US embassy cable - 02AMMAN6706

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 006706 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR INR/I, NEA AND PRM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2020 
TAGS: PINR, KPAL, KWBG, IS, JO, KPRP 
SUBJECT: PALESTINIAN REFUGEES AND THE RIGHT OF RETURN:  THE 
VIEW FROM JORDAN (C-NE2-01206) 
 
REF: A. STATE 209364 
 
     B. AMMAN 5912 
     C. AMMAN 1805 
 
Classified By: Amb. Edward W. Gnehm for reasons 1.5 (B) and (D) 
 
1.  (S)  Following more than two years of Israeli-Palestinian 
violence and Israel's intense and still ongoing military 
operations in the West Bank and Gaza, few if any Palestinian 
refugees in Jordan are focused on the right of return.  In 
the eyes of Palestinian refugees in Jordan, Israeli 
government policies and the evisceration of the Palestinian 
Authority have made any discussion of final settlement 
irrelevant for the moment.  Moreover, with new Israeli 
elections and the possibility of war in Iraq looming, most 
Palestinian refugees in Jordan are deeply worried that the 
Israeli Government will seize the opportunity to move large 
numbers of Palestinians from the West Bank (ref b).  Although 
the GOJ continues to plan its position for final status 
talks, questions of compensation and right of return are not 
the most important issues on Palestinian refugees' minds 
these days.  Nevertheless, we offer the following in response 
to ref a request for information. 
 
2.  (S)  The vast majority of the 1.7 million registered 
Palestinian refugees resident in Jordan enjoy citizenship and 
(nearly) full rights.  We believe that a sizeable majority -- 
especially those Palestinian-Jordanians who are economically 
well-established -- would not/not seek to exercise their 
right of return in the event of a political settlement.  An 
estimated 100,000 Gazans, concentrated in Jerash and Aqaba, 
do not hold Jordanian citizenship.  These, as well as less 
economically advantaged refugees who still live in the camps, 
would be more inclined to accept an offer of return to a new 
Palestinian state. 
 
3.  (S)  The public GOJ position and public statements made 
by refugees themselves insist on the right of return, and 
these public positions are unlikely to change.  However, 
private discussions with GOJ officials and refugees alike 
reveal a general acceptance of the notion that most 
Palestinian refugees in Jordan would not exercise that 
theoretical right.  While most refugees would like the right 
to travel to historical Palestine (including ancestral homes 
inside Green Line Israel), most privately acknowledge that 
their lives and livelihoods are irreplaceably rooted in 
Jordan. 
 
4.  (S)  For Palestinian refugees resident in Jordan, the 
most contentious issue in final status talks likely would be 
the question of who would receive financial compensation for 
relinquishing the right of return.  Palestinian refugees in 
Jordan, according to several prominent Palestinian 
politicians we have spoken to over the past two years, will 
expect direct cash payments for their personal relinquishment 
of the right of return.  A "flash" payment of the sort 
envisioned in the Taba talks likely would prove acceptable to 
Palestinian refugees resident in Jordan; any settlement that 
would not include a direct payment would provoke serious 
discontent. 
 
5.  (S)  The GOJ, still plugging away at research in 
anticipation of a settlement, will also seek compensation for 
its own substantial expenditures for "hosting" Palestinian 
refugees since 1948.  Then-GOJ peace process coordinator 
Marouf Bakhit (now the Jordanian Ambassador in Ankara) told 
PolCouns in September that the GOJ continues to work on 
"credible" numbers for use in negotiations on compensation, 
calculating the number of refugees and displaced persons at 
1.46 million.  The GOJ reports that it has already expended 
nearly USD 4 billion on health care and education for 
Palestinian refugees and would seek matching compensation. 
Bakhit said the GOJ would use a significant portion of any 
compensation to rehabilitate refugee camps in Jordan, since 
they generally fall below the standards of other Jordanian 
urban areas for services, and symbolize the "outsider" status 
of Palestinian refugees. 
 
6.  (S)  The rejectionist groups resident in Jordan have been 
surprisingly quiet on all political questions following the 
GOJ's stern April 2002 warning against any activities that 
could threaten internal stability (ref c).  GOJ Department of 
Palestinian Affairs Director Abdulkarim Abulhaija has 
repeatedly told RefCoord that rejectionist groups understand 
that GOJ security services will react "quickly and cruelly if 
necessary" to maintain order, and they are keeping a low 
profile.  As a result, there have been few and only minor 
protests or other organized political activities in the 
refugee camps in the last six months.  Although we are not 
privy to internal discussions of rejectionist groups, we 
suspect that they -- like the Palestinian refugee population 
at large -- are focused more on current Israeli government 
policies and perceived strategic threat to the Palestinian 
people and far less on the question of final status 
negotiating positions. 
 
GNEHM