US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4390

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004390 
 
SIPDIS 
 
CENTCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PNAT, IZ, Elections 
SUBJECT: OFFICIAL RESULT SHOWS THE CONSTITUTION PASSES - 
MIXED SUNNI ARAB REACTIONS 
 
REF: BAGHDAD 4381 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Robert Ford, reason 1.4 (d) 
 
1. (U) SUMMARY: The Independent Electoral Commission of 
Iraq (IECI) announced final referendum results and 
passage of the constitution October 25, publicly 
certifying the results shortly thereafter.  In what 
appeared a conciliatory gesture to Sunni Arabs, 
Deputy Speaker Shahristani said that those who had 
elected to vote "no" had expressed a "respectable" 
opinion.  The biggest Sunni Arab political party, the 
Iraqi Islamic Party, responded carefully, noting it had 
questions about the Ninewa vote but looked forward to 
resolving questions about the constitution in the next 
national assembly.    Outspoken Sunni Arab politician 
Saleh Mutlak told the Arab media that the results were 
fraudulent.  He called for a revote in some provinces. 
However, he stopped short of saying he would boycott the 
December national elections.  Our sense is that there 
likely will be Sunni Arab complaints and protests, but 
the approach of December election list registration 
deadline will focus minds on that very quickly.  END 
SUMMARY 
 
2. (SBU) On October 25, the IECI announced final 
referendum results at a 1:30 press conference.  At a 
subsequent public signing event, Iraqi Commissioners, 
joined by UN/EAD chief Carina Perelli, signed a 
document affirming that that the referendum had passed 
in accordance with Article 61 of the Transitional 
Administrative Law.  The document listed final results 
for each province.  After the press event, 
Commissioners and UN staff were jubilant, and exuded a 
sense of relief and accomplishment. Commissioners and 
UN staff congregated to offer each other praise and 
congratulations.  UN legal advisor Jose Maria Aranaz 
mentioned that the group had been up until 2:30 that 
morning finalizing arrangements.  Commissioners Hamdia 
Al-Hussani and Aida Al-Salihi mentioned with wide 
smiles that they were looking forward to finally going 
home to get some sleep, but noted that challenges 
associated with the December 15 election are looming. 
Commissioner Farid Ayar told PolOff that the moment of 
celebration would be short-lived as the December 15 
election will now take center stage. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
MEASURED RESPONSE FROM IIP; BLAST FROM MUTLAK 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
3. (U) In an interview on al-Jazeera, the Sunni 
Arab-dominated Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) Political 
Bureau's member Ayad al-Azzi offered a cautious 
response.  He emphasized that the IIP had reservations 
over the draft and the vote in Ninewa, but would seek 
to address their concerns through the next national 
assembly. 
 
4.  (U)  Outspoken Sunni Arab critic of the government 
Saleh Mutlak denounced the referendum results on 
several networks.  He alleged massive fraud in Ninewa, 
Diyala and throughout the south.  He claimed that state 
security institutions had interfered to change the 
results.  He also claimed that he would not recognize 
the constitution unless the vote was held again in 
Diwaniya, Samawah, Mosul, and Diyala.  However, he 
stopped short of calling for a boycott of the December 
national elections.  Instead, Mutlak demanded 
"international observers" for any future elections in 
Iraq. 
 
5.  (C)  Similarly, Sunni Arab politician and opponent 
of the constitution Hatem al-Mukhlis told Poloff 
October 24 that the next assembly would be key, as the 
constitution has dozens of areas where additional 
legislation is required.  Mukhlis was convinced that 
the vote had been rigged but planned to work with the 
system.  (Comment: In Mukhlis' case, this might mean 
running with Saleh Mutlak's election list, he told us. 
End Comment.) 
 
--------------------------- 
SHAHRISTANI TAKES HIGH ROAD 
--------------------------- 
 
6. (U) Deputy TNA Speaker Husayn Shahristani -- who 
had prematurely declared the constitution passed 
several days ago -- appeared cautious not to gloat in 
a separate interview on Al-Hurra-Iraq.  Shahristani 
said that the will of the people was clear, but the 
decision to vote "no" had been "a respectable 
opinion."  He said he looked forward to the next 
Council of Representatives as a forum to push the 
Iraqi political process forward. 
 
---------------------------- 
WAITING FOR THE FINAL REPORT 
---------------------------- 
 
7. (C) We have still not seen the report promised by 
Perelli ref including the findings of the audit 
teams that conducted ballot checks in Erbil, Babil, 
Basrah and Ninewa.  Perelli told Poloff on the 
margins of the press conference announcing final 
results, that she had sent the report to New York 
for clearance.  During the press conference, 
Commissioner Farid  responded to a question about 
the audit reports by noting that nothing had been 
discovered that would affect the outcome of the 
referendum.  He made a similar assertion about the 
135 referendum-related complaints received by 
the IECI. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
8.  (C)  We should anticipate over the next several 
days Sunni Arabs complaints about the referendum 
results.  The deadline for registering political 
coalitions and candidate lists for the December 
national elections is October 28.  In Baghdad the 
negotiating is fast and furious about candidate 
lists and possible electoral alliances.  Our sense 
is that the Sunni Arab political leadership for the 
most part will quickly focus back on that work.  We 
will, however, monitor Sunni Arab reaction carefully 
and will urge that the election commission talk 
directly to Sunni Arab leaders about complaints with 
the process. 
 
 
Satterfield