US embassy cable - 05MANILA5019

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MANILA 005019 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, INR/TNC, S/CT 
STATE PLEASE PASS TO USIP - SOLOMON 
NSC FOR H. MORROW 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2015 
TAGS: PTER, PREL, MOPS, PINS, KISL, MY, RP 
SUBJECT: GRP-MILF PEACE PROCESS ON TRACK BUT POTENTIAL 
OBSTACLES REMAIN 
 
REF: MANILA 4662 
 
Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Joseph L. Novak for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  GRP and Moro Islamic Liberation Front 
(MILF) negotiators made a breakthrough on ancestral domain 
during their 9th Exploratory Talks in Kuala Lumpur, September 
15-16.  Though both sides agreed to keep details of the talks 
confidential, a leak to the Philippine press disclosed an 
 
SIPDIS 
agreement in principle for the creation of a "Bangsamoro" 
juridical entity -- separate from the existing ARMM -- that 
would draft its own charter, levy taxes, and form legal and 
financial institutions for an expanded Muslim area in 
Mindanao.  This press leak has, among other matters: 
increased concerns about the future viability of the ARMM and 
raised hackles among members of the Moro National Liberation 
Front (MNLF).  The news re the talks is positive, but 
obstacles remain.  End Summary. 
 
Breakthrough On Ancestral Domain 
-------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Following the 9th Exploratory Talks between the GRP 
and MILF in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on September 15-16, 
Adviser to the MILF Peace Panel Michael Mastura and Office of 
the Presidential Advisor on the Peace Process (OPAPP) Peace 
Panel Secretariat member Ryan Sullivan confirmed to poloff 
that there was a breakthrough on ancestral domain.  Both 
sides held details of the negotiations close to their vests, 
however, because "sensitive issues" were said to remain on 
the agenda for the next round of peace talks scheduled for 
late 2005. 
 
3.  (C) The confidentiality was short-lived when the 
Philippine press disclosed in mid-October that the two sides 
had agreed in principle on the need to create a "Bangsamoro" 
juridical entity that would draft a charter, levy taxes, and 
form legal and financial institutions for the development of 
the five provinces (Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, Basilan, 
Sulu, Tawi-Tawi) that now make up the ARMM as well as other 
areas in Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, North 
Cotabato, and Sarangani Provinces in Mindanao.  (Note: 
Bangsamoro is a term that is used to refer to the Muslim 
Filipino people.  ARMM stands for the Autonomous Region in 
Muslim Mindanao.  End Note.)  After expressing his irritation 
over this leak to Poloff on October 18, Legal Adviser to the 
MILF Peace Panel Musib Buat confirmed its content in general 
terms and noted that the drafting of a new charter by a 
Bangsamoro government represented "real autonomy." 
 
MNLF Out in the Cold? 
--------------------- 
 
4.  (C) MNLF Foreign Affairs Minister and former ARMM 
Governor Parouk Hussin reportedly stated on October 22 that 
the Arroyo Administration had insulted and effectively dumped 
the MNLF by agreeing to create a Bangsamoro juridical entity. 
 Hussin was also quoted as saying that the agreement with the 
MILF was also an insult to the Organization of Islamic 
Conference (OIC) which brokered the 1996 GRP-MNLF Peace 
Agreement.  Combined with the MNLF's loss of the recent ARMM 
gubernatorial race, this development has added to perceptions 
by MNLF officials that they are being left out in the cold. 
(Note:  The OIC continues to recognize the MNLF as the 
legitimate representative of the Bangsamoro people.  As of 
late October, OIC member Saudi Arabia pledged USD 50 million 
for development and socio-economic projects in the ARMM which 
the MNLF sees as the only appropriate Muslim entity in the 
Philippines.  Saudi Ambassador to the Philippines Ameen Wali 
has offered to facilitate a meeting between ARMM Governor 
Zaldy Ampatuan and officials of the Islamic Development Bank, 
Saudi Development Bank, and Muslim World League to discuss 
future development projects.  End Note.) 
 
