATE CHEN HASN'T STOPPED CAMPAIGNING FOR EVEN A 
DAY, SAY KMT OFFICIALS. HIS EFFORTS HAVE PAID OFF AND WON HIM 
IMPORTANT FRIENDSHIPS, EVEN IN THE OFFICES OF BLUE-LEANING 
INDEPENDENT LY MEMBER LIN PIN-KUAN. IN ADDITION, A LOCAL 
DISLIKE AMONG THE WORKING CLASS FOR INCUMBENT KMT MAGISTRATE 
LAI, SAY DPP OFFICIALS, FURTHER BOOSTS CHEN'S CHANCES FOR A 
WIN.  SEEN AS A "SCHOLAR," MAGISTRATE LAI, A PH.D. IN 
ENGINEERING FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI, IS BERATED BY 
DPP OFFICIALS AS TAKING CREDIT FOR "BEAUTIFYING PENGHU" AND 
"LOWERING CRIME," NEITHER OF WHICH, THEY SAY, HE HAD ANYTHING 
TO DO WITH.  THEY BELIEVE LOCALS DISLIKE OF LAI'S ARROGANT 
ATTITUDE WILL TRANSFER DIRECTLY TO THE KMT CANDIDATE WANG, 
WHO IS NEITHER TELEGENIC NOR PERSONABLE. 
 
6. (C) IN INITIAL CONVERSATIONS, THE DPP PLAYED DOWN THE "MA 
EFFECT," SAYING EARLY CAMPAIGN APPEARANCES WILL ONLY CAUSE A 
TEMPORARY SPIKE IN SUPPORT FOR THE KMT.  HOWEVER, THE DPP 
LATER TOLD AIT/K THEY ARE EXTREMELY WORRIED ABOUT THE 
POSSIBILITY THAT CHAIRMAN MA WILL RETURN WITHIN A WEEK BEFORE 
THE DECEMBER 3 VOTE.  THEY CLAIMED THAT MA'S IMAGE IS SO 
POPULAR IN THE TRADITIONALLY BLUE-LEANING PENGHU THAT A VISIT 
CLOSE TO VOTING WILL CERTAINLY MOVE ANY UNDECIDED VOTERS INTO 
THE BLUE CAMP.  THE FACTOR THAT WORRIES THE DPP MOST, 
HOWEVER, IS THE WEATHER.  A FINE DAY ON DECEMBER 3RD, WILL 
GUARANTEE THE  FISHERMEN ARE AT SEA AND NOT AT THE POLLS. 
BOTH KMT AND DPP OFFICES BELIEVE RAIN AND ITS ACCOMPANYING 
HIGHER VOTER TURNOUT WILL BENEFIT THE DPP. 
 
7 (C) COMMENT: THIS IS A VERY,VERY CLOSE RACE, IN WHICH 
INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE HSU CHING-MING ISN'T EVEN A FACTOR. 
AIT/K WILL FOLLOW DEVELOPMENTS, POLLS, AND THE WEATHER 
CLOSELY. END COMMENT. 
KEEGAN