US embassy cable - 05MEXICO6479

UNCLAS MEXICO 006479 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, MX 
SUBJECT: FELIPE CALDERON WINS PAN PRIMARY 
 
REF: A. MEXICO 5527 
     B. MEXICO 6089 
     C. MEXICO 6415 
 
1. Summary:  Former Energy Secretary Felipe Calderon won 
PAN,s third regional primary election on Sunday, October 23 
with 58 percent of the vote, and avoided a run-off election 
by winning just over 50 percent of the cumulative vote.  Both 
former Interior Secretary Santiago Creel, once thought to be 
the favorite, and former Environmental Secretary Alberto 
Cardenas, conceded Sunday night and encouraged their 
followers to support Calderon.  End Summary. 
 
2. Calderon won 13 of the 14 states that voted in the October 
23 primary, taking home 58 percent of the vote.  Totaling all 
three regional primary elections, Calderon won 24 of 
Mexico,s 31 states and 51.79 percent of the vote.  Santiago 
Creel, reputedly President Fox,s favorite, won 24 percent of 
the vote in the third election and 32.29 percent of the 
cumulative vote.  Alberto Cardenas proved victorious only his 
home state of Jalisco, and won only 15.91 percent of the 
cumulative vote.  Over 300,000 Panistas voted in the three 
primary elections, including almost 200 members of the PAN 
living outside of Mexico who voted by internet, with 112 of 
those votes going to Calderon. 
 
3. Both Creel and Cardenas gave press conferences on the 
evening of October 23 admitting defeat and encouraging their 
followers to support Calderon.  The PAN,s electoral 
committee, however, received six complaints about 
irregularities in the third primary including a voting 
station that did not open in Michoacan, and unauthorized 
transportation being provided to voters in Morelos, Guerrero 
and Sonora.  The electoral committee is investigating the 
complaints, but their results are not expected to affect the 
outcome of the election.  Immediately following the second 
regional primary on October 2, the results from two voting 
stations in the Yucatan, where less than 400 people cast 
their ballots, were questioned by the Creel camp due to 
complaints of irregularities.  These votes were annulled the 
day before the third primary after an investigation by the 
PAN's electoral committee.  Creel,s supporters challenged 
the results of 45 voting stations in the Yucatan, where 
Calderon obtained over 70 percent of the vote. 
 
4.   Comment:  The PAN leadership is priding itself on being 
the only major political party to hold transparent and 
democratic primary elections.  PRD candidate Andres Manuel 
Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has no competition for his party's 
nomination.  The PRI's brief-lived primary was marked by 
mud-slinging and character assassination, prompting one 
contender to leave the race and the second may well do so 
before a single primary ballot is cast.    This would leave 
former PRI president Roberto Madrazo as the "unity" 
candidate, and settle the major-party line-up for 2006. 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
KELLY