5.  (C) While acknowledging that a Bangsamoro juridical 
entity could supplant the ARMM, MILF Advisor Buat described 
the MILF as the "true representative" of the Bangsamoro 
people unlike the MNLF which only focused on 
"self-enrichment."  Speaking in reference to the bitter 
criticism and complaints voiced by Parouk Hussin and other 
high ranking members of the MNLF since the August 8 election 
of Ampatuan as ARMM Governor, Buat called the MNLF "cry 
babies" and noted that "they had their chance and squandered 
it."  According to Buat, Ampatuan -- whose family has not 
been on the best of terms with members of the MILF -- 
promised Malacanang that he would not be an obstacle to peace 
in Mindanao. 
 
Opposition Criticizes Preliminary Agreement 
------------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) Former Senator Francisco Tatad -- the alleged 
source of the "Gloriagate tapes" that helped trigger 
impeachment hearings against President Arroyo -- used the 
leak in the press regarding a Bangsamoro juridical entity to 
attack the Arroyo Government for "partitioning" the 
Philippines without the knowledge of the Filipino people. 
Other political and former military figures expressing 
opposition to the theoretical creation of this new entity 
included Zamboanga City Mayor Celso Lobregat, House Deputy 
Minority leader Rolex Suplico, and former Armed Forces of the 
Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff Fortunato Abat.  Executive 
Secretary Eduardo Ermita has responded to these critics by 
 
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noting that a federal state in Muslim Mindanao could only be 
established by shifting to a parliamentary-federal system of 
government through an amendment to the 1987 Constitution. 
(Note:  Amid much discussion of the issue of possible change 
in the House and Senate, a Consultative Constitutional 
Commission that recently was created by an Executive Order 
from Arroyo has been conducting nationwide consultations on 
proposed changes to the Constitution -- see Reftel.  End 
Note.) 
 
Words of Praise 
--------------- 
 
7.  (U) In an apparent follow-up to the September 16 Joint 
Statement (see Para 12 for full text) by the GRP and MILF 
Peace Panels in Kuala Lumpur that cited "President 
Gloria-Macapagal Arroyo's firm commitment to lasting and 
durable peace," the MILF leadership recently expressed more 
words of rare praise for Arroyo through its website -- 
"Luwuran."  On October 19, MILF Vice-Chairman for Military 
Affairs Aleem Abdul Mimbantas "extolled Malaysian Prime 
Minister His Excellency Muhammad Ahmad Badawi and Her 
Excellency President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo for their 
sincere efforts for the success of the ongoing peace 
process." 
 
Continued Optimism and a Plea for Help 
-------------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) During a "confidential" briefing to foreign diplomats 
on October 26, GRP Secretary of Foreign Affairs Alberto G. 
Romulo and GRP Peace Panel Chairman Silvestre C. Afable 
expressed optimism that an accord on ancestral domain could 
be reached by December 2005 and a comprehensive peace 
agreement by mid-2006.  While he said popular support for the 
peace process has increased, Afable remarked that "certain 
quarters" wanted to undermine the negotiations by raising 
controversial issues to the public through the media. 
 
9.  (C) In responding to concerns that the MNLF was being 
left out in the cold, Afable said that the OIC-GRP-MNLF 
Tri-partite Commission would be reactivated, but that support 
is needed from the OIC and the international community to 
build bridges between the MNLF and MILF, and encourage 
consolidation of a fragmented MNLF leadership. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
10. (C) The GRP and MILF appear committed to continuing 
negotiations regarding ancestral domain and governance. 
Though some details from the last round of talks in Kuala 
Lumpur were disclosed by the press as well as Afable during 
his October 26 briefing, it remains unclear how close both 
sides may actually be to resolving contentious issues which 
include territorial jurisdiction and control over natural 
resources.  The recent extension through October 2006 of the 
Malaysian-led International Monitoring Team (IMT) and efforts 
of the Ad Hoc Joint Action Group (AHJAG) to apprehend 
suspected criminals and terrorists bode well for the peace 
process, but many potential obstacles (terrorism, 
clan/organizational rivalries, and domestic politics) remain 
along the way to a final GRP-MILF peace agreement. 
 
