US embassy cable - 05MANILA5023

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 005023 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP AND EAP/MTS 
NSC FOR GREEN 
SECDEF/OSD/ISA/AP FOR ALLEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2015 
TAGS: PINS, PREL, PTER, ASEC, MOPS, RP 
SUBJECT: INDICATIONS OF COUP PLOTTING 
 
 
Classified By: (U) Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Scott Bellard 
for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
1.  (S/NF) SUMMARY.  There are disturbing indications that 
recidivist coup plotter "Gringo" Honasan and opposition 
Senator "Ping" Lacson may be at the very least associated 
with plots against President Arroyo in conjunction with the 
Young Officers Union (YOU), a shadowy cabal of junior and 
mid-grade Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) officers. 
The AFP is aware of the possible threat, but its leadership 
does not appear overly concerned and committed to keeping the 
AFP apolitical.  The nature and extent of YOU's support 
within the military is likely less significant than its 
supporters claim, but perhaps greater than we had realized, 
given that dissatisfaction in the ranks is reportedly 
growing.  Any coup attempt would likely split the military, 
undermine reform efforts, and potentially trigger civil 
conflict.  We have emphatically and repeatedly made clear 
that the United States firmly opposes any 
extra-constitutional action, stressing that any effort to 
overthrow the government would result in a cut off of US 
assistance and would have serious negative implications for 
the Philippines' international image and its investment 
climate as well.  END SUMMARY. 
 
THE HONASAN/LACSON CONNECTION 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (S/NF)  In an October 25 meeting with poloff, former 
Chief of Staff to then-President Corazon Aquino Oscar Orbus 
claimed to be a conduit to the Young Officers Union (YOU), a 
cabal of junior and mid-grade officers whom he described as 
"plotting against the government."   (Note: This version of 
YOU -- also known as YOU-New Generation -- apparently has its 
roots in an earlier anti-Marcos Young Officers Union within 
the AFP.  End note.)  Orbus claimed YOU is an "army within an 
army," with its own command and battle staffs.  He claimed 
that former Senator and recidivist coup plotter Gregorio 
"Gringo" Honasan (Philippine Military Academy '71) is one of 
YOU's "kuyas" (older brothers or senior advisors), as are two 
cronies of opposition Senator Panfilo "Ping" Lacson (PMA '71) 
-- Victor Batac (PMA '71) and Jake Malahakan (PMA '71) -- as 
well as Pastor "Boy" Saycon, who is associated with the 
left-leaning Council on Philippine Affairs (COPA).  Notably, 
YOU's manifesto, dated July 21, 2005, can be found on Ping 
Lacson's website: www.pl.888.ph/articles/you.php. 
 
3.  (S/NF)  Poloff emphatically told Orbus that the USG 
supported the rule of law and opposed all 
extra-constitutional action.  He warned that any effort to 
overthrow the government or the elected President would 
result in a cut off of US assistance and jeopardize the 
ongoing defense reform program. 
 
WAITING FOR THE TIME TO STRIKE 
------------------------------ 
 
4.  (S/NF) Orbus stated that YOU members believed that, 
because there is "no hope for reform," the AFP -- as the 
"protector of the people and the State" (as described in 
Article II, Section 3 of the 1987 Philippine Constitution, he 
noted) -- "needed to do something."  He asserted YOU's plans 
are 70-percent complete and that it was waiting for the right 
time to engage in a "constitutional rescue." 
 
5.  (S/NF) Orbus claimed that YOU had established a "tactical 
alliance" with the Left to remove President Arroyo from 
office.  It hopes to isolate Arroyo loyalists -- he cited 
Philippine Army Commanding General LTG Hermogenes Esperon and 
Philippine National Police (PNP) Deputy Chief Avelino Razon 
-- to achieve a "bloodless coup" but was prepared to fight, 
if necessary.  According to Orbus, the YOU plotters had 
already discounted any meaningful response from the PNP, 
believing YOU forces could "neutralize" the Special Action 
Force (SAF). 
 
6.  (S/NF) Orbus claimed further that YOU was one of many 
small groups plotting against the government, any or some of 
which might play a "starter role" in precipitating a coup 
attempt against President Arroyo.  YOU would then seek to 
capitalize on any such effort to catalyze support for its own 
cause, Orbus described.  (Note:  A recent article in the 
respected "Newsbreak" magazine quoted one AFP officer as 
claiming the AFP was now 70 pct against President Arroyo, a 
marked increase since July, the article noted.  End note) 
 
7.  (S/NF) If it successfully seized power, YOU planned to 
abolish the Senate and House and establish an inter-regnum 
ruling council that would govern for 12 to 18 months before 
holding an election, according to Orbus.  He claimed further 
that he was helping to shape the junta's agenda.  "If it will 
happen anyway, I want to ensure a good product," he said. 
 
AFP AWARE, BUT NOT CONCERNED 
---------------------------- 
 
8.  (S/NF) Colonel Carlos Holganza, Senior Military Advisor 
to Secretary of National Defense Cruz, separately told JUSMAG 
Chief on October 26 that the DND/AFP leadership is aware of 
YOU's activities, but is not overly concerned, believing the 
organization is fractured and not representative of the AFP's 
junior officer corps.  He said that Secretary Cruz believed 
the best way to counter YOU was to continue to educate the 
troops and junior officers about defense reform.  In an 
October 22 address to Philippine Military Academy (PMA) 
cadets, Cruz urged the AFP to focus on reform and stay 
apolitical. 
 
9.  (S/NF) Holganza noted that Brigadier General Danilo Lim, 
the current Commander of the Scout Rangers -- who had been a 
member of the earlier version of YOU and one of the leaders 
of the nearly successful attempt in 1989 to overthrow 
then-president Aquino -- now fully supported the 
Constitution.  According to Holganza, BG Lim had the Scout 
Rangers -- which had participated in almost every coup 
attempt -- firmly under control. 
 
10.  (S/NF) COMMENT.  We made clear to Orbus, as we have 
categorically and repeatedly in public and private statements 
to a wide variety of interlocutors for and against the 
current Administration, that we would forcefully oppose 
extra-legal and extra-Constitutional efforts to change the 
democratically elected leadership of this country.  In 
addition to negative implications for USG assistance, we have 
highlighted the disastrous impact such efforts, successful or 
not, would have on the Philippines' international image and 
its investment climate.  Any coup attempt would be a disaster 
for this still evolving democracy and its economy.  It would 
pit the military against itself, undermine reform efforts, 
and potentially unleash a civil war, with the Communist Party 
of the Philippines/New Peoples' Army possibly seeking to reap 
the benefits.  YOU's apparent ties with Lacson and Honasan 
are troubling but not surprising.  Orbus, who sought this 
meeting and had originally hoped to introduce YOU officers 
directly to emboffs, appears to be another inveterate coup 
plotter who is maneuvering for a personal role.  The nature 
and extent of YOU's support among serving military officers 
are likely much less considerable than Orbus implied, but 
perhaps greater than we had realized.  However, Embassy at 
this time has no/no indication of any active coup planning 
among AFP units, and continues to believe that the senior AFP 
leadership in particular wishes to keep the AFP out of 
politics, as AFP Chief of Staff General Generoso Senga and 
Secretary of Defense Avelino Cruz have both stressed.  We 
 
SIPDIS 
will continue to reinforce our message and hope that 
President Arroyo's still growing unpopularity (in and out of 
the AFP) and a self-destructive Philippine penchant for coup 
plotting do not lead to more foolhardy and damaging actions 
as described by Orbus. 
 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
BELLARD