11.  (C) For example, news of MNLF concerns is a potential 
road block to future progress between the GRP and the MILF. 
The MNLF, an organization about three times the size of the 
MILF, has been at peace with the GRP since 1996 (though 
violence has flared up at times between breakaway MNLF 
factions and the GRP).  The USG has worked and continues to 
work in partnership with the MNLF, GRP, and ARMM officials in 
carrying out development programs ("Arms to Farms" and 
others) that have helped to consolidate the GRP-MNLF peace. 
The GRP can ill-afford a deterioration of its relationship 
with the MNLF.  End Comment. 
 
Joint Statement of GRP and MILF Peace Panels 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
12. (U) The complete text of the September 16 Joint Statement 
by the Chairmen of the GRP and MILF Peace Panels follows: 
 
Begin: 
 
The 9th Exploratory Talks between the Government of the 
Republic of the Philippines (GRP) and the Moro Islamic 
Liberation Front (MILF) ended today with the Parties 
successfully concluding the most difficult hurdle on the 
ancestral domain agenda. 
 
The Technical Working Groups (TWGs) on Governance together 
with the GRP and MILF Peace Panels met in Kuala Lumpur from 
15-16 September 2005 to continue negotiations under the 
ancestral domain agenda.  The meeting was conducted in a 
cordial atmosphere despite the complexity of the subject. 
The TWGs in consultation with their respective Peace Panels 
succeeded in resolving the unfinished contentious issues from 
the last meeting in Port Dickson.  Both sides adopted the 
consensus points on the strand of governance. 
 
With this breakthrough, the peace process is on track to 
complete the ancestral domain agenda before the end of the 
year.  The addition of the ancestral domain accord to the 
previous agreements already signed on Security (2001) and 
Rehabilitation and Development (2002) completes the 
requirement of the Tripoli Agreement on Peace of 2001. 
 
The Malaysian Secretariat acknowledges the high level of 
trust and confidence between the Panels and their respective 
TWGs for their vital role in ensuring the successful conduct 
of the discussions on the ancestral domain aspect. 
 
Simultaneously the peace panels also met to discuss and 
address several issues of concern to both parties. 
 
The Parties recognize the efforts of the Ad Hoc Joint Action 
Group (AHJAG) relative to the ongoing operations against 
criminal groups in Maguindanao to wind up before the end of 
the month, and stress on the need for closer coordination to 
avoid the undue and prolonged displacement of local 
communities in affected areas. In this light, joint efforts 
to extend appropriate relief and livelihood assistance to 
affected communities will be undertaken. 
 
The Parties will work towards strengthening the 
socio-economic monitoring function of the International 
Monitoring Team (IMT). Towards this end, other countries will 
be invited to participate in the monitoring process.  Both 
parties thank Malaysia, Libya, and Brunei for extending the 
IMT tour of duty in Mindanao. 
 
The Parties express their gratitude to H.E. Prime Minister 
Dato Seri Abdullah bin Haji Ahmad Badawi for the Malaysian 
Government's continued support to the GRP-MILF peace process. 
 The Parties likewise acknowledge H.E. President Gloria 
Macapagal-Arroyo's firm commitment to lasting and durable 
peace. 
 
Done this 16th of September 2005 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. 
 
For the GRP:  Sec Silvestre C. Afable, Jr., Chairman, GRP 
Peace Panel 
 
For the MILF:  Mohagher Iqbal, Chairman, MILF Peace Panel 
 
End. 
 
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